Tools to Victory!

I don't know about you, but my favorite part of each and every Joe Buck/Tim McCarver-broadcast is McCarver's segment entitled "keys to victory." Unfortunately for the popular tool franchise, Home Depot drew the short stick when picking advertising space and was stuck with the aptly renamed "Home Depot's Tools to Victory." This is unfortunate for two reasons: 1) Tim McCarver is saying and thinking up the tools to victory and 2) the tools to victory that are being said and thought up are by Tim McCarver. In case you missed it (which I find hard to believe because it is the most thought-provoking, knowledge-based portion of an already crisp, chemistry-filled, intelligently-weaved, and inspiring part of every broadcast), here it is:

Phillies

Playing with house money, Pedro is the croupier.

Yankees

Must win? You better believe it!

That was an actual graphic on a nationally-televised broadcast of the mother thumpin' World Series. The Phillies would have won game 2 Thursday night if only they had envisioned themselves gambling at a casino while Pedro Martinez collected and paid bets of fellow gamblers. Instead, the Phillies spent all their time drinking, gambling, and coming up with half-baked plans to "beat the house" and completely forgot to swing at all of A.J. Burnett's backdoor curveballs. In the meantime, Pedro was going about his business and doing his job as the croupier while Ryan Howard got high in the bathroom laughing his ass off while gazing at "The Men Who Stare at Goats" movie poster. "Clooney is an army Jedi warrior!" he would say as he laughed hysterically, striking out four times and turning fake double plays in the process.

The Yankees executed a much simpler plan of attack against the Phillies: win. I wonder how creative McCarver will get with his game 3 Tools to Victory. I came up with a few that I think should play well.

"Experimenting with Performance-Enhancing drugs, Pettitte is the supplier."

"Flying to Hawaii, Victorino is the travel agent."

"Rising from the dead, Derek Jeter is Christ."

"Touring the red-light district, Jimmy Rolilns is your guide."

"Win or be forced to play Game 4 down 2-1."

"May the best Molina win."

Stay tuned.

Does It Get Any Better Than This?

Steve Phillips is now a part of the "Sunday Night Baseball" broadcast team, alongside Joe Morgan and Jon Miller. This, without a doubt, is the best news of the young season. I've watched half an inning of the Cubs/Phillies game and already we have a gem from our good friend, Joey M. (I like to rhyme). For a few minutes, Joe went on about how the Cubs manager, Lou Piniella, splits up his righties and lefties in the batting order and how it isn't smart to give your best hitter, Aramis Ramirez (presumably), fewer at-bats because it really doesn't make much of a difference to have consecutive righties or lefties. Okay, sounds reasonable enough, right? Ah, but wait, this is Mr. Morgan we're talking about, we should know by now that he just can't leave it at that. So he proceeds to say this:

**Paraphrase**
"You see, in Philadelphia their three best hitters--Rollins, Utley, and Howard-- are left-handed, but they bat them all in a row. That's the difference between Manuel (Phillies Manager) and Lou."

He goes on to cite this quite a few times as he chastises Piniella for batting Ramirez fifth in the lineup as opposed to having his best hitters in their deserving spots regardless of whether they bat right or left. There's only one thing wrong with this comparison that Joe keeps pointing to: THE PHILLIES HAVE NOT ONCE HAD A ROLLINS/UTLEY/HOWARD BATTING ORDER THIS SEASON. In fact, the only time Manuel did that during the entire '08 season was that strange two week stretch where he had Utley batting second, followed by Rollins and Howard (not a horrible idea, btw, just strange in the sense that he never did it again).

I don't understand how Joe Morgan can consistently be allowed to consistently say stupid shit on a consistent basis despite his consistent idiotic remarks week in and week out.

Yes, it's now been nearly five months since FJM disbanded, and I am sad.

Phil Sheridan is Out of Whack!

And you thought we wouldn't be able to find anything negative about the MVP selection. Phil Sheridan: MVP voting is out of whack.

Ryan Howard was the most valuable player in the National League in 2008. That he was not voted MVP by the Baseball Writers' Association of America says more about the association than about Howard, Albert Pujols or America.

I agree with Sheridan in that the BBWAA's selection of Albert Pujols says a lot about the voters--they're actually getting smarter. We just witnessed a player lose the NL MVP Award despite leading the league in homeruns and RBI! Not to mention the fact he had an awesome September! And I think we should all know by now that games in September count approximately 4.8 times as much as games that take place in any other month (4.8 is the mean, of course, since games in April obviously only count for .006 the amount of your standard September game). Also...

Ryan Howard 2008:
5.0 WARP1

If the MVP is the player with the best all-round statistical season, a computer could figure that out. And a computer might well have spit out Pujols' name this season. He was terrific.

Statistics are an objective account of what took place. In order to know and understand one's value you must look at what took place. Therefore, you must look at statistics to objectively understand a player's value. I know, MIND-BOGGLING! Also...

Ryan Howard 2008:
.339 OBP (NL League Average: .343)

But Howard got hot in September, hitting 11 home runs and driving in 32 runs to carry the Phillies into the playoffs. That's the very definition of valuable.

Those are very good numbers. But if I'm not mistaken, there are over 130 regular season games that aren't even played in September. I'm uncertain as to why these games are carried out, seeing as they hold so little value in the standings, but nevertheless they count. Just for kicks, though, let's see what happened in those other non-September/meaningless months.

March-August (Ryan Howard):
.234/.324/.490--.814 OPS

March-August (Albert Pujols):
.364/.468/.643--1.111 OPS

Interesting... too bad it's irrelevant. Baseball should just be a 30 game season that takes place over the course of one month. There should be no days off and the MVP should be given to the player who performs the best (aka is the most clutch) over the last 5 days of the season.

The group-think association argument for Pujols, if I'm smart enough to get it right, is that he single-handedly kept the Cardinals in the wild-card race. That is brilliant, except it ignores the presence of Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus (so much for "single-handedly")

Chase Utley. Pat Burrell. Jimmy Rollins. Jayson Werth. Shane Victorino. Cole Hamels. Jamie Moyer. J.C. Romero. Chad Durbin. Ryan Madson. Brad Lidge.

No, Albert Pujols didn't "single-handedly" carry his team, but it's not like he had anywhere near the supporting cast that Ryan Howard possessed. If I were to make an MVP ballot of strictly 2008 Phillies players, it would look something like this:

1. Chase Utley
2. Cole Hamels
3. Brad Lidge
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Jayson Werth
6. Shane Victorino
7. Pat Burrell
8. Ryan Howard

Chase Utley is far and away the best player on this team. He has lost to an inferior teammate twice already and came very close again this year. He finished 15th(!) in the MVP voting this past season. THAT is what's wrong with the BBWAA. Also...

Ryan Howard 2008:
25 Win Shares (T-12th)

The association seamheads love to throw around stats - OPS, VORP, ASPCA - to make a case for Pujols.

I had no idea that the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals shared the same name as an imaginary, unoriginal baseball statistic.

Yes, he (Pujols) struck out less and hit for a higher average. But Howard won actual baseball games in an honest-Abe pennant race. He had 11 more home runs than Pujols, scored five more runs than Pujols, and drove in 30 more runs than Pujols.

Notice there are no decimal points involved there, only whole numbers that made a difference in real baseball games.

You know this guy's gotta be a supporter of batting average. Do you think he's aware that those include decimals? Here's a whole number for you, Phil: 475. That's the number of outs Howard made this past season, the 8th most in the league. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

Ryan Howard - who has added a World Series ring to his 2005 rookie of the year and 2006 MVP trophies - will survive this voting nicely. The process that produced it should not.

The voting "process" is fine. It's the voters themselves that most likely need to be changed. However, it would appear that some smarter ones are sneaking their way in there and these past awards would be an indication of that. Sure, there's still some stupid people out there (who the fuck voted for Jose Valverde?), but I think the system is, in fact, improving. Oh, and lastly...

Ryan Howard 2008:
36.6 VORP (29th in NL)

Albert Pujols 2008:
98.7 VORP (1st in MLB)

The World is Becoming a Better Place

Of the players who have lead the league in RBIs and Home Runs and made the playoffs all in the same season, Ryan Howard is the first to not win the MVP.

I take this as a sign that the BBWAA is getting better at doing their jobs. They gave the award to the right guy instead of following the same pattern they have for decades and rewarding a player for how good his teammates are and putting way too much weight on a small cross section of his plate appearances.

I don't say this often, but good job, Baseball Writers.



. . . now about Chase Utley finishing 15th. . .

Manny 4 VP!

Had enough MVP talk yet? Cool, me neither. If you read the Press-Enterprise, you undoubtedly have heard of column-writer Gregg Patton. For those of you who have not, you're in for a treat.

Manny Ramirez is in LA now, so it figures he'd get movie star-style hype.

But he deserves the Most Valuable Player Award about as much as he deserves an Oscar.

Cute analogy. LA, Movie Star, Oscar--classic. But yeah, I pretty much agree here. Manny for MVP = Dumbass Decision

Putting the Dodgers left fielder in the MVP discussion is just silly talk. He's been a difference-maker only slightly longer than Sarah Palin.

Another great analogy. Spot on. Although, if we're going to put the impact of Manny on the same level as Palin, I think it'd be safe to say that Manny deserves the MVP.

Anyway, me and Gregg are still pretty much in agreement at this point.

Two months does not an MVP make, no matter his statistics or the effect on the team. It wouldn't be an issue if the league had a clear-cut candidate. But if Ryan Howard gets Philadelphia past the New York Mets or into the wild-card spot, it suddenly has one.

Wow...

Ryan Howard
.337 OBP-- 51st in NL
.874 OPS-- 20th in NL
31.6 VORP-- 33rd in NL
4.6 WARP1-- Bad

Manny Ramirez
4.6 WARP1-- In 467 less plate appearances

I would seriously give the MVP to Manny Ramirez over Ryan Howard at this point (neither one even comes close to deserving it, though). It puzzles me how Howard can be considered for MVP despite having an OBP ten points below league average. Also, Carlos Delgado > Ryan Howard. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

The fact that the Dreaded One

lol... Clever.

has been averaging about an RBI per game and a home run every three games, and that his batting average is pushing .400, makes a pretty good case -- for a second consecutive Player of the Month citation, but not the big trophy.

How he manages to go from insane to sane in a matter of sentences is a mystery to me.

And now let's move on to the AL:

As good as the Angels are, they have only one MVP candidate, and he's a dubious choice because he's a relief pitcher.

Oh boy... I think we all see where this is going.

I'm not a big fan of pitchers winning the MVP anyway -- since they have their own Cy Young Award to put on the mantle -- but Francisco Rodriguez will get votes and deserve them.

Yes, he will get votes. No, he will not deserve them.

Interestingly, while it's a foregone conclusion that Cleveland's Cliff Lee will get the Cy Young, K-Rod and his record-breaking number of saves made the Angels the best team in the league.

That right there sums up the absurdity of the interpretation of the MVP award. Cliff Lee will be deemed the superior pitcher, while K-Rod will be deemed as being more valuable to his team. So basically, less production equals greater value. I know, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Also, while it's still very debatable as to whether or not the Angels are the best team in the league, I think it's safe to say that if they were to claim that spot it would be largely in part to the addition of Mark Teixeira, who has a 179 OPS+ with them in 43 games. Francisco Rodriguez does not make them the best team in the league.

Sounds like an MVP in a league that really doesn't have a standout candidate.

I just have one thing to say to this.

Clifton.





Phifer.





Lee.



And one lonely tidbit on football before we go.

After the Chargers lost their first game to Carolina on the last play of the game, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers said that blowout wins were nice, but the most fun he has in football is playing in tight games that come down to the wire. Maybe so, but I'm guessing he'd be more than thrilled with one of those blowout wins right about now.

Some things, Capt. Obvious, just go without saying.