tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24092172263249579882024-03-14T09:22:23.821-07:00And That HappenedNo Straw Hats or StogiesGrifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.comBlogger265125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-66445558663230806332012-08-03T08:22:00.002-07:002012-08-03T08:37:27.756-07:00Behold my complete lack of surprise.<span style="font-family: inherit;">[First of all, <a href="http://aballgirl.blogspot.com/2008/07/you-mean-you-want-them-to-start-wearing.html">I was wrong about the suits</a>.]</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Four years ago I <a href="http://and-that-happened.blogspot.com/2008/08/matt-grevers-is-from-chicago.html">tore apart</a> a Jay Mariotti article that was ostensibly about Matt Grevers but was actually a thinly-veiled attack on Michael Phelps. A couple days later, he was fired. Because <i>post hoc ergo propter hoc</i> isn't really a logical fallacy, watch out, Joe Posnanski! I'm comin' after you!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Anyone who has become my friend since August of 2005 is baffled to find out that during the Olympics, I don't watch baseball. Everyone who has known me since before August of 2005 just nods and says, "yes, of course, this is Skye and these are the Olympics. It would be silly to expect her to do anything <i>but</i> devote 20 hours of her life every day to watching them."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">And in particular, it's swimming. My first Olympic memory is from 1992, Pablo Morales swimming the 100m fly. I hardly remember much about it at all, just him standing at the block and then the camera following them down and back across this beautiful, sparkling outdoor pool. It wasn't until 8 years later that I made the decision to be a competitive swimmer myself, but Pablo's swim will always be first in my mind.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I just wanted to give you a <i>little</i> background so you could fully grasp my dedication to the Olympics, swimming specifically. I don't just follow this sport once every four years like most of America. For eight years I lived this sport and <i>literally</i> breathed chlorine. I've been out of the water for three years, but I've still kept up with the international swimming world.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Hopefully my investment in this sport goes far enough to show you <i>why</i> this article I'm about to dissect is so offensive to me. I'm not an elitist snob, I'm not telling anyone to "get off my yard" or stop covering the sport or anything like that. All I'm asking is that if you decide to write an article about swimming, get it right.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Joe Posnanski published "<a href="http://sportsonearthblog.com/2012/08/02/a-sweet-surprise-even-for-phelps/">A Sweet Surprise, Even For Phelps</a>" this morning. After tweeting him angrily about calling Michael Phelps <i>old</i> on Saturday, I decided I needed to go further on this one. Here we go:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>LONDON — Al Oerter won the discus four Olympics in a row. I asked him a few years back which of those was the sweetest, and he said without hesitation that it was the last one, in 1968, in Mexico City, when he was injured and, for his sport, old.</i></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>“Why?” I asked.</i></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit;">“Because,” he said, “that was the one nobody thought I could win.”</span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh. I know where this is going.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>Michael Phelps has more Olympic medals than anyone. He has more Olympic golds than anyone. He has done things that have scrambled the brain — first, in 2004, winning eight medals in one Olympics (something no one had done in a non-boycotted Games), and then, because that did not seem impressive enough, winning eight gold medals in Beijing in 2008. He has dominated races and won others by the outstretched tips of his fingers. He has won under the most intense international pressure and with his mother watching from the crowd.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"> True, true, true, true, true, true, true, why are we talking about his mom?</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;">You get the feeling that someday, when he looks back on it all, Thursday’s victory in the 200-meter individual medley might be the one he remembers with the most pride.</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yeah, that's possible. I think it might be Beijing's 4x100m free relay, though. Or maybe London's 4x200m free relay? I dunno, we'll have to ask Mike in a few years.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;">This was the race Phelps was not supposed to win.</span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">WHOA. But okay, I can see that. Ryan Lochte has been pretty badass about that 200IM, polysuits or no.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;">He’s proven at these Olympics that he’s still an amazing swimmer … but he’s not quite the same. He did not medal in the 400-meter individual medley — the first time since he was 15 that he did not medal in an Olympic event. He was edged out in the 200-meter butterfly, and Phelps had owned that event the way Ray Charles owned the song “Georgia on My Mind.”</span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I will just note here that the 400IM was a race for which he had trained only 9 months. That might seem like a long time to you, but it's not. The 200 fly was just ... I don't even know. Chad le Clos was spectacular, we'll just say that.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>Anyway, the 200 IM was Ryan Lochte’s event. Lochte broke Phelps’ world record in the event three years ago, and then for good measure he broke it again. Lochte won the 200 IM at the 2009 World Championships and 2011 World Championships, and he qualified with the fastest time. The question going into this race did not seem to be if Phelps could beat Lochte, but if Phelps could medal at all.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">True, true, true, true, true, wait WHAT.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i style="line-height: 23px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The question going into this race did not seem to be if Phelps could beat Lochte, but if Phelps could medal at all.</span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Can I ask who in the world was asking this question in particular? Because EVERYTHING I read leading up to the heats, semifinals, and finals had it a toss-up for <i>gold</i> between Lochte and Phelps. There was <i>never</i> a question that Michael wouldn't medal. There was <i>never</i> a question that it wouldn't ultimately be a race between those two men. Yes, we talked about Brazil's Pereira. Yes, we talked about Japan's Matsuda. But the 200m IM is not the 400m IM and so why ---</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh. I get it.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">You thought the 200 IM is just like the 400 IM, just half as long, and since Michael didn't medal in the 4 that meant his shot at the 2 was somehow diminished and in jeopardy? Well, this kind of analysis is to be expected from someone who likely only keeps track of the sport for 8 days every four years. Why I have higher expectations of sports journalists, I'll never know. But I'll get further into that later, let's move on for now.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>Maybe Phelps liked the doubts. Maybe he didn’t. Athletes are different about that sort of thing. I’ve always thought that some athletes (perhaps like Michael Jordan and Tom Brady) are driven by disrespect, real or imagined, while others (like perhaps Tiger Woods) enjoy being feared as the unequivocal best in their sport. Phelps? Who really knows? He has always kept his own motivations close, and his emotions closer.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"> I thought it was pretty well-publicized that Michael had a newspaper clipping containing a quote from Ian Thorpe doubting that Michael could win 8 gold medals in one Games? Didn't we know that Michael thrives on people doubting him? "Who really knows"?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Having watched every single Olympic race in Michael's career, I can tell you that his face is pretty easy to read. What he hasn't done (until his last two medal wins, really) is <i>talk</i> about his emotions very well.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>On Thursday, he did crack a little bit. He admitted that he spent some time thinking about how it is all winding down. He even talked with Lochte before the race about it being their last. </i><b style="font-style: italic;">Phelps knew that if he was going to have any chance to win the race, he would have to grab it right away, in the opening 50 meters of butterfly. </b><i>Phelps is the best butterfly swimmer of all time. After the butterfly, the advantage would swing to Lochte, who is better in both the backstroke and breaststroke. Phelps’ strategy had to be — and was — to go out as fast as he could and make do with what he had left at the end. </i>[emphasis mine]</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Here I will direct you to SwimSwam.com and <a href="http://swimswam.com/2012/08/nerding-out-who-will-win-the-200-im-phelps-or-lochte/">a post</a> by <a href="http://www.swimnerd.com/Phelps_v.html">SwimNerd</a> because if there's one thing more ridiculous than Joe Posnanski writing about swimming, it's Joe Posnanski <i>analyzing</i> swimming. A line of note from Swimnerd for our purposes here:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 20px;"><i>Thus, I’m going to assume this first 50 is not what matters. If you asked me 4 years ago, it’d probably be a different story because Phelps was such a better flyer at that point.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">There you go.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>He went out blazingly fast. He took the lead immediately. It was an all-out blitz. Lochte never stood a chance. Phelps kept that lead through the backstroke, through the breaststroke, even seemed to build it. After he made his final turn, Phelps was ahead of world-record pace. This was Phelps as he had been in Beijing, as he had been in Athens, the greatest swimmer of all time. He touched the wall at 1:54.27 — just four-hundredths of a second slower than his time when he won the gold medal in Beijing. Lochte was a distant second, at least by swimming terms.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I won't go into the details -- you can look at their 2011 World Championships splits on the previous link and the splits for yesterday's final <a href="http://www.london2012.com/swimming/event/men-200m-individual-medley/phase=swm052100/index.html">here</a> (Laszlo Cseh with hair is too much to handle) -- but .... Lochte did stand a chance. He's split faster than he went yesterday. If you're going to say he didn't stand a chance, maybe you should have acknowledged the fact that he was a half an hour removed from the 200m backstroke final. The key to which is, in Lochte's own words, "I don't know ... my legs hurt."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This was the Phelps who had trained for a whole Olympic cycle for the 200 IM. Like I mentioned before, he hadn't done that for the 400 IM, only allowing himself to get talked into it by Lochte himself with less than a year until London.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">I wouldn't call a little more than half a second a "distant" second. Maybe in Michael Phelps terms it seems that way, but 2-3 seconds is generally considered a blowout. Lochte <i>did</i> run down Laszlo Cseh in that last 50 meters, which probably deserves some kind of mention.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>What had Phelps done? This was his 20th medal and his 16th gold, both records. But those are just numbers. He became the first man to win the same swimming event at three straight Olympics. But that is just another record.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yeah, actually, that's another number. I'm not sure what purpose this paragraph serves.</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="line-height: 23px;">No, what happened here was something different, something that in a career of unprecedented achievement is hard to describe. And, sure enough, Phelps had a hard time explaining it. He talked about how proud he was to three-peat. He talked about how he wished he would have brought it home a little faster and broken the world record. He talked about how his career is almost over now — he has just the 100-meter butterfly and the 4 x 100-meter medley relay left.</span> </i></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 23px;"><i>But two expressions might have told the story better than his words. The first expression came in the instant when Phelps realized that he had won, just after he touched the wall and looked back at the scoreboard. There was no splash of victory, no wild-armed celebration. He looked, well, dumbfounded.</i></span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>The second expression came on the medal stand, where tears were building in his eyes.</i></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>He has been surprising the world for years. It’s possible, just possible, that on Thursday night Michael Phelps surprised himself.</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"> I have never heard Michael talk so much in a poolside interview as after his 19th and 20th career medal wins. I think that it has <i>something</i> to do with accomplishing the final goal that we presume has been on his secret goal sheet since at least Beijing, if not forever. Maybe since he's finally done it, become the most decorated Olympian of all time, he is relieved of all the pressure. And everything else after that 19th medal is just icing on the cake. I don't think Michael was <i>surprised</i> that he won the 200 IM. Most of the swimming world would have been surprised had he <i>not</i>. I think the look we saw on his face was one of relief, recognition of that fulfillment of personal expectation.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But I don't know. I'm not in his head (and I really wouldn't want to be). All I can go on is the last 12 years of watching him race, in person and on television, and when the meets weren't broadcast watching the little bars advance across the screen at omegatiming.com. I remember in 2005 watching World Championships on a livestream from Hungary because that was the only video feed available. The lag was severe and the quality was poor, but that's how I saw <a href="http://omegatiming.com/File/Download?id=00010509005D000000FFFFFFFFFFFF01">Michael Phelps lose to Ian Crocker</a> in the 100 fly.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">His impending retirement didn't hit me until he'd started talking about how they were chronicling his "lasts" in the month leading up to the Olympics -- last Trials win, last double, last practice, last semi-final, and on Saturday, it will be his last race. Ever. We did that same chronicle our senior year on my college team. The freshmen made fun of us, but I remember saying, "This is out last first practice" and then, months later, "This is our last double." And then "our last race." That's when it hits you, when you realize that the moment you're experiencing doesn't get to happen again. No more first practices of the season. No more excitement after you complete your last morning practice, or qualify for your last final. It's over.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But this wasn't about Michael Phelps and his retirement. This was supposed to be about the mainstream media having no clue about swimming, just pretending to have one when the Olympics are on. Mr. Posnanski, leave the analysis up to the experts, the commentary up to the enthusiasts, and sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Michael Phelps is still the favorite in the 100 fly. America is still the favorite in the 4x100 medley relay. Don't worry, after Saturday no one will expect you to write about the most decorated Olympian of all time, so you won't have to pretend to have a clue anymore. You're not fooling anyone anyway.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But at least you didn't call Michael Phelps slow.</span><br />
<br />Skyehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16544910905468790316noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-73547734630175640652011-06-24T00:25:00.000-07:002011-06-24T00:33:11.790-07:00The Vindication of Josh Willingham in 20 Plate Appearances<div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span id="internal-source-marker_0.6020207954570651" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Don’t EVER get into internet arguments with idiotic baseball fans.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">I spent about an hour gathering stats to prove a stupid argument in which I don’t even believe because the OTHER guy is making an argument even </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">dumber.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I came </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">thisclose</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> to arguing that Josh Willingham is clutch.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">I don’t </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">actually</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> think Willingham is clutch, but I also don’t think he is anti-clutch, and not just because I don’t believe in clutch as a concept. I think he’s probably just like every other major leaguer in that he performs roughly the same in close-and-late situations as he does in the rest of the game. Which I guess is actually just not believing in clutch as a concept.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">That would be simple to argue, that Willingham performs the same in stressful and non-stressful situations. But that wasn’t what was on the table. I won’t quote here exactly what was said, since the Facebook group from which this issue originated is not public (you can join, however -- formerly known as Fire Bob Geren, it is now known as Now that Geren’s Gone, It’s time for some Hope! -- beware of terrible spelling, cringe-worthy grammar, and idiocy), but I will give you assertions and parameters eventually given to me by, well, we’ll call him AJ:</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 1: Willingham does nothing but strike out in clutch situations. </span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 2: Willingham strikes out in late game clutch situations. Every time AJ has seen Willingham hit in the 7th inning or later, he more than likely strikes out or gets out in general.*</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 3: Willingham is one of the league leaders in strikeouts. (True!)</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 4: Most of Willingham’s strikeouts come late in the game.** </span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 5: According to AJ’s eyes, Willingham has hit better when the team is winning than when the team is losing.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Assertion 6: If you looked at Willingham’s last 10 at bats with the team losing, and his last 10 at bats with the team winning, he probably strikes out more with the team losing.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">This is where I come in. This seemed too good to pass up. I had AJ define ONE LAST TIME what he meant by “late” (I didn’t want to do a bunch of research [no baseball-reference sub] and then have him move the goalposts again) and started in. He said the 9th inning, maybe 8th depending on when he came up in the order. I added in the 7th because … well, if I didn’t, I could be looking at games back into April and I am not that dedicated to this argument.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">In order to find the last 10 Willingham plate appearances*** with the A’s losing, I used the games played on June 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14. He played on June 15-17, but no plate appearances while the team was losing.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">In order to find the last 10 Willingham plate appearances with the A’s losing, I used the games played on May 14, 22, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, June 3, 4, and 16. June 15 and June 17 had no eligible plate appearances, since he was injured on June 17 and did not come to the plate in the later innings on the 15th. Since the A’s have been terrible lately, you can see it took a lot more games to get those plate appearances in winning situations.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Okay, results. I’m sure you’re all waiting with bated breath. Not baited breath, because that would be gross.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">In games that the A’s were losing, Josh Willingham struck out 5 times, hit one single, walked once, and flew**** out thrice to right field. Eight of Willingham’s plate appearances while losing resulted in outs.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">In games that the A’s were winning, Josh Willingham struck out 3 times, reached on a fielder’s choice once, hit one double, one home run, walked twice, lined out to short, and popped out to first. Six of Willingham’s plate appearances while winning resulted in outs.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">The first of those losing strikeouts was on June 14th in the 9th inning to end the game. Willingham saw 6 pitches, the last of which was a called strike. I took score in that game and noted that the called strike was actually a ball. There’s no way of knowing what Willingham would have done in what would have been a 3-2 count, but that brings the strikeout ratio a little closer.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">On the surface, with these ridiculous parameters and definitions, AJ is infuriatingly right. But that’s like saying someone is right who says Barack Obama is a bad president because gas prices are too high. Yeah, okay, maybe he’s a bad president, but it’s not because of gas prices! This is when someone can be right but also so trrbly, trrrrrrrbly***** wrong.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Small sample size, first of all. No one besides, like, Tim McCarver should care what Josh Willingham has done in his last ten plate appearances </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">while the team was winning or losing</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">. I briefly considered going through and logging what he’s done in those situations for the entire season, but then I realized I could </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">make shit up</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> and it wouldn’t make a difference to AJ.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Second of all, for this to really be effective (rolling my eyes here, because honestly, what am I trying to prove?) I should look at the same stats for another Athletic, preferably a fan favorite. Ryan Sweeney? Hideki Matsui? Matsui might be fun, because he had a stretch there under Geren where he didn’t play very often and when he </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">did</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> play, my eyes tell me he was bad. In fact, on June 4th after Willingham struck out looking with one on and no outs losing 3-5, Matsui didn’t strike out. No, he grounded into a double play, ending the inning. Which at bat was more costly? The Willingham one, or the Matsui one? Well clearly the Matsui one, since he made </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">two</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "> outs and Willingham only made one. Perhaps we should be looking instead at which of the Athletics ground into more double plays close and late? Or have the most “unproductive” at bats. See Willingham’s 9th inning F9 on June 14th, moving Conor Jackson from second to third. Jackson scores on a single in the very next at bat, but the A’s still lose.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Over a thousand words, plus footnotes, to say that 20 at bats is not a large enough sample size from which anyone can extrapolate anything meaningful about Josh Willingham’s close-and-late performance.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Of course, </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">you knew that</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Thus ends my best imitation of a collegiate psychological study, where no conclusive evidence is found to support the hypothesis. As they tell us, inconclusive results can be just as important as conclusive ones, they’re just not as flashy.</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Oh, and AJ made a post to say he quit the group because he was tired of arguing with me because I can't seem to shut my mouth. Perhaps it escaped his notice that I typed everything? I could be a mute, for all he knows.</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Alas, I should stop taking people so literally.</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">_______________</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; "><div style="background-color: transparent; margin-top: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0px; "><span id="internal-source-marker_0.5182258989661932" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">*To which I say, no shit! When failing 7 times out of 10 is considered good, even the best are making outs “in general” in the 7th inning or later. But that, I have learned, is taking things too “literally.” But damn, even Skye is not psychic!</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">**Previous definition of “late” by AJ is 7th inning or later, and also, false! </span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Innings 1-3: 18K </span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Innings 4-6: 30K </span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">Innings 7-9: 27K</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">*** AJ said at-bats, but I’m pretty sure he meant plate appearances.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">**** I HATE “flied out” as the past tense of fly out. No.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; "></span><br /><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; ">***** Say this like Charles Barkley would say it.</span></div></div>Skyehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16544910905468790316noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-11995284425387904752011-04-28T09:20:00.000-07:002011-04-28T09:48:02.514-07:00Fun Fact<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://d.yimg.com/a/p/sp/ap/69/fullj.5abbad135a86bdf51ed0c4f9c145590f/ap-f66d385a7a9f4920a044297c8d17dcbc.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 422px; height: 512px;" src="http://d.yimg.com/a/p/sp/ap/69/fullj.5abbad135a86bdf51ed0c4f9c145590f/ap-f66d385a7a9f4920a044297c8d17dcbc.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Vladimir Guerrero has had 91 at bats this season (22 games) and hasn't drawn a single walk. History tells us he should get one pretty soon, though. While Vladdy Daddy is widely considered as a notorious free-swinger, he has managed a good OBP over his career (.382) and about 45 walks per season. However, in 2010 he received the lowest number of free passes in his career with 35 (in seasons where he played at least 100 games). <br /><br />It's almost certain that Guerrero will draw a walk within the next week or so. Nevertheless, I'll be keeping an eye out to see if he can break Craig Robinson's illustrious record of 146 at bats without a walk. <br /><br />55 more AB's!Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-55882964902266233062011-03-10T16:46:00.000-08:002011-06-16T13:24:18.746-07:00A Creepy Kind of Love<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:donotshowinsertionsanddeletions/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> 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mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="color:black;">Last week I bought the The Hardball Times 2011 Baseball Annual. I wasn’t planning to buy it when I got to the bookstore, but I was frustrated with my inability to find </span><i><span style=";font-family:";">any</span></i><span style=";font-family:";"> other book I wanted to purchase. I scanned through the table of contents to ensure that I would be interested in at least a handful of articles, and the section on the future of fielding sold me.<br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">Today, I flipped open to a random page in the back and about had a heart attack when I saw “The Curious Case of Barry Zito” by Max Marchi. If I were to show you the extent of my fascination with Zito’s career from 2006 (when I started watching baseball and the A’s, telling myself from day one that I would never be a Zito fan and then failing miserably) until now, you might suggest that I look into hiring a therapist. Or perhaps not, since you’re reading this blog. People seem to tolerate the eccentricities of others when they themselves are interested in the ephemera.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">Starting into my life as a baseball fan, Zito captivated me with his curveball. I’m sure that others of you, whether you want to admit to it or not, have admired that old 12-6 of his. I used to say, “When he’s got that curve looping and his fastball locating, he’s one of the best in baseball.” I may have been exaggerating a little, but come <i>on</i>. You haven’t experienced baseball until you’ve watched some accomplished slugger watch that curve fall in for a low strike, caught looking, and that baffled expression settled across his face as he walks to the dugout.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">So I eagerly dove into this article over my lunch break, stopping to explain to co-workers why I was so excited for this piece. “I’ve been keeping track of his fastball velocity since 2008, I’ve analyzed his starts the best I know how, read everything anyone’s written about him, and listened to everything he’s ever said to the media. Here’s someone who’s taken the time to look deeper into the numbers than I have the ability to do, and I want to see if we’ve come to the same conclusions.”</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">Yeah, I got some strange looks.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">I, like everyone else in baseball, was of the general opinion that the 7-year, $126M contract the Giants offered Zito was absolutely <i>ridiculous</i>.* Despite being an irrational fan of his, I couldn’t see anything he offered the Giants, even off the field, to be worth that much. I checked up on his numbers after the deal was announced and was flabbergasted to see that he’d somehow managed to notch up 16 wins. Surely the Giants weren’t looking solely at that?</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">Marchi notes that if we look at statistics which actually mean something, Zito’s 2006 year was actually the worst of his career. Stupid San Francisco, right? His 2007 and 2008 seasons were pretty bad, but not as bad as ESPN made them out to be -- which is where I jump in to say <i>I told you so</i> -- and the shocking thing was that in 2009, Zito got better. And not just better, but arguably <i>good</i>. </span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">What Marchi is really after, however, is figuring out why this happened. Going in, I had my guesses. One doesn’t read, hear, and see everything Barry’s done in the baseball world since 2006 and not have a pretty decent grasp of what’s going on with his numbers. His velocity <i>increased</i>, despite pitchers’ tendencies to throw softer as they age and Zito’s being on the wrong side of 30. Marchi doesn’t make a guess as to why the velocity increased from 2008 to 2009, and only tosses out “one wonders whether Zito had some minor physical problems during that period” as something to consider. I’ve had particular interest in fastball velocity** <a name="_ednref2"></a>so I’ll focus my comments on velocity, not the difference in movement of Zito’s pitches from 2008-2010.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">So here’s where my scary memory comes in. There are three things I’d like to mention, gathered from various places around the web, but all mentioned at one time or another during <i>The Unicorn Hour</i>, a radio show Zito periodically does with Mychael Urban.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">1. Regarding Marchi’s throwaway comment about a possible injury, <a href="http://articles.sfgate.com/2008-02-29/sports/17140785_1_burriss-barry-zito-games-today"><span style="color:blue;">Zito had a wrist injury</span></a> in late 2007. I remember being shocked that he <a href="http://www.sendspace.com/file/innuyw">mentioned it with Urban</a> [at 10:30], not having read anything about a wrist injury in specific or <i>any</i> injury <i>ever.***</i> That immediately explained away a lot of the confusion I’d had about just why he was <i>so</i> bad in 2007. Then I had two thoughts that made me think a little harder. The first was me wondering why he hadn’t admitted earlier that he was injured, in a get-off-my-back-I’m-hurt-that-explains-my-suckitude kind of way. The second thought was that of <i>course</i> he didn’t talk about the injury, because then it would seem like he was making excuses. So there’s that.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">2. Zito spent the 2008-2009 off-season training with none other than Brian Wilson. They cite<a href="http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090122&content_id=3765750&vkey=news_sf&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf"><span style="color:blue;"> long toss sessions over canyons</span></a> as one way they kept in shape for baseball. It’s a well-documented fact that typically, Zito doesn’t do a lot of off-season workouts. He’s been quoted multiple times as saying, “You can’t pull fat.” (<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?entry_id=79557"><span style="color:blue;">Maybe Rich Harden should take that advice</span></a>?) I have to imagine that one off-season of actually working out could be at least partially responsible for an increase in velocity. </span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">3. The New Windup premiered in Spring Training of 2007 was ditched that same day. Marchi seems to make the claim that that particular new delivery was the same one he used throughout 2007 and 2008. Zito <a href="http://www.sendspace.com/file/tq3ao0"><span style="color:blue;">says</span></a> [at 2:14] that his 2008 windup was the same one he’s always done and that everyone knows. Now, Urban <i>does</i> quote Rick Peterson as saying Zito’s a tinkerer, but it’s unclear if Marchi is aware that the infamous failed delivery change died a quick death a few moments after it was debuted. (For what it’s worth, Zito has always seemed bitter about this whole incident.) Zito did, however, remove the over-the-head hand movement that he used with the A’s, but still kept the high leg kick. Marchi presents convincing evidence that Zito’s release point has dropped and I won’t argue with that.</span><span style=";font-family:";"><br /><br /></span><span style="color:black;">I can’t express in words how excited I was to see a whole 7 page article dedicated to Barry Zito’s turnaround. As far as the numbers go, I was not surprised by anything presented. I’ve been keeping track of Zito’s fastball and curveball velocities from 2008 literally pitch by pitch, so seeing the velocity jump from 2008 to 2009 was not at all surprising to me. It seemed a bit incomplete, however, without the references to Zito’s minor wrist injury in 2007, his 2008-2009 off-season workouts, and the 2007 Delivery Debacle. But that’s all fixed now!</span><span style=";font-family:";"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="color:black;">Next up: A complete analysis of Barry Zito’s hitting and how it’s improved from 2007-2011.</span><span style=";font-family:";"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="color:black;">(Totally kidding.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="color:black;">Or am I?***<a name="_ednref3"></a>*)</span><span style=";font-family:";"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> </span></p> <div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";"> <hr align="left" size="1" width="33%"> </span></div> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><a name="_edn1"></a><span style=";font-family:";">*<span style="color:black;">Listing his reasons for choosing the Giants, Zito claims in <a href="http://www.sendspace.com/file/16cklu"><span style="color:blue;">Part One</span></a> of The State of the Union that there was more money on the table with another team. I choose to believe him because I’m a sucker, but just about everyone else I’ve talked to about this has called bullshit. [You can download from that link, FWD to 10:36] Additionally, I’d like to comment here that Zito was dead-on about the Giants being a championship team in a few seasons.</span></span><span style=";font-family:";"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><a name="_edn2"></a><span style=";font-family:";">**In particular, Zito’s velocity in relation to how well he pitches, and Rich Harden’s velocity in relation to how healthy he is.<a name="_edn3"></a></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=""><span style=";font-family:";">*** Clearly I missed the Spring Training article I cited above, which I hadn't read until today. I've spent about three hours listening to various Zito/Urban interviews trying to find that quote in particular and only found it after I'd given up. The audio for the August 24, 2008 interview, taped live, was running in the background of my clackity-clacking keyboard tapping elsewhere about Rich Harden's Italian sportscar body. Yeah, what? Exactly.<br /></span></span></p> <span style=""></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";">****You totally thought I’d forgotten to close my parenthetical, didn’t you?</span></p> <div style="" id="edn3"> </div>Skyehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16544910905468790316noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-1848939589663251602011-01-31T14:19:00.001-08:002011-03-29T13:42:27.854-07:00Let's Make Lemonade!You gotta love Angels' fans. They always have a way of looking at the bright side of things, even if what they're looking at is a pitch black, bottomless abyss filled with falling DMV clerks and Pennywise the Clown. Yes, I'm talking about the recent trade of Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for the worst contract in baseball (aka Vernon Wells) during the worst part of said worst contract. <a href="http://lylemspencer.mlblogs.com/archives/2011/01/seriously_whats_not_to_like.html">This</a> is the site. The author of the article is Lyle Spencer and it's an official MLB blog for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim entitled "Rally Monkeys." Disney and monkeys. Doesn't get any cuter than that right? <br /><br />Here's the title of the article: <br /><br /><strong><em><blockquote>Seriously, what's not to like?</blockquote></em></strong><br /><br />Oh yeah. Let's do this. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Predictably, the Angels' acquisition of Vernon Wells at the expense of Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has the critics howling. They do that largely because that's what they're paid to do, and you can't really fault a person for that. It's the carping of fans that is somewhat baffling.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />First of all, critics only say bad things about things that they think are bad. I have not heard a single person say that the Blue Jays made a bad move in getting rid of roughly $81 million and a 32 year old, .329 career OBP-hitting outfielder. Second of all, fans <em>ARE</em> the toughest critics, so why is this so baffling to you?<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The Angels just landed a three-time All-Star at 32,</strong> </em></blockquote><br /><br />Cool. Made the All Star team once in the last four years, but whatever. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>with four years on his contract, for two players who might not have had starting jobs but will get shots to play every day in their new environment. You have to be reaching hard not to like that.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Here's how I look at it. First there's Juan Rivera. Okay, he was not very good last season (injuries notwithstanding), but let's compare a couple players--just for fun. <br /><br />Rivera Career Statline: .280/.328/.461<br />Player X Career Statline: .280/.329/.476<br /><br />Rivera Career OPS+: 106<br />Player X Career OPS+: 108<br /><br />Rivera 2006-2010 Statline: .278/.327/.466 <br />Player X 2006-2010 Statline: .275/.329/.469 <br /><br />Rivera 2011 Salary: $5.25 Mil<br />Player X 2011 Salary: $23 Mil<br /><br />You will never guess who player X is so don't even try. It's Vernon Wells. I know. Crazy shit!<br /><br />Now let's take a look at Mike Napoli.<br /><br />Last three seasons: 2008-2010 (Ranks Among Catchers Min. 1000 PA)<br />.341 OBP (4th in AL)<br />.502 SLG (T-1st in ML)<br />.361 WOBA (3rd in AL--.001 behind Posada)<br />.244 ISO (1st in ML)<br />8.2 WAR (3rd in AL)<br />66 HR (1st in ML)<br /><br />In case you're curious, Wells has the same number of homeruns as Napoli over the last three years--with about 580 more plate appearances. Napoli also beats him in OBP, SLG, WOBA, ISO, and WAR. And Wells is going to make about $18 mil more than Napoli this year. <br /><br />Sidenote: The fact that Jeff Mathis (Angels other catcher that platooned with Napoli) has gotten 818 PA's over the last three seasons is probably the single greatest piece of evidence that Mike Scoscia is not nearly as smart as people think he is. Mathis has a .200/.264/.303 statline since 2008. The Angels' justification for playing him over Napoli? His awesome defense. <br /><br />2008-2010<br />Mathis UZR: -2.0<br />Napoli UZR: -5.2<br /><br />That's pretty damn close. They both aren't very good defensively. Not terrible, but not great either. How about their offense?<br /><br />2008-2010<br />Mathis Offensive Value: -48.6<br />Napoli Offensive Value: +36.8<br /><br />Okay. That was off topic. This isn't about Scoscia's terrible, overthinking catching decisions... Back to the original topic.<br /><br />This trade is shitty. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The big talking point is Wells' huge contract, which wouldn't have been an issue back in the day when it was the game that mattered, not economics.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Economics have always mattered. The more money you have to spend on good players, the more money you have to spend on <em>GOOD</em> players. This logic has always been put into play with every MLB team, save maybe the Yankees and their unlimited supply of payroll.<br /><br />The game does matter. Money is part of the game. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The statistical focus has been on a decline in Wells' metrics defensively, his struggles against left-handed pitching in 2010, his home/road splits showing a significant preference for Toronto cooking, and his career-long struggles at Angel Stadium.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Sounds like some pretty legitimate statistical concerns. This game's played on a field, though, not on a stats sheet. People seem to always forget that! <br /><br />The author, Lyle Spencer, then goes on to list all these excuses why Wells has played poorly, basically a lot of excuses/assumptions about how the Toronto turf fucked up his knees (which explains why he just had his best season in the last four years, right?). Anyways, back to the good stuff. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Now, on to Wells' statistical oddities in 2010.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />You sure about this? Citing statistics does not seem like a good way to support your particular side of the argument. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>He flourished at home, with a stat line (batting average, on-base, slugging) of .321/.363/.628 compared to .207/.301/.407 on the road. It happens to every player over the course of a career. His career numbers are closer: .286/.339/.505 at home; .274/.321/.446 on the road. He has hit 124 homers in Canada, 99 in the U.S. If he performs better in front of his family, that's not necessarily such a terrible thing.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />I was right. <br /><br />You reiterated the fact that Wells is coming from the 8th ranked hitter's park in 2010 to the 27th ranked hitter's park in 2010. The general discrepancy between home/away splits according to Baseball-Reference is roughly 40 points in OPS, favoring the home side. Over the course of his career, Wells is 77 points better at home than on the road. That's pretty significant. <br /><br />What we really should be looking at, however, are his career numbers at Angels Stadium, which I'm sure are most certainly better. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>And, yes, he has not hit to his customary level in Anaheim, where his slash line for his career is .226/.267/.340. But he would say that has more to do with the likes of John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields and friends than the ballpark, which he happens to love.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Lyle, I'd like to introduce you to a friend of mine. His name is Logic. Lyle, Logic, Logic, Lyle (shakes hands with irony). <br /><br />Here's a simple piece of information, kids. It shouldn't be too hard to follow: THE ANGELS HAVE THE SAME PITCHERS AT HOME THAT THEY DO ON THE ROAD. Get it? Good job. You are smarter than Lyle Spencer. Citing the pitchers as a reason why Wells hit poorly at Angels Stadium doesn't make sense unless he also hit poorly against those same pitchers at home. Let's take a look: <br /><br />Career at Angel Statdium vs. Angels<br />.226/.267/.340--.607 OPS<br />Career at Home (Rogers Centre) vs. Angels<br />.258/.312/.474--.786 OPS<br /><br />Nice try, Lyle. That's a 179 point difference in OPS. Among road parks in which Wells has played at least 17 games, Angels stadium is the home of his worst OBP (Jacobs Field possesses his only lower OPS). I applaud your attempt at a simple-minded, poorly thought-out, deceitful justification though. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Here are the numbers that should be the focus with respect to Wells' 2010 All-Star season if you are an anxiety-ridden Angels fan:</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Oh hell yeah! More stats. This has worked out well for you so far. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>.515, ninth in slugging in the AL;</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />.331, 40th in On-Base Percentage in the AL.<br /><br />Also, his SLG was 58 points lower over the last 100 games. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>31 homers,</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />One of those went to right field. Kinda nitpicky, I know, but being a dead pull hitter never bodes well, which is probably part of the reason he has a .329 career OBP. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>44 doubles, 304 total bases, seventh in the AL in each category; 460 feet, fifth longest homer in the AL;</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />WHOA WHOA WHOA! WHAT??? Did you just say this fool hit a ball 460 feet?!?!?! Holy shit! I am in utter disbelief right now. That is some legendary, Ruthian-like power right there. Seriously, this is unbelievable. I literally do not believe this.................<br /><br />so crazy....<br /><br /><br />460...wow...<br /><br /><br />(looks up info so friends can share in his amazement)<br /><br /><br />so amazing...<br /><br /><br />wait a second...<br /><br /><br />Oh. That's why I can't believe it. Because it's not true. Mother f*cker made it up. <br /><br />Wells' farthest home run in 2010 was <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_true_distance.php">453 feet</a>, 42nd longest in baseball and 18th in the AL. I feel cheated. This trade is shitty. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>1.000, his fielding percentage as one of two regular outfielders in the Majors (151 games played) to commit not a single error, Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez being the other.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />-6.4, his 2010 UZR, good for 56th among 74 eligible Major League outfielders (28th out of 35 AL OF's). <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>One more Wells fun stat line from 2010: 6-for-10, four homers, seven RBIs in three games. That's what he did at Rangers Ballpark, back home in Arlington.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Yes. This was the very first series of the season. He hit the shit out of the ball that month. Not that this is super relevant or anything, but if you take away the first and last months of the season, here's what Wells' numbers look like: <br /><br />May/June/July/August<br /><br />104 Games<br />.251/.300/.449 <br />15 HR<br /><br />To be fair, his first and last months were very, <em>VERY</em> good. It's just kinda weird that more than 50% of his homeruns came from 2 out of the 6 months of the season. I don't really know what to make of this other than the fact that he was embarrassingly horrible for about 65% of the season. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The man is a weapon, a pro's pro. By all accounts, he's a calm, generous individual who distinguishes his profession on and off the field. </strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Good character off the field is very important. Napoli and Rivera were child molesters. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>My advice to fans who have endured a fitful, angry winter is to calm down and get ready to enjoy the show. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but it could be something to behold. It's a lot healthier to take that attitude than to drive up your blood pressure needlessly.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Glass is half full. Love it. Too bad that half of the glass is filled with $81 million of mediocrity. <br /><br />Btw, Napoli was just traded from Toronto to Texas. So Halo Heaven gets to experience hell twenty times a year now. Oh snaps!Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-54907288032375176452011-01-12T15:10:00.000-08:002011-01-31T14:21:53.862-08:00The All Kick-Ass Century TeamWho says you can't make up an All Century Team eleven years into the century? Answer: Everybody. So if you fall into the category of everybody you can just think of it as the all 2000-2010 team. That's catchier anyways. Here we go!<br /><br /><strong>1st Team</strong><br /><br /><em>C- Jorge Posada<br />1B- Albert Pujols<br />2B- Chase Utley<br />3B- Alex Rodriguez<br />SS- Derek Jeter<br />LF- Barry Bonds<br />CF- Andruw Jones<br />RF- Ichiro Suzuki<br /><br />SP- Roy Halladay<br />SP- Randy Johnson<br />SP- C.C. Sabathia<br />SP- Johan Santana<br />SP- Roy Oswalt<br />RP- Mariano Rivera<br />RP- Billy Wagner<br />RP- Joe Nathan</em><br /><br /><strong>2nd Team</strong><br /><br /><em>C- Joe Mauer<br />1B- Lance Berkman*<br />2B- Jeff Kent<br />3B- Chipper Jones<br />SS- Miguel Tejada<br />LF- Manny Ramirez<br />CF- Carlos Beltran<br />RF- Vladimir Guerrero<br /><br />SP- Curt Schilling <br />SP- Andy Pettitte<br />SP- Javier Vazquez**<br />SP- Mike Mussina<br />SP- Tim Hudson<br />RP- Jonathan Papelbon<br />RP- Francisco Rodriguez<br />RP- Francisco Cordero</em><br /><br />*Berkman split about half his time between the outfield and first base. Most of his defensive value came from first base, so I chose to put him there. <br />**Before you crucify me, you should know that if I strictly went by Fangraphs' WAR, Vazquez would actually be on the first team. Yeah, he's THAT good. However, I gave Santana the nod over him because Vazquez's only real advantage over him was innings pitched. Santana has easily been the more dominant pitcher. <br /><br />So there you have it. The best players of the century. I expect both these teams to hold up all the way until year 2100, as there will most certainly not be a better shortstop than Miguel Tejada or a better reliever than Francisco Cordero over the next 89 years. <br /><br />Keep this post bookmarked. Your great, great grandchildren will be impressed by my prophecy.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-57640356328757841542010-10-07T15:22:00.000-07:002010-10-11T17:11:24.765-07:00REPRESENT!One of the commentators on TBS right now during the Yankees/Twins game, talking about Andy Pettitte:<br /><br /><strong><em><blockquote>Sometimes you can get guys out on just reputation alone.</blockquote></em></strong><br /><br />Fact: three of Pettitte's eleven wins this year came without him ever throwing a single pitch. The opposing teams (Seattle, Cleveland, and Baltimore) saw his name on the scorecard, said "fuck that" and waited to take their chances against Burnett and Vazquez (who, coincidentally, both lost eight of their own starts based solely on reputation). <br /><br />I need the Twins to win at least one game in this series if I'm gonna have any chance at winning the $10,000 "Bracket Challenge" on MLB.com. Hopefully the Yanks know about Mauer's rep and just give him second base every time he steps up to the plate.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-23676517481437801522010-09-29T16:59:00.001-07:002010-10-05T11:31:53.814-07:00The Not-So-Social Morgan NetworkSchool just started up for me again, which means boring professors galore and plenty of free time to look for pieces of sports literature that frustratingly tickle my funny bone in <em>just</em> the right spot. What better way to come back from a long hiatus than to take a look at 'ol Joe's "JoeChat." <br /><br />IT'S T-SHIRT TIIIIIIIIIIIIIME! <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Jay (South Korea: Love ur work Joe! Last night's gem against Washington locked up Halladay for Cy, do you agree?<br /><br />Joe Morgan (11:09 AM: Well, the fact that Jimenez has not been able to win, I would say yes. Jimenez has pitched well, but he hasn't been able to win and Halladay has won. I think with the fact that the Phillies have won that Halladay will win it.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Number of forms of "win" used in paragraph: 5<br />Number of forms of "win" necessary in a Cy Young argument: 0<br />Number of min left in this boring International Business class: 97<br />Number of billion dollars Mark Zuckerberg has made from Facebook: 22<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>M@ (Hattiesburg, MS): As wide open as the AL CY Young race is, I haven't heard Jon Lester mentioned once, even though his numbers are better than C.C.'s. across the board, an equal to Felix. For instance, opponents hit .243 off CC, .213 against Felix and .214 against Lester. Did his flirtation with a no-hitter against the Yankees Saturday put him on the map, finally? Who would you give the CY to?<br /><br />Joe Morgan (11:12 AM): I think he's always been in the race in my mind. I like what Felix Hernandez has done, but he has won only 12 games.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />Irrelevant. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>People say that he doesn't get support from his teamamtes,</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Hernandez has 12 losses. In those 12 losses, the Mariners have scored a grand total of 14 runs. <em><strong>14</strong></em>. As in two more runs than the number of games lost. As in 1.2 runs scored per game. For 12 starts, saying he didn't get support from his teammates was almost literally true. He was literally 1.2 runs of support away from getting literally no support from his teammates. Literally. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>but guess what, every award is a team award.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />No it's not. As a matter of fact, I can't think of any actual <em>"team"</em> awards besides the World Series Title. Other than the super obvious ones like Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves, and MVP's, I mean. <br /><br />Anyways, among A.L. pitchers with at least 160 innings pitched, Sabathia ranks 8th in run support with 7.31 runs per game. Hernandez is dead last (42nd) with 3.75 runs per game.<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>You can't win the MVP without your teammates.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />Yes you can. The M.V.P. award, according to trustworthy Wikipedia, stands for "Most Valuable Player", not "Most Valuable Team-Player As Deemed By Joe Morgan And His Painstakingly Outdated Chass-Like Ways Of Looking At Things" (or M.V.T.P.A.D.B.J.M.A.H.P.O.C.L.W.O.L.A.T.). <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Do we look at an MVP candidate and say his team didn't give him a chance to drive in runs?</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />Who's "we"? Because my answer to your patronizing, sarcastic, condescending, leading, naive, ignorant, arrogant-poised question is... HELL YES!<br /><br />Also, the Seattle Marines scored less runs than any other team in baseball this year. The Yankees scored the most. You will ignore this information. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The fact is that Felix has won 12 games and CC has won 20.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />True fact (well, technically King Felix has 13 wins now, but at the time of the JoeChat this was a true fact). You know what else is a true fact? Felix beat C.C. in ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR, K's, IP, CG, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, and WHIP. True fact. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>It is harder to win in a championship environment in New York than in Felix's situation.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />Yeah, it's easier to win when your team scores 3.75 runs for you per game and more difficult to win when your team scores 7.31 runs per game. Poor Sabathia man... King Felix has it easy, bro! He's got a castle and a queen and servants and shit!<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Just look at AJ Burnett this year.</strong></em></blockquote> <br /><br />Awesome example. For heaven's sake just last year this guy threw 207 innings, struck out 195 batters, and posted a 3.1 WAR! What happened? All of the sudden he comes to New York and can't pitch anymore?! Are you kidding me??? Sack up and grow a pair Burnett, this is the Damn Yankees!!! <br /><br /><br /><br />(**browses at Burnett's Baseball-Reference page**)<br /><br /><br /><br />....Nevermind all that. Apparently Burnett pitched for the Yankees last year too. My bad. <br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>Felix has done a good job this year, but he's not in the same difficulty level of pitching this year as CC.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><br />Major League Baseball has been around since 1869. During that span the world has witnessed things such as the invention of the automobile, airplane, radio, television, air conditioning, computer, telephone, Coca-Cola, Beatles, Jersey Shore, and--above all-- Facebook. The world has developed drastically in almost every way over the past 141 years. However, what has not developed is the ability of sportswriters (specifically Joseph Morgs) to ignore the ever-so-attractive "wins" category when evaluating pitchers. I'm fairly certain that even Snooki could understand the basic concept if it was written at a 3rd grade level on a spray tan can label. <br /><br />I'm tired. Class is over. Time to devote the next couple hours to coming up with an idea that will allow me to--much like Mark Zuckerberg did after inventing Facebook--drop out of school and become a billionaire.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-61946528134474213132010-07-21T11:28:00.000-07:002010-07-21T11:30:12.888-07:00!!!!<span class="status-body"> <strong></strong><span class="actions"></span> <span class="entry-content"><blockquote>Attention, Fire Joe Morgan fans: happy to announce that FJM will ride again, this September 22, on Deadspin. <a href="http://twitter.com/search?q=%23FJM" title="#FJM" class="tweet-url hashtag" rel="nofollow">#FJM</a></blockquote><a href="http://twitter.com/search?q=%23FJM" title="#FJM" class="tweet-url hashtag" rel="nofollow"></a><br /><br /></span></span><span class="status-body"><span class="entry-content"></span></span><blockquote><span class="status-body"><span class="entry-content">If you come across some hilariously bad sportswriting, (I know: what are the chances?), email us through the site. <a href="http://twitter.com/search?q=%23FJM" title="#FJM" class="tweet-url hashtag" rel="nofollow">#FJM</a></span></span></blockquote><a href="http://twitter.com/KenTremendous">Via Twitter</a>Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-29068263309949455892010-07-08T19:07:00.000-07:002010-07-08T19:08:28.334-07:00Obscure Basketball NewsApparently, something happened tonight. Too bad no one publicized it.Goosehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09119446271328649796noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-26439658299942842872010-05-03T15:31:00.000-07:002010-05-03T15:35:36.081-07:00ApocalypseESPN SportsCenter just used WAR in displaying how valuable Joe Mauer has been to the Twins over the past three seasons... no joke. <br /><br />...What are we gonna write about now?Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-15026979744458531502010-04-30T11:21:00.000-07:002010-04-30T16:59:13.828-07:00WAR All-Stars - First Month<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2006/08/14/eCw8XKXX.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 275px; height: 235px;" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2006/08/14/eCw8XKXX.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />So in the pre-season, <a href="http://and-that-happened.blogspot.com/2010/03/all-chone-teams.html">I did a little post creating an objective All-Star team for each league using just WAR from CHONE</a>. To keep myself busy, I figured at the end of each month, I could do an update using FanGraphs' WAR so far through the season. This team will be assembled using the roster rules for the actual All-Star game (including the recent update to 34). For NL DH, I'll just plug in the best wRAA who isn't starting.<br /><br />Of course, at this point, this should be mostly hilarious thanks to a pretty small sample size. That, of course, makes it even more fun. One small difference from FanGraphs' WAR: I believe in looking at as many reasonable data points of defense as possible, so for the defensive component, I'll be taking the difference between DRS and UZR. This will probably be a little wonky because UZR, I believe, doesn't update as frequently as DRS, and one week of data makes a lot of difference at this point. Oh well, I don't particularly care. I'm also going to add DRS to pitchers.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">American League</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Starters</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">SP - Francisco Liriano, MIN (1.1)<br />C - Joe Mauer, MIN (1.0)<br />1B - Justin Morneau, MIN (1.5)<br />2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (1.7)<br />3B - Evan Longoria, TB (1.3)<br />SS - Alex Gonzalez, TOR (1.1)<br />OF - Nelson Cruz, TEX (1.6)<br />OF - Carl Crawford, TB (1.4)<br />OF - Vernon Wells, TOR (1.4)<br />DH - Jose Guillen, KC (0.6)<br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bench</span></span><br />C - Matt Wieters, BAL (0.5)<br />1B - Paul Konerko, CHW (1.0)<br />1B - Daric Barton, OAK (1.o)<br />1B - Kendry Morales, LAA (0.9)<br />1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET (0.9)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">2B - Ben Zobrist, TB (0.9)<br />3B - Alberto Callaspo, KC (0.8)<br />SS - Elvis Andrus, TEX (0.8)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">OF - Franklin Gutierrez, SEA (1.4)<br />OF - Austin Jackson, DET (1.1)<br />OF - Magglio Ordonez, DET (1.1)<br />OF - Shin-Soo Choo, CLE (1.1)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">DH - Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (0.5)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bullpen</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">SP - John Danks, CHW (1.1)<br />SP - Ricky Romero, TOR (1.0)<br />SP - CC Sabathia, NYY (1.0)<br />SP - Carl Pavano, MIN (0.9)<br />SP - Clay Bucholz, BOS (0.8)<br />SP - Matt Garza, TB (0.9)<br />SP - Feliz Hernandez, SEA (0.8)<br />SP - Andy Pettitte, NYY (0.8)<br />RP - Kevin Gregg, TOR (0.8)<br />RP - Joel Zumaya, DET (0.7)<br />RP - Matt Thornton, CHW (0.6)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Nation League</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Starters</span></span><br />SP - Roy Halladay, PHI (1.7)<br />C - Brian McCann, ATL (0.7)<br />1B - Albert Pujols, STL (1.2)<br />2B - Chase Utley, PHI (1.5)<br />3B - Pablo Sandoval, SF (1.0)<br />SS - Stephen Drew, ARI (1.0)<br />OF - Colby Rasmus, STL (1.6)<br />OF - Josh Willingham, WSN (1.2)<br />OF - Michael Bourn, HOU (1.1)<br />DH - Ryan Braun, MIL (1.0)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Bench</span></span><br />C - Bengie Molina, SF (0.5)<br />1b - Adrian Gonzalez, SD (1.0)<br />1B - Joey Votto, CIN (0.9)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">2B - Kelly Johnson, ARI (1.3)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3B - David Wright, NYM (0.9)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3B - Andy LaRoche, PIT (0.9)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3B- Mark Reynolds, ARI (0.9)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">3B - Chase Headley, SD (0.9)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">SS - Rafael Furcal, LAD (1.0)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">OF - Marlon Byrd, CHC (1.0)<br />OF - Ryan Ludwick, STL (0.9)<br />OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT (0.8)<br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bullpen</span></span><br />SP - Tim Lincecum, SF (1.5)<br />SP - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (1.5)<br />SP - Adam Wainwright, STL (1.4)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">SP - Johan Santana, NYM (1.1)<br />SP - Ryan Dempster, CHC (1.1)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">SP - Brad Penny, STL (1.0)<br />SP - Josh Johnson, FLA (0.9)<br />SP - Randy Wells, CHC (0.9)<br />SP - Jonathan Sanchez, SF (0.9)<br />RP - Carlos Marmol, CHC (0.6)<br />RP - Tyler Clippard, WSN (0.6)<br />RP - Sean Marshall, CHC (0.6)<br /></span>Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-85953851525264395502010-04-06T12:42:00.001-07:002010-04-06T13:57:08.721-07:00The MSM Isn't All BadIt's no secret that some of what we write here is trying to fill the void in a post-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">FJM</span> world. We're not as clever as they are, but it still makes the wound of their disappearance a little less painful (at least for us) if we apply our own distaste for the awful sports journalism out there to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">snarky</span> rips of their pieces.<br /><br />That said, it's not like the media is always awful, and sometimes I feel the desire to point out when it's not. This almost came true the other day when I thought of breaking down an article from quite possibly the worst writer of the bunch <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100402">admitting to becoming an amateur <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">sabermetrician</span></a>. I'm not about to admit I like his stuff, but proof of an open mind is none-the-less appealing (as is a step towards getting the casual fan to understand the value of some of the simpler metrics out there).<br /><br />In that same vein, I'd like to post this statement from Rangers TV play-by-play man Josh <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Lewin</span>. I actually like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Lewin</span> as an announcer because he seems to know his stuff better than most, and he just plane makes exciting moments more exciting (I'm part of the Gus Johnson Apologists Club, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">by the way</span>). Still, he has a habit -- which is probably dictated from above -- of going on tangents that often ignore the play on the field and are of little interest to serious baseball fans. He spends quite a bit of time talking about boring, fluffy stories, and repeating things like "Michael Young and Vernon Wells are best friends" every inning. That stuff isn't wrong, and, as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Lewin</span> points out below, probably called for and not directed at the audience I belong to, but it is still annoying at times. In a discussion thread at Lone Star Ball, Rangers fans decided to unleash some of their anger at being no-hit by Shaun <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Marcum</span> for six innings on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Lewin</span> and his tangents and fluff trivia.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Lewin</span> then signed on to Lone Star Ball today and <a href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2010/4/6/1407709/from-josh-lewin-to-yall">posted this response</a>, quoted below. I link to it without further commentary because I think it speaks volumes by itself. It explains, in a way, what we hard core baseball fans probably need to hear about broadcasts, and also shows how honest, human and stand-up some of these media men we criticize can be. It's also just plain cool to see a minor celebrity has the time and impetus to go out of his way to address fans.<br /><br /><p></p><blockquote><p>Hey Gang...</p> <p>Just thought I'd check in and express a couple thoughts to you.</p> <p>As a big fan of this site, one of the simple pleasures after a Ranger game for me is to pop a beverage, turn on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">MLB</span> TV and scroll through to see what true blue (or red) Ranger fans are thinking... it's something my kids do with me on occasion as well (sans the beverage), which is what prompted me to write this post...</p> <p>PLEASE PLEASE understand that the broadcast has to serve a wide cross-section of viewers. For now there are way, way, way more casual baseball fans than die-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">hards</span>, and we have to do our best to throw everyone a little morsel of what it is they want. Believe me, I'm aware that the die-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">hards</span> don't need all the frivolity and BS to keep 'em eyeballed in for three hours... there are probably a good thousand of you who live and die with every pitch, and no doubt, y'all are the most important fans the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/TEX" class="sbn-auto-link">Rangers</a> have. But for the 7,999,000 other people in the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">DFW</span> area, I have to be mindful that they aren't as keyed up or clued in as you guys... we are casting a wide net trying to get as many Texans as possible to start giving a darn and learning the game.</p> <p>Anyway, that's my cross to bear and I understand those of you who hate that dynamic and want to rail against the injustice of it all... the only thing I ask-- gently and nicely -- is to keep in mind that indeed, there are kids reading your posts as well as adults. My kiddos and I both know that public figures (and kids of public figures) need to have thick skin, but still, words like "<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">douchebag</span>" kind of cut to the core. I'm not here to lecture or censor, but I just wanted to put that out there.</p> <p>Meantime, I humbly promise I will do my level-best not to be douche-baggy to the best of my abilities... I take my assignment as Rangers TV Voice very seriously, and want to give an A-plus performance every night. But please know that there will be some times that I will, indeed, cater to the casual fans for a half an inning, and/or say something pretty freaking stupid that makes you want to throw something at your TV. I apologize in advance for those times, but I also promise that when the game's 4-4 in the 9<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">th</span> (as it gloriously was yesterday) you will get a spot-on call of all that's going on. Even casual fans don't need any whoop-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">de</span>-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">doo</span> when it's 4-4 in the 9<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">th</span>!</p> <p><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Ok</span>, I'm out... back to enjoying the posts and the growing fever for Ranger baseball... but I just wanted y'all, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">diehards</span>, to know what's in my heart.</p> <p>Best wishes and Go Rangers--</p> <p>-Josh</p></blockquote>Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-56464190572165092302010-04-05T11:39:00.000-07:002010-04-05T11:57:52.493-07:00Unidentified Scout Should Be UnemployedAccording to an anonymous scout:<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">"Andre Ethier plays right field better than Matt Kemp plays center."</span></span></blockquote><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">-2009-</span><br /><br />Kemp<br />2.5 UZR<br />Ethier<br />-16.2 UZR<br /><br />Among 63 eligible outfielders, Andre Ethier ranked 58th. <br /><br />I love MLB.tv... Why the hell is Padilla starting opening day?Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-72261411264496408262010-04-05T00:34:00.001-07:002010-04-05T03:24:31.290-07:00Jon Heyman Thinks It's Surprising When Teams With Good Players Are Good<a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/04/01/surprise.rays/index.html">Here's the story</a>. Basically Mr. Heyman lists seven teams which "could surprise this season." The top three teams to comprise this list are none other than the bottom-of-the-barrel Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, and Minnesota Twins. Or in other words, a team that includes Evan Longoria (don't take his hat!), Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Jeff Niemann, Matt Garza, and David Price... along with two teams that made the playoffs last year. <br /><br />Heyman's bold, courageous, shot-in-the-dark predictions have inspired me to conduct a list of my own. Here's my "Things That Could Surprise This Season" list:<br /><br />-Albert Pujols wins the MVP. <br />-The number one-rated prospect in all of baseball, Jason Heyward, wins the NL Rookie of the Year Award. <br />-A player that everyone suspected of using steroids gets suspended for using steroids.<br />-David Eckstein fails to make the 40/40 club. <br />-Joe Morgan sets the record for most questions answered via ESPNchat without ever actually answering a question. <br />-The Pirates finish under .500. <br />-Milton Bradley gets angry. <br />-Dusty Baker chokes on a toothpick.<br />-The American League wins the All Star game. <br />-Duke beats Butler.<br />-Torii Hunter wins a gold glove. <br />-Jon Heyman writes bad, pointless articles.<br /><br />Keep an eye out for these. I have a feeling that at least one or two of them may catch the world off guard. <br /><br />Opening Day!Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-73654680242735293172010-04-03T03:43:00.000-07:002010-04-03T03:46:53.372-07:00How to Tell if Your Lineup is a Piece of ShitClue Number One: Mike Jacobs (.313 Career OBP) is your <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/news/story?id=5051175">cleanup hitter</a>.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-48703043246976303832010-03-06T11:20:00.000-08:002010-03-07T01:35:31.580-08:00The All CHONE Teams<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://theghostofmoonlightgraham.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/chone-figgins.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 145px; height: 179px;" src="http://theghostofmoonlightgraham.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/chone-figgins.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />On this boring Saturday, I decided to glance through the <a href="http://www.baseballprojection.com/">CHONE projections</a> and put together an objective set of pre-season All-Star teams. I'll be using the same format used for the real All-Star teams, so YOUR team will have a player! The determining factor is WAR (for NL DH I'll use the second best 1B).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >American League</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:100%;">Starters</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Zack Greinke, KC (6.0)<br />C - Joe Mauer, MIN (7.3)<br />1B - Mark Teixeira, NYY (5.1)<br />2B - Dustin Pedroia, BOS (4.7)<br />3B - Evan Longoria, TB (5.1)<br />SS - Derek Jeters, NYY (3.5)<br />OF - Grady Sizemore, CLE (5.2)<br />OF - Curtis Granderson, NYY (4.9)<br />OF - B.J. Upton, TB (4.4)<br />DH - David Ortiz, BOS (2.3)<br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bench</span></span><br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - CC Sabathia, NYY (5.6)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Felix Hernandez, SEA (5.0)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Justin Verlander, DET (4.9)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Javier Vazquez, NYY (4.7)<br />P - Joe Nathan, MIN (1.5)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Jon Lester, BOS (4.5)</span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Cliff Lee, SEA (4.4)<br />P - Mark Buehrle, CHW (3.8)<br />P - Jered Weaver, LAA (3.5)<br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">P - Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (1.4)<br />P - Joakim Soria, KC (1.4)<br />C - Matt Wieters, BAL (3.9)<br />C - Kurt Suzuki, OAK (3.1)<br />1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET (4.5)<br />1B - Victor Martinez, BOS (4.5)<br />2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX (4.3)<br />2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (4.2)<br />3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY (5.1)<br />SS - Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE (3.2)<br />OF - Nick Markakis, BAL (4.3)<br />OF - Adam Jones, BAL (3.9)<br />OF - Carl Crawford, TB (3.8)<br />DH - Adam Lind, TOR (2.1)<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">National League<br /><span style="font-size:100%;">Starters</span><br /></span></span>P - Roy Halladay, PHI (5.9)<br />C - Brian McCann, ATL (4.7)<br />1B - Albert Pujols, STL (7.2)<br />2B - Chase Utley, PHI (6.1)<br />3B - David Wright, NYM (5.2)<br />SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA (7.3)<br />OF - Carlos Beltran, NYM (4.9)<br />OF - Matt Holliday, STL (4.9)<br />OF - Ryan Braun, MIL (4.6)<br />DH - Prince Fielder, MIL (5.2)<br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bench</span></span><br />P - Tim Lincecum, SF (5.8)<br />P - Dan Haren, ARI (4.7)<br />P - Matt Cain, SF (3.9)<br />P - Cole Hamels, PHI (3.8)<br />P - Ubaldo Jiminez, COL (3.8)<br />P - Roy Oswalt, HOU (3.4)<br />P - Paul Malholm, PIT (3.2)<br />P - Jonathan Broxton, LAD (1.4)<br />P - Heath Bell, SD (1.2)<br />P - Carlos Marmol, CHC (1.0)<br />C - Russel Martin, LAD (3.9)<br />1B - Ryan Howard, PHI (4.4)<br />1B - Adrian Gonzalez, SD (4.2)<br />1B - Joey Votto, CIN (3.6)<br />2B - Dan Uggla, FLA (3.1)<br />3B - Ryan Zimmerman, WSN (5.0)<br />3B - Chipper Jones, ATL (3.8)<br />SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL (6.3)<br />SS - Jose Reyes, NYM (5.2)<br />SS - Yunel Escobar, ATL (4.7)<br />OF - Matt Kemp, LAD (4.5)<br />OF - Justin Upton, ARI (3.8)<br />OF - Jason Bay, NYM (3.7)<br /></span><br />Interesting group. I'm surprised by how many sub-4 WAR players make it. And, of course, the real team would have four shortstops and five first basemen.Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-28640631106635484992010-03-05T22:48:00.000-08:002010-03-05T23:20:56.444-08:00Wild(ly wrong) ThingSo I'm watching the MLB Network because I have a horrible addiction to getting hyped for every sport I love about the month before the season starts, and it's less painful than ESPN.<br /><br />But it still sucks.<br /><br />I'm watching the 30 in 30 deal where the panel talks about the Phillies upcoming season. Mitch Williams, brought in as an objective commentator with no ties to the team, decides to launch in to how the pivotal point in their rotation is one Cole Hamels. He explains Hamels's "let down" in 2009 thusly:<br /><blockquote>We thought in 2008 after Cole Hamels went through the post season, MVP of the divisional series, MVP of the World Series. He got caught up in all of this MVP hype. He's a young kid. At that time in your career, you don't want to say no to anyone. You think it's rude to say no. Bottom line is: he didn't get the work done in the winter that he needed to get done because he didn't say no, it caught up to him, and 2009 was a big disappointment.</blockquote><br />John Hart -- who the network insists on showing with a Rangers logo every time he talks to make me cry -- agrees.<br /><br />Well, I'm sure Mitch Williams not only knows Cole Hamels but does this psychoanalysis on his own. So <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P">let's see</a>. Hamels struck out .05 more batters per nine. Pretty much the same thing, and, in fact, a little bit improved. He also walked .1 fewer batters per nine, again improvement, but not meaningful. Oh wait, here we go: HE GAVE UP .01 MORE HOME RUNS PER NINE INNINGS! Cole Hamels, you schmuck! You were so full of yourself you gave up a whole extra home run every 900th inning pitched. That's pathetic, man, stop buying in to your MVP hype.<br /><br />So, atrocious collapse in home runs allowed aside, what else do we have? He actually approved his line drive rate by 1%, again an improvement but not much of one. His ground ball rate also improved by almost 1%. His fly ball rate was exactly the same. So, other than the fact that his home run rate skyrocketed, Cole Hamels was exactly the same pitcher, if not better in 2008 by all this stuff. That seems supported by his FIP being exactly 3.72 both years.<br /><br />My gosh, what could have changed. Oh yeah, his batting average on balls in play. That thing he has <span style="font-size:78%;">almost</span> no damn control over in any way whatsoever. Oh my god. It went from a very lucky .270 in 2008 to a very unlucky .325 in 2009. You see, Cole Hamels? Are you listening to me, douche? This is what future Hall of Famer (both baseball and psychiatry) Mitch Williams was talking about, dumbass. If you believe your MVP hype KARMA WILL GET YOU!<br /><br /><br />Seriously, though, I hate you, Mitch Williams. I hate you for getting paid more than I'll ever make to do less homework than I just did in five minutes because you cost your team the World Series once. Cole Hamels, inning for inning, was almost the exact same pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 (that pitcher is pretty awesome, btw). You, however, are too lazy/uneducated to actually figure out what was different about him, so you make up some nonsense that you know the masses will just trust because you played The Game and no one will challenge you on save an anonymous loser with a blog that no one reads. Get off my TV.Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-34207491937539033352010-02-24T14:07:00.000-08:002010-02-24T15:50:11.047-08:00ATH on ATHToday's little snippet comes from Woody Paige. This is in response to J.A. Adande calling Kobe Bryant the best player in the league at making difficult shots:<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>I find it funny J.A. said he's (Kobe Bryant) the toughest shot shooter in the league. That's like saying any landing is a good landing. All landings on planes I'm on, when it gets on the ground--same way if the shot goes in, that's not a tough shot.</strong></em></blockquote><br />No idea what Woody was trying to say about planes. Whatever. The shot thing is utterly moronic. Just because the shot goes in doesn't mean that it lacked a greater degree of difficulty. I don't care what you say, Lebron dunking on Nate Robinson is easier than Derek Fisher putting up a shot with 0.4 seconds left and Manu Ginobli on his hip. <br /><br />Paige is old.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-16350447706277071062010-02-16T02:08:00.000-08:002011-03-29T13:47:46.853-07:00Hot Piece of Chass<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicr5bSMQ9tcYXFQ-qrnzZpid0UPKxojA9CXLC17BKRRz711xON6UgsgwmtpYboCzzhmunjChwTVc24mH2mf-FdsRgZeOdPHJJqpvLD_brvv_rW7-LeuUZRvnPIX6JlppMgYD9LkxFjm-E/s1600-h/chass.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 140px; height: 140px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicr5bSMQ9tcYXFQ-qrnzZpid0UPKxojA9CXLC17BKRRz711xON6UgsgwmtpYboCzzhmunjChwTVc24mH2mf-FdsRgZeOdPHJJqpvLD_brvv_rW7-LeuUZRvnPIX6JlppMgYD9LkxFjm-E/s320/chass.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5440524110791203746" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />My, oh my, how the time flies. Sorry for the horrific slack job over the last few weeks, people. Discovering the tv show Dexter will do that to you. But much like my favorite prime time serial killer, I'm back to slice up whatever shitty sportswriting that has transpired. What better place to start than with the notorious, multiple-offender Murray Chass? This guy is pissed off that people have the nerve to have an opinion about the stuff he writes on his site published on the world wide web. <a href="http://www.murraychass.com/?p=1447&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MurrayChass+%28Murray+Chass+On+Baseball%29&utm_content=FeedBurner">Let's find out why.</a> <br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;"><blockquote>There is nothing in sports that creates the controversy and the debate provoked by voting for the Hall of Fame. More than a week after the results of the latest voting were announced, I was still getting e-mail about the results. Everyone is an expert, fans and bloggers alike. They all know better than the people who actually vote in the election, and they eagerly tell us so.</blockquote></span></span><br />Kinda comes with the territory, Chassy. Don't consistently post articles on a website (<a href="http://www.murraychass.com/?page_id=23">it's not a blog!</a>) and not expect people to comment on what you're saying. If it bothers you so much perhaps you should be posting these articles in a word document, not the internet. <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">A reader of this site told me in an e-mail that my ballot, which I disclosed before the results were announced, “contains votes for players I do not believe deserve to be in the Hall of Fame and you failed to vote for players who clearly deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.”</span></span></blockquote><br />Sounds like an intelligent guy--not to mention very level-headed. I would have thrown a few more adjectives in there. I mean, the guy did vote for<a href="http://www.murraychass.com/?p=1369"> Jack Morris over Bert Blyleven</a>. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><span style="font-style:italic;"><blockquote>“Clearly deserve” in whose judgment? His, of course. Does that make him right and me wrong? Of course not. Am I right? Yes. Why? Because my opinion counts and his doesn’t. My ballot was one of the 539 counted in the election. He did not have a vote. Therefore, his opinion is worthless as far as the election is concerned.</blockquote></span></span><br />That's right, everyone. Murray Chass's opinion is correct because he has a vote... So, theoretically, if I had a vote and I voted for Jose Vizcaino (he signed my hat when I was little, ought to be worth a decent amount if he's in the Hall of Fame, right?!), none of the 6 billion other people in the world who do not have a vote could be allowed--nor hold the right-- to criticize, question, or belittle my status as a BBWAA member. <br /><br />If President Barack Obama decides tomorrow that he wants to suspend the writ of habeas corpus to all Americans, he is right in doing so because he has been placed in that position and all decisions he makes are absent of error. <br /><br />Makes sense.<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">That’s the real problem self-proclaimed experts have. They want to be the ones voting, but they don’t have that privilege. It’s their own fault. They chose the wrong profession. Accountants, lawyers, doctors, teachers and salesmen don’t get to vote for the Hall of Fame. Baseball writers do.</span></span></blockquote><br />I don't think it's so much that they/we want to be the ones voting, it's just that they/we would like it if those incredibly intelligent, righteous, god-like experts already put in the prestigious position of power took more than <a href="http://www.murraychass.com/?p=1369">three hours before the deadline to think about their decision.</a> Is that really too much to ask? They/we don't think so. <br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;"><blockquote>When I started out in life, I wanted to be a baseball writer, not so that I could vote for the Hall of Fame. I didn’t know anything about voting then, but it is something that came with the territory.</blockquote></span></span><br />Awesome. I hope you know that by writing this article you have made it impossible for yourself to ever bitch about any other profession ever again. All of us "self-proclaimed experts" are gonna be on the lookout for when you slip up. Consider yourself warned, sir. <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">Actually, I don’t believe baseball writers should be voting for the Hall of Fame, though I don’t know of a more qualified group, which is why the Hall maintains its association with the Baseball Writers Association.</span></span></blockquote><br />You didn't trick anybody here, Chassy. You basically just said that you think baseball writers absolutely <i>should</i> be voting for the Hall of Fame because they are superior beings, and hence the most qualified. <br /><br />"I don't believe that Albert Pujols should have won the NL MVP last year, though I don't know a more qualified player, which is undoubtedly why he won." <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">Most of the Hall arguments today seem to be statistics-centered. I get the idea that the stats zealots would draw up charts based on their new-fangled numbers and decide on the basis of the numbers who should be in the Hall of Fame. No thinking necessary.</span></span></blockquote><br />Dare to dream, right? I have a feeling that you'll do your best to see that such dreams never come to fruition though. I'm curious, what are people supposed to be looking at in terms of qualification for induction? Dominance? Intimidation? How greatly they "stood out among the rest"? None of these things can be accurately determined without the use of statistics, whether you're using Chassy-endorsed stats such as Wins, Losses, and ERA, or more valuable and current statistics such as FIP, WAR, and VORP. <br /><br />The point is if nobody ever looked at stats the Hall of Fame would be full of guys like Juan Pierre and Bo Jackson... and Derek Jeter would be considered the best defensive shorstop of all time. <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">Blyleven’s statistics have endeared him to the stats zealots. One of their big numbers is his strikeouts. He had a lot of them, 3,701. Tommy John, who otherwise had similar career statistics to Blyleven’s, struck out 2,245.</span></span></blockquote><br />Not really sure why Tommy John is all of the sudden thrown into the mix. But okay, I'll play along. Bert Blyleven has the 13th highest Career WAR among pitchers all time (Baseball Projection). He's ahead of pitchers such as Christy Mathewson, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, and Steve Carlton. Yes, he had 3,701 career strikeouts (5th all time). He also finished in the top seven in K/9 fourteen times, had 60 career shutouts (9th all time), and put up an awesome 3.19 career FIP. That FIP is better than Greg Maddux, Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn, Dennis Eckersley, Jim Palmer, and a few thousand other current and former MLB pitchers. <br /><br />Tommy John is 43rd all time in WAR (Jack Morris was 139th, just fyi) and had a 3.38 career FIP (Morris had a 3.94 career FIP... maybe your argument should have been for him instead of Morris. Granted, Blyleven is still significantly better, but it'd had been less embarrassing for an esteemed, heavenly sportswriter such as yourself to make an argument for John rather than for a player who--had he not pitched one great world series game in 1991--you would not be endorsing so damn persistently). <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">I think strikeouts get far too much attention and emphasis.</span></span></blockquote> <br />Other than inducing a double-play groundball, there's almost nothing more beneficial for a pitcher and his team. Striking a hitter out reduces the chances of the other team scoring during that at bat by quite a large margin. Let's face it, strikeouts are sexy. <br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">Strikeouts are sexy.</span></span> </blockquote> <br />You're <a href="http://rksbaseballbookshelf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/chassmurrayspt.jpg">sexy</a>.<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-style:italic;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">John, however, was a sinkerball pitcher and got more outs on batted balls and fared just as well as Blyleven. John had a career 288-231 record with a 3.34 earned run average. Blyleven’s record was 287-250 and his e.r.a. 3.31. John retired 57 percent of the batters he faced, Blyleven, with all his strikeouts, 59 percent. Yet in the eyes of the stats zealots, the voters were justified for not electing John but not for rejecting Blyleven.</span></span></blockquote><br />Do they teach math at the University of Pittsburgh? Hold on, let me check... Interesting. Turns out they do. Yet somehow Mr. Murray here managed to calculate something as simple as Opponents On-Base Percentage <span style="font-style:italic;">COMPLETELY WRONG</span>. If John and Blyleven retired 57 and 59 percent of the batters they faced, then their respective OPP OBP totals would be approximately .430 and .410. That is bad. Perhaps Chass should have spent less time sipping a cola beverage by the jukebox in the diner and more time in the classroom!<br /><br />Burn.<br /><br /><blockquote><em><strong>The arguments will go on incessantly, and the conclusions will be I’m right, you’re wrong. Or is it you’re right, I’m wrong?</strong></em></blockquote><br />The latter...... jackass.Rookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15738235463902064292noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-67435332965065746742010-02-09T21:30:00.000-08:002010-02-09T21:39:29.987-08:00Ranking the BasementsI found this neat piece via Baseball Think Factory's Newsstand describing the basements of well-known* saberfriendly bloggers. <a href="http://playdeeper.blogspot.com/2010/02/last-week-chris-jaffe-wrote-column-at.html">Check it out</a> with a sample about the formerly flanneled one: <br /><blockquote>Every piece of furniture in Rob Neyer's well apportioned man cave is woven entirely out of flannel, except the 12-foot tall ice sculpture entitled "Lord James in Repose", which is carved from the frozen tears of pure, unrequited love.</blockquote><br /><br />*The only one I had not heard of, Hjort, does have a pretty nice blog. His newest post about the Braves's outfield situation is a great read: <a href="http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=1902">Outfield Platoon Matrix</a>Goosehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09119446271328649796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-82111603255780904612010-02-08T18:36:00.000-08:002010-02-08T19:56:44.093-08:00A Return to ArmsThat's right. I am back for more and what a better way to restart than to go with one of our old reliables, Bill Plaschke. It's an article outlining how important it is that the Saints win. Since this is coming after the Saints's Super Bowl victory (Congrats to them), I cannot do any playful teasing of him not getting his wish. Even so, it's a Plaschke piece so there's certainly something to say about it. <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/columnists/la-sp-plaschke7-2010feb07,0,3227573.column?track=rss">From the LA Times website</a>:<br /><blockquote>One helmet is an ancient symbol of rebirth, an eternal emblem of hope.<br /><br />The other helmet is footwear for a horse.<br /><br />America needs the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl.<br /><br />One team's history can be found in a museum featuring paper bags once worn by embarrassed fans and tear-stained tissues used by happily weeping fans.<br /><br />The other team's history can be found in a Mayflower moving truck.<br /><br />America needs the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl.</blockquote><br />Here are three of Plaschke's staples: phrase repetition, multiple contrasts and failure to embrace multiple sentence paragraphs. Now, I am not opposed to people who want to have a single sentence or two stand out for emphasis but for nearly every sentence? For the person who suggested that this is a good idea, shame on you. Then again, the joke might well be on me for picking at this.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Nah, it's on Plaschke. ;)<br /><blockquote>There is no cheering in the press box, but that rule doesn't apply to the sports section, and so allow me a few moments today to lead America in a chant that nobody really understands for a team that has absolutely no chance in a place that has taken them more than four decades to find.<br /></blockquote><br />I may not be the award-winning writer that you are, but I am pretty sure the "no cheering" maxim would apply to the sports section as well. Maybe that's why there are blogs like this because you think it's OK to cheer in the box! If you want to do that on a blog, go right ahead. <br /><blockquote>Who Dat Say Dey Gonna Beat Dem Saints?</blockquote><br />Honestly, I would pay to see him say that. If you are reading this, Mr. Plaschke, I dare you to say this three times on "Around the Horn". <br /><blockquote>But I'm rooting like crazy for the other guys because America has rarely needed a sports champion the way it needs the Saints.</blockquote><br />That they won is a very nice story and I am happy for those fans who have been behind them for many years. Seeing a city win it's first major pro title and particularly one like New Orleans is quite neat. Having said that, the hyperbole is so strong from him. <br /><blockquote>As our country lurches and heaves through the ankle-deep sand of its economic recovery, it has not helped the national psyche that every time we turn to our national pastimes for assurances that the little guy can still survive, we run smack into Goliath.<br /><br />-snip-<br /><br />And now Peyton Manning is getting ready to win another Super Bowl?<br /><br />No thanks. Not now. Please. America needs to believe in the impossible again. America needs another dose of revival.<br /><br />-snip-<br /><br />That cannot be allowed to happen, because perhaps no underdog in Super Bowl history has entered the game as so memorably.</blockquote><br />Slow down, man. We are happy for them. Let's not suddenly think this would have been a tragedy for the nation had the Colts won. <br /><blockquote>The Colts owner, Jim Irsay, is a former bodybuilder still living down the reputation of his late father, Bob, who moved the team to Indianapolis from Baltimore in the middle of the night in 1984.<br /><br />The Saints owner, Tom Benson, 82, is a round and rollicking man who still celebrates some wins by pulling out an umbrella and prancing along the sidelines as if leading a Mardi Gras parade.</blockquote><br />You do realize that if not for <a href="http://www.nfltouchdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/sbj200804271301-10.jpg">this guy</a> among others, that umbrella likely would be strutting elsewhere. Perhaps he would have borrowed a spare Mayflower truck? <br /><blockquote>Two weeks of hyperbole whittled into two words of meaning.<br /><br />Go Saints.</blockquote><br />Oh now you have realized your ways? Wonderful. You got your wish. <br /><br />Be happy.Goosehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09119446271328649796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-18620516532592711782010-01-29T15:22:00.000-08:002010-01-29T15:29:03.433-08:00ESPNew YorkSuch a website actually exists, but there is actually an ESPN.com meant to be for all sports fans.<br /><br />On this ESPN.com, you'll find an <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4861174">excellent ranking of every farm system</a> in baseball by resident basement dweller, Keith Law.<br /><br />On the MLB page (again, this is not ESPN New York), you'll find that article linked to with this summary:<br /><blockquote>Law: Mets' Farm System Better than Yankees</blockquote><br /><br />Inside the article, you'll find roughly equal time given to every team in baseball, with short, informative blurbs on each organization and why they are or are not good. The title of the article inside mentions the still-loadedness of the Rangers' farm system, which is relevant since the Rangers are #1 on his list. You will find a short mention, for sake of example, of the Athletics in the introduction to the rankings. These are the only teams given slightly more notice. There is no mention of how the Mets compare to the Yankees, as this has very little, if anything, to do with Law's article.<br /><br />So, yeah, I would guess this is a good example of how to summarize an article. ESPN really captured the essence of the piece and truly put to rest cries of a New York bias.Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-28443795539678502792009-11-17T21:01:00.001-08:002009-11-17T21:10:03.361-08:00Zack Greinke: Now Officially the Greatest Pitcher in Major League History<a href="http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b151/ollywood_/ZACKLOVE.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 132px; height: 198px;" src="http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b151/ollywood_/ZACKLOVE.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />Not because <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4663979">he won his first Cy Young</a> award today in such dominating fashion that it makes me think the BBWAA are on the up-and-up, but because of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/sports/baseball/18pitcher.html?_r=2">this</a>: <br /><br /><blockquote>I thought that could push [CC Sabathia] over the top [in the Cy Young voting], because his won-loss record was way better than mine. <strong>But I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control.</strong></blockquote><br /><br />*sniff* As if I couldn't love him more. <br /><br />And oh, my friends, it doesn't end there. From that paragraph on you have Brian Bannister hailing Greinke's greatness as being a result of his understanding of FIP and Zone Rating and so much more.<br /><br />Joe Posnanski is clearly behind all this.Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2409217226324957988.post-52888188952188151882009-11-17T07:16:00.000-08:002009-11-17T07:21:24.366-08:00A Brief WordI really like reading this blog. Like, a lot. I should try posting in it some time.<br /><br />Also, how'd that Harold Reynolds prediction on Pujols go?Grifhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07760923623382740825noreply@blogger.com1