Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Meaningless Miscellaneous

The following is a compilation of the best active players to have never been selected as an All-Star for their respective leagues. In the interest of full disclosure I should clarify that I think it's foolish to put any stock into All-Star selections when evaluating a player, this is just more of an interest piece than anything else. To qualify a player must have played in at least five seasons in the Major Leagues (prior to the 2009 season), currently be a member of a MLB team, and--most importantly--never been an All-Star. Relievers were required to have played in four seasons prior to 2009.

Listed under each player is what I deemed to be their most "All-Star caliber" season. Unfortunately, Fangraphs' WAR figures only go back to 2002, so I was forced to use Chone's Baseball Projection system instead. It's still very good, the downside is that the WAR values on pitchers appear to not include FIP, which is why I made sure to list that as well. The same goes for position players and WOBA. Here's the results:

-Starting Lineup-

C- Bengie Molina
2005: 2.5 WAR, .335 WOBA, 108 OPS+
1B- Carlos Pena
2007: 5.4 WAR, .430 WOBA, 172 OPS+
2B- Chone Figgins
2005: 4.5 WAR, .339 WOBA, 101 OPS+
3B- Adrian Beltre
2004: 10.1 WAR, .424 WOBA, 163 OPS+
SS- Orlando Cabrera
2003: 3.4 WAR, .354 WOBA, 105 OPS+
OF- Matt Stairs
1998: 4.1 WAR, .380 WOBA, 132 OPS+
OF- Pat Burrell
2002: 4.3 WAR, .390 WOBA, 146 OPS+
OF- Raul Ibanez
2006: 2.9 WAR, .359 WOBA, 125 OPS+
DH- Travis Hafner
2006: 6.2 WAR, .449 WOBA, 179 OPS+

Honorable Mention: Juan Pierre, Jose Guillen, Aubrey Huff, Chris Gomez, Julio Lugo, Kevin Millar, Doug Mientkiewicz, Adam Kennedy, Fernando Tatis, Mark DeRosa, Craig Counsell, David Dellucci

-Starting Rotation-

SP- Tim Wakefield
2002: 3.7 WAR, 3.62 FIP, 162 ERA+
SP- Kelvim Escobar
2007: 5.1 WAR, 3.39 FIP, 134 ERA+
SP- Aaron Harang
2007: 5.7 WAR, 3.71 FIP, 125 ERA+
SP- A.J. Burnett
2002: 3.8 WAR, 3.19 FIP, 122 ERA+
SP- Jarrod Washburn
2002: 4.3 WAR, 3.71 FIP, 141 ERA+

Honorable Mention: Jeff Suppan, Rich Harden, Ryan Franklin, Jeff Weaver, Brett Myers, Brett Tomko

-Bullpen-

RP- Scot Shields
2006: 2.8 WAR, 3.27 FIP, 159 ERA+
RP- Rafael Betancourt
2007: 4.3 WAR, 2.22 FIP, 312 ERA+
RP- Huston Street
2005: 3.2 WAR, 2.75 FIP, 253 ERA+
RP- Octavio Dotel
2002: 3.8 WAR, 2.43 FIP, 234 ERA+
RP- Latroy Hawkins
2003: 3.2 WAR, 2.38 FIP, 243 ERA+

Honorable Mention: Dave Weathers, Bobby Howry, Jorge Julio, Alan Embree, Matt Herges, Julian Tavarez, Jonathan Broxton, Kyle Farnsworth

More Meaninglessness...

-Adrian Beltre currently has 1,613 hits and is 30 years old (I know, he seems older, but I'm pretty sure the Dodgers signed him when he was like eleven, so he's been around for a while. Anyway...). If he were to play ten more seasons in the Major Leagues (including this one) while averaging a mere 142 hits a year, he would finish with 3,000 for his career. Bill James' Career Assessments Tool has him at a 23.3% chance of reaching that exclusive club.

-Edgar Renteria, 33 years old, could reach 3,000 hits by averaging 133 over the next seven seasons (including this one). Bill James has him at a 34.4% chance. Derek Jeter currently has a 97% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Ichiro is at 27.6% and A-Rod has a 90.2% chance.

-Zack Greinke's 2009 statline thus far:
1.61 FIP, 0.833 WHIP, 766 ERA+, 9.75 K/9, 6.50 K/BB

-Juan Pierre has been more valuable through 31 games than he was in 119 games last season. He has a 0.7 WAR so far this season compared to a 0.1 WAR last year. Current season totals: .419/.476/.554--.452 WOBA

-The Pittsburgh Pirates' pythagorean W/L record actually puts them above .500. So far this season, the unluckiest teams have been the Pirates, Indians, Rockies, and Nationals, all of whom have underperformed their pythagorean records by at least three games.

-There is a very simple formula for defeating the Oakland Athletics: throw a left-handed pitcher. Oakland has the worst record in baseball at 3-11 against lefties, compared to a 10-10 record against righties. Statline against LHP: .201/.284/.285.

-Victor Martinez has the best VORP in baseball, followed by Longoria, Beltran, and Bartlett (who continues to play out of his mind).

-Christian Guzman has walked once in in 124 plate appearances. Lucky for him he has a very good batting average (.385) so his OBP isn't struggling... yet. Others have not been so fortunate. Bengie Molina has walked twice in 141 plate appearances for an OBP of .312. Dioner Navarro has two walks through 122 plate appearances with a .205 OBP. Jeff Francoeur, who is usually such a big condoner of walking, has a whopping five walks through 154 plate appearances, which is good for a .266 OBP.

-Franklin Gutierrez is insanely good at defense. He is far and away the best outfielder in the AL and through 307 innings has a 1.000 Revised Zone Rating (RZR). He also has the fourth most Out Of Zone plays(OOZ) of any player at any position.

That's all I've got for now. I'll be sure to get back to more sarcastic satirical banter as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

3 comments:

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Goose said...

That Beltre season sticks out like a sore thumb, doesn't it?

Rook said...

Yeah, and even with how great Beltre's season was that year, after looking at the numbers he surprisingly didn't deserve to make the All-Star team that year over Rolen or Lowell.