And That Happened

The Vindication of Josh Willingham in 20 Plate Appearances

2011-06-24T00:25:00.000-07:00

Don’t EVER get into internet arguments with idiotic baseball fans.

I spent about an hour gathering stats to prove a stupid argument in which I don’t even believe because the OTHER guy is making an argument even dumber. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I came thisclose to arguing that Josh Willingham is clutch.

I don’t actually think Willingham is clutch, but I also don’t think he is anti-clutch, and not just because I don’t believe in clutch as a concept. I think he’s probably just like every other major leaguer in that he performs roughly the same in close-and-late situations as he does in the rest of the game. Which I guess is actually just not believing in clutch as a concept.

That would be simple to argue, that Willingham performs the same in stressful and non-stressful situations. But that wasn’t what was on the table. I won’t quote here exactly what was said, since the Facebook group from which this issue originated is not public (you can join, however -- formerly known as Fire Bob Geren, it is now known as Now that Geren’s Gone, It’s time for some Hope! -- beware of terrible spelling, cringe-worthy grammar, and idiocy), but I will give you assertions and parameters eventually given to me by, well, we’ll call him AJ:

Assertion 1: Willingham does nothing but strike out in clutch situations.
Assertion 2: Willingham strikes out in late game clutch situations. Every time AJ has seen Willingham hit in the 7th inning or later, he more than likely strikes out or gets out in general.*
Assertion 3: Willingham is one of the league leaders in strikeouts. (True!)
Assertion 4: Most of Willingham’s strikeouts come late in the game.**
Assertion 5: According to AJ’s eyes, Willingham has hit better when the team is winning than when the team is losing.
Assertion 6: If you looked at Willingham’s last 10 at bats with the team losing, and his last 10 at bats with the team winning, he probably strikes out more with the team losing.

This is where I come in. This seemed too good to pass up. I had AJ define ONE LAST TIME what he meant by “late” (I didn’t want to do a bunch of research [no baseball-reference sub] and then have him move the goalposts again) and started in. He said the 9th inning, maybe 8th depending on when he came up in the order. I added in the 7th because … well, if I didn’t, I could be looking at games back into April and I am not that dedicated to this argument.

In order to find the last 10 Willingham plate appearances*** with the A’s losing, I used the games played on June 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14. He played on June 15-17, but no plate appearances while the team was losing.

In order to find the last 10 Willingham plate appearances with the A’s losing, I used the games played on May 14, 22, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, June 3, 4, and 16. June 15 and June 17 had no eligible plate appearances, since he was injured on June 17 and did not come to the plate in the later innings on the 15th. Since the A’s have been terrible lately, you can see it took a lot more games to get those plate appearances in winning situations.

Okay, results. I’m sure you’re all waiting with bated breath. Not baited breath, because that would be gross.

In games that the A’s were losing, Josh Willingham struck out 5 times, hit one single, walked once, and flew**** out thrice to right field. Eight of Willingham’s plate appearances while losing resulted in outs.

In games that the A’s were winning, Josh Willingham struck out 3 times, reached on a fielder’s choice once, hit one double, one home run, walked twice, lined out to short, and popped out to first. Six of Willingham’s plate appearances while winning resulted in outs.

The first of those losing strikeouts was on June 14th in the 9th inning to end the game. Willingham saw 6 pitches, the last of which was a called strike. I took score in that game and noted that the called strike was actually a ball. There’s no way of knowing what Willingham would have done in what would have been a 3-2 count, but that brings the strikeout ratio a little closer.

On the surface, with these ridiculous parameters and definitions, AJ is infuriatingly right. But that’s like saying someone is right who says Barack Obama is a bad president because gas prices are too high. Yeah, okay, maybe he’s a bad president, but it’s not because of gas prices! This is when someone can be right but also so trrbly, trrrrrrrbly***** wrong.

Small sample size, first of all. No one besides, like, Tim McCarver should care what Josh Willingham has done in his last ten plate appearances while the team was winning or losing. I briefly considered going through and logging what he’s done in those situations for the entire season, but then I realized I could make shit up and it wouldn’t make a difference to AJ.

Second of all, for this to really be effective (rolling my eyes here, because honestly, what am I trying to prove?) I should look at the same stats for another Athletic, preferably a fan favorite. Ryan Sweeney? Hideki Matsui? Matsui might be fun, because he had a stretch there under Geren where he didn’t play very often and when he did play, my eyes tell me he was bad. In fact, on June 4th after Willingham struck out looking with one on and no outs losing 3-5, Matsui didn’t strike out. No, he grounded into a double play, ending the inning. Which at bat was more costly? The Willingham one, or the Matsui one? Well clearly the Matsui one, since he made two outs and Willingham only made one. Perhaps we should be looking instead at which of the Athletics ground into more double plays close and late? Or have the most “unproductive” at bats. See Willingham’s 9th inning F9 on June 14th, moving Conor Jackson from second to third. Jackson scores on a single in the very next at bat, but the A’s still lose.

Over a thousand words, plus footnotes, to say that 20 at bats is not a large enough sample size from which anyone can extrapolate anything meaningful about Josh Willingham’s close-and-late performance.

Of course, you knew that.

Thus ends my best imitation of a collegiate psychological study, where no conclusive evidence is found to support the hypothesis. As they tell us, inconclusive results can be just as important as conclusive ones, they’re just not as flashy.

Oh, and AJ made a post to say he quit the group because he was tired of arguing with me because I can't seem to shut my mouth. Perhaps it escaped his notice that I typed everything? I could be a mute, for all he knows.

Alas, I should stop taking people so literally.

_______________

*To which I say, no shit! When failing 7 times out of 10 is considered good, even the best are making outs “in general” in the 7th inning or later. But that, I have learned, is taking things too “literally.” But damn, even Skye is not psychic!

**Previous definition of “late” by AJ is 7th inning or later, and also, false!
Innings 1-3: 18K
Innings 4-6: 30K
Innings 7-9: 27K

*** AJ said at-bats, but I’m pretty sure he meant plate appearances.

**** I HATE “flied out” as the past tense of fly out. No.

***** Say this like Charles Barkley would say it.

Fun Fact

2011-04-28T09:20:00.000-07:00

Vladimir Guerrero has had 91 at bats this season (22 games) and hasn't drawn a single walk. History tells us he should get one pretty soon, though. While Vladdy Daddy is widely considered as a notorious free-swinger, he has managed a good OBP over his career (.382) and about 45 walks per season. However, in 2010 he received the lowest number of free passes in his career with 35 (in seasons where he played at least 100 games).

It's almost certain that Guerrero will draw a walk within the next week or so. Nevertheless, I'll be keeping an eye out to see if he can break Craig Robinson's illustrious record of 146 at bats without a walk.

55 more AB's!

A Creepy Kind of Love

2011-03-10T16:46:00.000-08:00

Last week I bought the The Hardball Times 2011 Baseball Annual. I wasn’t planning to buy it when I got to the bookstore, but I was frustrated with my inability to find any other book I wanted to purchase. I scanned through the table of contents to ensure that I would be interested in at least a handful of articles, and the section on the future of fielding sold me.

Today, I flipped open to a random page in the back and about had a heart attack when I saw “The Curious Case of Barry Zito” by Max Marchi. If I were to show you the extent of my fascination with Zito’s career from 2006 (when I started watching baseball and the A’s, telling myself from day one that I would never be a Zito fan and then failing miserably) until now, you might suggest that I look into hiring a therapist. Or perhaps not, since you’re reading this blog. People seem to tolerate the eccentricities of others when they themselves are interested in the ephemera.

Starting into my life as a baseball fan, Zito captivated me with his curveball. I’m sure that others of you, whether you want to admit to it or not, have admired that old 12-6 of his. I used to say, “When he’s got that curve looping and his fastball locating, he’s one of the best in baseball.” I may have been exaggerating a little, but come on. You haven’t experienced baseball until you’ve watched some accomplished slugger watch that curve fall in for a low strike, caught looking, and that baffled expression settled across his face as he walks to the dugout.

So I eagerly dove into this article over my lunch break, stopping to explain to co-workers why I was so excited for this piece. “I’ve been keeping track of his fastball velocity since 2008, I’ve analyzed his starts the best I know how, read everything anyone’s written about him, and listened to everything he’s ever said to the media. Here’s someone who’s taken the time to look deeper into the numbers than I have the ability to do, and I want to see if we’ve come to the same conclusions.”

Yeah, I got some strange looks.

I, like everyone else in baseball, was of the general opinion that the 7-year, $126M contract the Giants offered Zito was absolutely ridiculous.* Despite being an irrational fan of his, I couldn’t see anything he offered the Giants, even off the field, to be worth that much. I checked up on his numbers after the deal was announced and was flabbergasted to see that he’d somehow managed to notch up 16 wins. Surely the Giants weren’t looking solely at that?

Marchi notes that if we look at statistics which actually mean something, Zito’s 2006 year was actually the worst of his career. Stupid San Francisco, right? His 2007 and 2008 seasons were pretty bad, but not as bad as ESPN made them out to be -- which is where I jump in to say I told you so -- and the shocking thing was that in 2009, Zito got better. And not just better, but arguably good.

What Marchi is really after, however, is figuring out why this happened. Going in, I had my guesses. One doesn’t read, hear, and see everything Barry’s done in the baseball world since 2006 and not have a pretty decent grasp of what’s going on with his numbers. His velocity increased, despite pitchers’ tendencies to throw softer as they age and Zito’s being on the wrong side of 30. Marchi doesn’t make a guess as to why the velocity increased from 2008 to 2009, and only tosses out “one wonders whether Zito had some minor physical problems during that period” as something to consider. I’ve had particular interest in fastball velocity** so I’ll focus my comments on velocity, not the difference in movement of Zito’s pitches from 2008-2010.

So here’s where my scary memory comes in. There are three things I’d like to mention, gathered from various places around the web, but all mentioned at one time or another during The Unicorn Hour, a radio show Zito periodically does with Mychael Urban.

1. Regarding Marchi’s throwaway comment about a possible injury, Zito had a wrist injury in late 2007. I remember being shocked that he mentioned it with Urban [at 10:30], not having read anything about a wrist injury in specific or any injury ever.*** That immediately explained away a lot of the confusion I’d had about just why he was so bad in 2007. Then I had two thoughts that made me think a little harder. The first was me wondering why he hadn’t admitted earlier that he was injured, in a get-off-my-back-I’m-hurt-that-explains-my-suckitude kind of way. The second thought was that of course he didn’t talk about the injury, because then it would seem like he was making excuses. So there’s that.

2. Zito spent the 2008-2009 off-season training with none other than Brian Wilson. They cite long toss sessions over canyons as one way they kept in shape for baseball. It’s a well-documented fact that typically, Zito doesn’t do a lot of off-season workouts. He’s been quoted multiple times as saying, “You can’t pull fat.” (Maybe Rich Harden should take that advice?) I have to imagine that one off-season of actually working out could be at least partially responsible for an increase in velocity.

3. The New Windup premiered in Spring Training of 2007 was ditched that same day. Marchi seems to make the claim that that particular new delivery was the same one he used throughout 2007 and 2008. Zito says [at 2:14] that his 2008 windup was the same one he’s always done and that everyone knows. Now, Urban does quote Rick Peterson as saying Zito’s a tinkerer, but it’s unclear if Marchi is aware that the infamous failed delivery change died a quick death a few moments after it was debuted. (For what it’s worth, Zito has always seemed bitter about this whole incident.) Zito did, however, remove the over-the-head hand movement that he used with the A’s, but still kept the high leg kick. Marchi presents convincing evidence that Zito’s release point has dropped and I won’t argue with that.

I can’t express in words how excited I was to see a whole 7 page article dedicated to Barry Zito’s turnaround. As far as the numbers go, I was not surprised by anything presented. I’ve been keeping track of Zito’s fastball and curveball velocities from 2008 literally pitch by pitch, so seeing the velocity jump from 2008 to 2009 was not at all surprising to me. It seemed a bit incomplete, however, without the references to Zito’s minor wrist injury in 2007, his 2008-2009 off-season workouts, and the 2007 Delivery Debacle. But that’s all fixed now!

Next up: A complete analysis of Barry Zito’s hitting and how it’s improved from 2007-2011.

(Totally kidding.

Or am I?****)

*Listing his reasons for choosing the Giants, Zito claims in Part One of The State of the Union that there was more money on the table with another team. I choose to believe him because I’m a sucker, but just about everyone else I’ve talked to about this has called bullshit. [You can download from that link, FWD to 10:36] Additionally, I’d like to comment here that Zito was dead-on about the Giants being a championship team in a few seasons.

**In particular, Zito’s velocity in relation to how well he pitches, and Rich Harden’s velocity in relation to how healthy he is.

*** Clearly I missed the Spring Training article I cited above, which I hadn't read until today. I've spent about three hours listening to various Zito/Urban interviews trying to find that quote in particular and only found it after I'd given up. The audio for the August 24, 2008 interview, taped live, was running in the background of my clackity-clacking keyboard tapping elsewhere about Rich Harden's Italian sportscar body. Yeah, what? Exactly.

****You totally thought I’d forgotten to close my parenthetical, didn’t you?

Let's Make Lemonade!

2011-01-31T14:19:00.001-08:00

You gotta love Angels' fans. They always have a way of looking at the bright side of things, even if what they're looking at is a pitch black, bottomless abyss filled with falling DMV clerks and Pennywise the Clown. Yes, I'm talking about the recent trade of Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for the worst contract in baseball (aka Vernon Wells) during the worst part of said worst contract. This is the site. The author of the article is Lyle Spencer and it's an official MLB blog for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim entitled "Rally Monkeys." Disney and monkeys. Doesn't get any cuter than that right?

Here's the title of the article:

Seriously, what's not to like?

Oh yeah. Let's do this.

Predictably, the Angels' acquisition of Vernon Wells at the expense of Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has the critics howling. They do that largely because that's what they're paid to do, and you can't really fault a person for that. It's the carping of fans that is somewhat baffling.

First of all, critics only say bad things about things that they think are bad. I have not heard a single person say that the Blue Jays made a bad move in getting rid of roughly $81 million and a 32 year old, .329 career OBP-hitting outfielder. Second of all, fans ARE the toughest critics, so why is this so baffling to you?

The Angels just landed a three-time All-Star at 32,

Cool. Made the All Star team once in the last four years, but whatever.

with four years on his contract, for two players who might not have had starting jobs but will get shots to play every day in their new environment. You have to be reaching hard not to like that.

Here's how I look at it. First there's Juan Rivera. Okay, he was not very good last season (injuries notwithstanding), but let's compare a couple players--just for fun.

Rivera Career Statline: .280/.328/.461
Player X Career Statline: .280/.329/.476

Rivera Career OPS+: 106
Player X Career OPS+: 108

Rivera 2006-2010 Statline: .278/.327/.466
Player X 2006-2010 Statline: .275/.329/.469

Rivera 2011 Salary: $5.25 Mil
Player X 2011 Salary: $23 Mil

You will never guess who player X is so don't even try. It's Vernon Wells. I know. Crazy shit!

Now let's take a look at Mike Napoli.

Last three seasons: 2008-2010 (Ranks Among Catchers Min. 1000 PA)
.341 OBP (4th in AL)
.502 SLG (T-1st in ML)
.361 WOBA (3rd in AL--.001 behind Posada)
.244 ISO (1st in ML)
8.2 WAR (3rd in AL)
66 HR (1st in ML)

In case you're curious, Wells has the same number of homeruns as Napoli over the last three years--with about 580 more plate appearances. Napoli also beats him in OBP, SLG, WOBA, ISO, and WAR. And Wells is going to make about $18 mil more than Napoli this year.

Sidenote: The fact that Jeff Mathis (Angels other catcher that platooned with Napoli) has gotten 818 PA's over the last three seasons is probably the single greatest piece of evidence that Mike Scoscia is not nearly as smart as people think he is. Mathis has a .200/.264/.303 statline since 2008. The Angels' justification for playing him over Napoli? His awesome defense.

2008-2010
Mathis UZR: -2.0
Napoli UZR: -5.2

That's pretty damn close. They both aren't very good defensively. Not terrible, but not great either. How about their offense?

2008-2010
Mathis Offensive Value: -48.6
Napoli Offensive Value: +36.8

Okay. That was off topic. This isn't about Scoscia's terrible, overthinking catching decisions... Back to the original topic.

This trade is shitty.

The big talking point is Wells' huge contract, which wouldn't have been an issue back in the day when it was the game that mattered, not economics.

Economics have always mattered. The more money you have to spend on good players, the more money you have to spend on GOOD players. This logic has always been put into play with every MLB team, save maybe the Yankees and their unlimited supply of payroll.

The game does matter. Money is part of the game.

The statistical focus has been on a decline in Wells' metrics defensively, his struggles against left-handed pitching in 2010, his home/road splits showing a significant preference for Toronto cooking, and his career-long struggles at Angel Stadium.

Sounds like some pretty legitimate statistical concerns. This game's played on a field, though, not on a stats sheet. People seem to always forget that!

The author, Lyle Spencer, then goes on to list all these excuses why Wells has played poorly, basically a lot of excuses/assumptions about how the Toronto turf fucked up his knees (which explains why he just had his best season in the last four years, right?). Anyways, back to the good stuff.

Now, on to Wells' statistical oddities in 2010.

You sure about this? Citing statistics does not seem like a good way to support your particular side of the argument.

He flourished at home, with a stat line (batting average, on-base, slugging) of .321/.363/.628 compared to .207/.301/.407 on the road. It happens to every player over the course of a career. His career numbers are closer: .286/.339/.505 at home; .274/.321/.446 on the road. He has hit 124 homers in Canada, 99 in the U.S. If he performs better in front of his family, that's not necessarily such a terrible thing.

I was right.

You reiterated the fact that Wells is coming from the 8th ranked hitter's park in 2010 to the 27th ranked hitter's park in 2010. The general discrepancy between home/away splits according to Baseball-Reference is roughly 40 points in OPS, favoring the home side. Over the course of his career, Wells is 77 points better at home than on the road. That's pretty significant.

What we really should be looking at, however, are his career numbers at Angels Stadium, which I'm sure are most certainly better.

And, yes, he has not hit to his customary level in Anaheim, where his slash line for his career is .226/.267/.340. But he would say that has more to do with the likes of John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields and friends than the ballpark, which he happens to love.

Lyle, I'd like to introduce you to a friend of mine. His name is Logic. Lyle, Logic, Logic, Lyle (shakes hands with irony).

Here's a simple piece of information, kids. It shouldn't be too hard to follow: THE ANGELS HAVE THE SAME PITCHERS AT HOME THAT THEY DO ON THE ROAD. Get it? Good job. You are smarter than Lyle Spencer. Citing the pitchers as a reason why Wells hit poorly at Angels Stadium doesn't make sense unless he also hit poorly against those same pitchers at home. Let's take a look:

Career at Angel Statdium vs. Angels
.226/.267/.340--.607 OPS
Career at Home (Rogers Centre) vs. Angels
.258/.312/.474--.786 OPS

Nice try, Lyle. That's a 179 point difference in OPS. Among road parks in which Wells has played at least 17 games, Angels stadium is the home of his worst OBP (Jacobs Field possesses his only lower OPS). I applaud your attempt at a simple-minded, poorly thought-out, deceitful justification though.

Here are the numbers that should be the focus with respect to Wells' 2010 All-Star season if you are an anxiety-ridden Angels fan:

Oh hell yeah! More stats. This has worked out well for you so far.

.515, ninth in slugging in the AL;

.331, 40th in On-Base Percentage in the AL.

Also, his SLG was 58 points lower over the last 100 games.

31 homers,

One of those went to right field. Kinda nitpicky, I know, but being a dead pull hitter never bodes well, which is probably part of the reason he has a .329 career OBP.

44 doubles, 304 total bases, seventh in the AL in each category; 460 feet, fifth longest homer in the AL;

WHOA WHOA WHOA! WHAT??? Did you just say this fool hit a ball 460 feet?!?!?! Holy shit! I am in utter disbelief right now. That is some legendary, Ruthian-like power right there. Seriously, this is unbelievable. I literally do not believe this.................

so crazy....

460...wow...

(looks up info so friends can share in his amazement)

so amazing...

wait a second...

Oh. That's why I can't believe it. Because it's not true. Mother f*cker made it up.

Wells' farthest home run in 2010 was 453 feet, 42nd longest in baseball and 18th in the AL. I feel cheated. This trade is shitty.

1.000, his fielding percentage as one of two regular outfielders in the Majors (151 games played) to commit not a single error, Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez being the other.

-6.4, his 2010 UZR, good for 56th among 74 eligible Major League outfielders (28th out of 35 AL OF's).

One more Wells fun stat line from 2010: 6-for-10, four homers, seven RBIs in three games. That's what he did at Rangers Ballpark, back home in Arlington.

Yes. This was the very first series of the season. He hit the shit out of the ball that month. Not that this is super relevant or anything, but if you take away the first and last months of the season, here's what Wells' numbers look like:

May/June/July/August

104 Games
.251/.300/.449
15 HR

To be fair, his first and last months were very, VERY good. It's just kinda weird that more than 50% of his homeruns came from 2 out of the 6 months of the season. I don't really know what to make of this other than the fact that he was embarrassingly horrible for about 65% of the season.

The man is a weapon, a pro's pro. By all accounts, he's a calm, generous individual who distinguishes his profession on and off the field.

Good character off the field is very important. Napoli and Rivera were child molesters.

My advice to fans who have endured a fitful, angry winter is to calm down and get ready to enjoy the show. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but it could be something to behold. It's a lot healthier to take that attitude than to drive up your blood pressure needlessly.

Glass is half full. Love it. Too bad that half of the glass is filled with $81 million of mediocrity.

Btw, Napoli was just traded from Toronto to Texas. So Halo Heaven gets to experience hell twenty times a year now. Oh snaps!

The All Kick-Ass Century Team

2011-01-12T15:10:00.000-08:00

Who says you can't make up an All Century Team eleven years into the century? Answer: Everybody. So if you fall into the category of everybody you can just think of it as the all 2000-2010 team. That's catchier anyways. Here we go!

1st Team

C- Jorge Posada
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Chase Utley
3B- Alex Rodriguez
SS- Derek Jeter
LF- Barry Bonds
CF- Andruw Jones
RF- Ichiro Suzuki

SP- Roy Halladay
SP- Randy Johnson
SP- C.C. Sabathia
SP- Johan Santana
SP- Roy Oswalt
RP- Mariano Rivera
RP- Billy Wagner
RP- Joe Nathan

2nd Team

C- Joe Mauer
1B- Lance Berkman*
2B- Jeff Kent
3B- Chipper Jones
SS- Miguel Tejada
LF- Manny Ramirez
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Vladimir Guerrero

SP- Curt Schilling
SP- Andy Pettitte
SP- Javier Vazquez**
SP- Mike Mussina
SP- Tim Hudson
RP- Jonathan Papelbon
RP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- Francisco Cordero

*Berkman split about half his time between the outfield and first base. Most of his defensive value came from first base, so I chose to put him there.
**Before you crucify me, you should know that if I strictly went by Fangraphs' WAR, Vazquez would actually be on the first team. Yeah, he's THAT good. However, I gave Santana the nod over him because Vazquez's only real advantage over him was innings pitched. Santana has easily been the more dominant pitcher.

So there you have it. The best players of the century. I expect both these teams to hold up all the way until year 2100, as there will most certainly not be a better shortstop than Miguel Tejada or a better reliever than Francisco Cordero over the next 89 years.

Keep this post bookmarked. Your great, great grandchildren will be impressed by my prophecy.

REPRESENT!

2010-10-07T15:22:00.000-07:00

One of the commentators on TBS right now during the Yankees/Twins game, talking about Andy Pettitte:

Sometimes you can get guys out on just reputation alone.

Fact: three of Pettitte's eleven wins this year came without him ever throwing a single pitch. The opposing teams (Seattle, Cleveland, and Baltimore) saw his name on the scorecard, said "fuck that" and waited to take their chances against Burnett and Vazquez (who, coincidentally, both lost eight of their own starts based solely on reputation).

I need the Twins to win at least one game in this series if I'm gonna have any chance at winning the $10,000 "Bracket Challenge" on MLB.com. Hopefully the Yanks know about Mauer's rep and just give him second base every time he steps up to the plate.

The Not-So-Social Morgan Network

2010-09-29T16:59:00.001-07:00

School just started up for me again, which means boring professors galore and plenty of free time to look for pieces of sports literature that frustratingly tickle my funny bone in just the right spot. What better way to come back from a long hiatus than to take a look at 'ol Joe's "JoeChat."

IT'S T-SHIRT TIIIIIIIIIIIIIME!

Jay (South Korea: Love ur work Joe! Last night's gem against Washington locked up Halladay for Cy, do you agree?

Joe Morgan (11:09 AM: Well, the fact that Jimenez has not been able to win, I would say yes. Jimenez has pitched well, but he hasn't been able to win and Halladay has won. I think with the fact that the Phillies have won that Halladay will win it.

Number of forms of "win" used in paragraph: 5
Number of forms of "win" necessary in a Cy Young argument: 0
Number of min left in this boring International Business class: 97
Number of billion dollars Mark Zuckerberg has made from Facebook: 22

M@ (Hattiesburg, MS): As wide open as the AL CY Young race is, I haven't heard Jon Lester mentioned once, even though his numbers are better than C.C.'s. across the board, an equal to Felix. For instance, opponents hit .243 off CC, .213 against Felix and .214 against Lester. Did his flirtation with a no-hitter against the Yankees Saturday put him on the map, finally? Who would you give the CY to?

Joe Morgan (11:12 AM): I think he's always been in the race in my mind. I like what Felix Hernandez has done, but he has won only 12 games.

Irrelevant.

People say that he doesn't get support from his teamamtes,

Hernandez has 12 losses. In those 12 losses, the Mariners have scored a grand total of 14 runs. 14. As in two more runs than the number of games lost. As in 1.2 runs scored per game. For 12 starts, saying he didn't get support from his teammates was almost literally true. He was literally 1.2 runs of support away from getting literally no support from his teammates. Literally.

but guess what, every award is a team award.

No it's not. As a matter of fact, I can't think of any actual "team" awards besides the World Series Title. Other than the super obvious ones like Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves, and MVP's, I mean.

Anyways, among A.L. pitchers with at least 160 innings pitched, Sabathia ranks 8th in run support with 7.31 runs per game. Hernandez is dead last (42nd) with 3.75 runs per game.

You can't win the MVP without your teammates.

Yes you can. The M.V.P. award, according to trustworthy Wikipedia, stands for "Most Valuable Player", not "Most Valuable Team-Player As Deemed By Joe Morgan And His Painstakingly Outdated Chass-Like Ways Of Looking At Things" (or M.V.T.P.A.D.B.J.M.A.H.P.O.C.L.W.O.L.A.T.).

Do we look at an MVP candidate and say his team didn't give him a chance to drive in runs?

Who's "we"? Because my answer to your patronizing, sarcastic, condescending, leading, naive, ignorant, arrogant-poised question is... HELL YES!

Also, the Seattle Marines scored less runs than any other team in baseball this year. The Yankees scored the most. You will ignore this information.

The fact is that Felix has won 12 games and CC has won 20.

True fact (well, technically King Felix has 13 wins now, but at the time of the JoeChat this was a true fact). You know what else is a true fact? Felix beat C.C. in ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR, K's, IP, CG, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, and WHIP. True fact.

It is harder to win in a championship environment in New York than in Felix's situation.

Yeah, it's easier to win when your team scores 3.75 runs for you per game and more difficult to win when your team scores 7.31 runs per game. Poor Sabathia man... King Felix has it easy, bro! He's got a castle and a queen and servants and shit!

Just look at AJ Burnett this year.

Awesome example. For heaven's sake just last year this guy threw 207 innings, struck out 195 batters, and posted a 3.1 WAR! What happened? All of the sudden he comes to New York and can't pitch anymore?! Are you kidding me??? Sack up and grow a pair Burnett, this is the Damn Yankees!!!

(**browses at Burnett's Baseball-Reference page**)

....Nevermind all that. Apparently Burnett pitched for the Yankees last year too. My bad.

Felix has done a good job this year, but he's not in the same difficulty level of pitching this year as CC.

Major League Baseball has been around since 1869. During that span the world has witnessed things such as the invention of the automobile, airplane, radio, television, air conditioning, computer, telephone, Coca-Cola, Beatles, Jersey Shore, and--above all-- Facebook. The world has developed drastically in almost every way over the past 141 years. However, what has not developed is the ability of sportswriters (specifically Joseph Morgs) to ignore the ever-so-attractive "wins" category when evaluating pitchers. I'm fairly certain that even Snooki could understand the basic concept if it was written at a 3rd grade level on a spray tan can label.

I'm tired. Class is over. Time to devote the next couple hours to coming up with an idea that will allow me to--much like Mark Zuckerberg did after inventing Facebook--drop out of school and become a billionaire.

!!!!

2010-07-21T11:28:00.000-07:00

Attention, Fire Joe Morgan fans: happy to announce that FJM will ride again, this September 22, on Deadspin. #FJM

If you come across some hilariously bad sportswriting, (I know: what are the chances?), email us through the site. #FJM

Via Twitter

Obscure Basketball News

2010-07-08T19:07:00.000-07:00

Apparently, something happened tonight. Too bad no one publicized it.

Apocalypse

2010-05-03T15:31:00.000-07:00

ESPN SportsCenter just used WAR in displaying how valuable Joe Mauer has been to the Twins over the past three seasons... no joke.

...What are we gonna write about now?

WAR All-Stars - First Month

2010-04-30T11:21:00.000-07:00

So in the pre-season, I did a little post creating an objective All-Star team for each league using just WAR from CHONE. To keep myself busy, I figured at the end of each month, I could do an update using FanGraphs' WAR so far through the season. This team will be assembled using the roster rules for the actual All-Star game (including the recent update to 34). For NL DH, I'll just plug in the best wRAA who isn't starting.

Of course, at this point, this should be mostly hilarious thanks to a pretty small sample size. That, of course, makes it even more fun. One small difference from FanGraphs' WAR: I believe in looking at as many reasonable data points of defense as possible, so for the defensive component, I'll be taking the difference between DRS and UZR. This will probably be a little wonky because UZR, I believe, doesn't update as frequently as DRS, and one week of data makes a lot of difference at this point. Oh well, I don't particularly care. I'm also going to add DRS to pitchers.

American League
Starters
SP - Francisco Liriano, MIN (1.1)
C - Joe Mauer, MIN (1.0)
1B - Justin Morneau, MIN (1.5)
2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (1.7)
3B - Evan Longoria, TB (1.3)
SS - Alex Gonzalez, TOR (1.1)
OF - Nelson Cruz, TEX (1.6)
OF - Carl Crawford, TB (1.4)
OF - Vernon Wells, TOR (1.4)
DH - Jose Guillen, KC (0.6)

Bench
C - Matt Wieters, BAL (0.5)
1B - Paul Konerko, CHW (1.0)
1B - Daric Barton, OAK (1.o)
1B - Kendry Morales, LAA (0.9)
1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET (0.9)
2B - Ben Zobrist, TB (0.9)
3B - Alberto Callaspo, KC (0.8)
SS - Elvis Andrus, TEX (0.8)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez, SEA (1.4)
OF - Austin Jackson, DET (1.1)
OF - Magglio Ordonez, DET (1.1)
OF - Shin-Soo Choo, CLE (1.1)
DH - Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (0.5)

Bullpen
SP - John Danks, CHW (1.1)
SP - Ricky Romero, TOR (1.0)
SP - CC Sabathia, NYY (1.0)
SP - Carl Pavano, MIN (0.9)
SP - Clay Bucholz, BOS (0.8)
SP - Matt Garza, TB (0.9)
SP - Feliz Hernandez, SEA (0.8)
SP - Andy Pettitte, NYY (0.8)
RP - Kevin Gregg, TOR (0.8)
RP - Joel Zumaya, DET (0.7)
RP - Matt Thornton, CHW (0.6)

Nation League
Starters
SP - Roy Halladay, PHI (1.7)
C - Brian McCann, ATL (0.7)
1B - Albert Pujols, STL (1.2)
2B - Chase Utley, PHI (1.5)
3B - Pablo Sandoval, SF (1.0)
SS - Stephen Drew, ARI (1.0)
OF - Colby Rasmus, STL (1.6)
OF - Josh Willingham, WSN (1.2)
OF - Michael Bourn, HOU (1.1)
DH - Ryan Braun, MIL (1.0)

Bench
C - Bengie Molina, SF (0.5)
1b - Adrian Gonzalez, SD (1.0)
1B - Joey Votto, CIN (0.9)
2B - Kelly Johnson, ARI (1.3)
3B - David Wright, NYM (0.9)
3B - Andy LaRoche, PIT (0.9)
3B- Mark Reynolds, ARI (0.9)
3B - Chase Headley, SD (0.9)
SS - Rafael Furcal, LAD (1.0)
OF - Marlon Byrd, CHC (1.0)
OF - Ryan Ludwick, STL (0.9)
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT (0.8)

Bullpen
SP - Tim Lincecum, SF (1.5)
SP - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (1.5)
SP - Adam Wainwright, STL (1.4)
SP - Johan Santana, NYM (1.1)
SP - Ryan Dempster, CHC (1.1)
SP - Brad Penny, STL (1.0)
SP - Josh Johnson, FLA (0.9)
SP - Randy Wells, CHC (0.9)
SP - Jonathan Sanchez, SF (0.9)
RP - Carlos Marmol, CHC (0.6)
RP - Tyler Clippard, WSN (0.6)
RP - Sean Marshall, CHC (0.6)

The MSM Isn't All Bad

2010-04-06T12:42:00.001-07:00

It's no secret that some of what we write here is trying to fill the void in a post-FJM world. We're not as clever as they are, but it still makes the wound of their disappearance a little less painful (at least for us) if we apply our own distaste for the awful sports journalism out there to snarky rips of their pieces.

That said, it's not like the media is always awful, and sometimes I feel the desire to point out when it's not. This almost came true the other day when I thought of breaking down an article from quite possibly the worst writer of the bunch admitting to becoming an amateur sabermetrician. I'm not about to admit I like his stuff, but proof of an open mind is none-the-less appealing (as is a step towards getting the casual fan to understand the value of some of the simpler metrics out there).

In that same vein, I'd like to post this statement from Rangers TV play-by-play man Josh Lewin. I actually like Lewin as an announcer because he seems to know his stuff better than most, and he just plane makes exciting moments more exciting (I'm part of the Gus Johnson Apologists Club, by the way). Still, he has a habit -- which is probably dictated from above -- of going on tangents that often ignore the play on the field and are of little interest to serious baseball fans. He spends quite a bit of time talking about boring, fluffy stories, and repeating things like "Michael Young and Vernon Wells are best friends" every inning. That stuff isn't wrong, and, as Lewin points out below, probably called for and not directed at the audience I belong to, but it is still annoying at times. In a discussion thread at Lone Star Ball, Rangers fans decided to unleash some of their anger at being no-hit by Shaun Marcum for six innings on Lewin and his tangents and fluff trivia.

Lewin then signed on to Lone Star Ball today and posted this response, quoted below. I link to it without further commentary because I think it speaks volumes by itself. It explains, in a way, what we hard core baseball fans probably need to hear about broadcasts, and also shows how honest, human and stand-up some of these media men we criticize can be. It's also just plain cool to see a minor celebrity has the time and impetus to go out of his way to address fans.

Hey Gang...

Just thought I'd check in and express a couple thoughts to you.

As a big fan of this site, one of the simple pleasures after a Ranger game for me is to pop a beverage, turn on MLB TV and scroll through to see what true blue (or red) Ranger fans are thinking... it's something my kids do with me on occasion as well (sans the beverage), which is what prompted me to write this post...

PLEASE PLEASE understand that the broadcast has to serve a wide cross-section of viewers. For now there are way, way, way more casual baseball fans than die-hards, and we have to do our best to throw everyone a little morsel of what it is they want. Believe me, I'm aware that the die-hards don't need all the frivolity and BS to keep 'em eyeballed in for three hours... there are probably a good thousand of you who live and die with every pitch, and no doubt, y'all are the most important fans the Rangers have. But for the 7,999,000 other people in the DFW area, I have to be mindful that they aren't as keyed up or clued in as you guys... we are casting a wide net trying to get as many Texans as possible to start giving a darn and learning the game.

Anyway, that's my cross to bear and I understand those of you who hate that dynamic and want to rail against the injustice of it all... the only thing I ask-- gently and nicely -- is to keep in mind that indeed, there are kids reading your posts as well as adults. My kiddos and I both know that public figures (and kids of public figures) need to have thick skin, but still, words like "douchebag" kind of cut to the core. I'm not here to lecture or censor, but I just wanted to put that out there.

Meantime, I humbly promise I will do my level-best not to be douche-baggy to the best of my abilities... I take my assignment as Rangers TV Voice very seriously, and want to give an A-plus performance every night. But please know that there will be some times that I will, indeed, cater to the casual fans for a half an inning, and/or say something pretty freaking stupid that makes you want to throw something at your TV. I apologize in advance for those times, but I also promise that when the game's 4-4 in the 9th (as it gloriously was yesterday) you will get a spot-on call of all that's going on. Even casual fans don't need any whoop-de-doo when it's 4-4 in the 9th!

Ok, I'm out... back to enjoying the posts and the growing fever for Ranger baseball... but I just wanted y'all, the diehards, to know what's in my heart.

Best wishes and Go Rangers--

-Josh

Unidentified Scout Should Be Unemployed

2010-04-05T11:39:00.000-07:00

According to an anonymous scout:

"Andre Ethier plays right field better than Matt Kemp plays center."

-2009-

Kemp
2.5 UZR
Ethier
-16.2 UZR

Among 63 eligible outfielders, Andre Ethier ranked 58th.

I love MLB.tv... Why the hell is Padilla starting opening day?

Jon Heyman Thinks It's Surprising When Teams With Good Players Are Good

2010-04-05T00:34:00.001-07:00

Here's the story. Basically Mr. Heyman lists seven teams which "could surprise this season." The top three teams to comprise this list are none other than the bottom-of-the-barrel Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, and Minnesota Twins. Or in other words, a team that includes Evan Longoria (don't take his hat!), Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Jeff Niemann, Matt Garza, and David Price... along with two teams that made the playoffs last year.

Heyman's bold, courageous, shot-in-the-dark predictions have inspired me to conduct a list of my own. Here's my "Things That Could Surprise This Season" list:

-Albert Pujols wins the MVP.
-The number one-rated prospect in all of baseball, Jason Heyward, wins the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
-A player that everyone suspected of using steroids gets suspended for using steroids.
-David Eckstein fails to make the 40/40 club.
-Joe Morgan sets the record for most questions answered via ESPNchat without ever actually answering a question.
-The Pirates finish under .500.
-Milton Bradley gets angry.
-Dusty Baker chokes on a toothpick.
-The American League wins the All Star game.
-Duke beats Butler.
-Torii Hunter wins a gold glove.
-Jon Heyman writes bad, pointless articles.

Keep an eye out for these. I have a feeling that at least one or two of them may catch the world off guard.

Opening Day!

How to Tell if Your Lineup is a Piece of Shit

2010-04-03T03:43:00.000-07:00

Clue Number One: Mike Jacobs (.313 Career OBP) is your cleanup hitter.

The All CHONE Teams

2010-03-06T11:20:00.000-08:00

On this boring Saturday, I decided to glance through the CHONE projections and put together an objective set of pre-season All-Star teams. I'll be using the same format used for the real All-Star teams, so YOUR team will have a player! The determining factor is WAR (for NL DH I'll use the second best 1B).

American League
Starters
P - Zack Greinke, KC (6.0)
C - Joe Mauer, MIN (7.3)
1B - Mark Teixeira, NYY (5.1)
2B - Dustin Pedroia, BOS (4.7)
3B - Evan Longoria, TB (5.1)
SS - Derek Jeters, NYY (3.5)
OF - Grady Sizemore, CLE (5.2)
OF - Curtis Granderson, NYY (4.9)
OF - B.J. Upton, TB (4.4)
DH - David Ortiz, BOS (2.3)

Bench
P - CC Sabathia, NYY (5.6)
P - Felix Hernandez, SEA (5.0)
P - Justin Verlander, DET (4.9)
P - Javier Vazquez, NYY (4.7)
P - Joe Nathan, MIN (1.5)
P - Jon Lester, BOS (4.5)
P - Cliff Lee, SEA (4.4)
P - Mark Buehrle, CHW (3.8)
P - Jered Weaver, LAA (3.5)
P - Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (1.4)
P - Joakim Soria, KC (1.4)
C - Matt Wieters, BAL (3.9)
C - Kurt Suzuki, OAK (3.1)
1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET (4.5)
1B - Victor Martinez, BOS (4.5)
2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX (4.3)
2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (4.2)
3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY (5.1)
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE (3.2)
OF - Nick Markakis, BAL (4.3)
OF - Adam Jones, BAL (3.9)
OF - Carl Crawford, TB (3.8)
DH - Adam Lind, TOR (2.1)

National League
Starters
P - Roy Halladay, PHI (5.9)
C - Brian McCann, ATL (4.7)
1B - Albert Pujols, STL (7.2)
2B - Chase Utley, PHI (6.1)
3B - David Wright, NYM (5.2)
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA (7.3)
OF - Carlos Beltran, NYM (4.9)
OF - Matt Holliday, STL (4.9)
OF - Ryan Braun, MIL (4.6)
DH - Prince Fielder, MIL (5.2)

Bench
P - Tim Lincecum, SF (5.8)
P - Dan Haren, ARI (4.7)
P - Matt Cain, SF (3.9)
P - Cole Hamels, PHI (3.8)
P - Ubaldo Jiminez, COL (3.8)
P - Roy Oswalt, HOU (3.4)
P - Paul Malholm, PIT (3.2)
P - Jonathan Broxton, LAD (1.4)
P - Heath Bell, SD (1.2)
P - Carlos Marmol, CHC (1.0)
C - Russel Martin, LAD (3.9)
1B - Ryan Howard, PHI (4.4)
1B - Adrian Gonzalez, SD (4.2)
1B - Joey Votto, CIN (3.6)
2B - Dan Uggla, FLA (3.1)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman, WSN (5.0)
3B - Chipper Jones, ATL (3.8)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL (6.3)
SS - Jose Reyes, NYM (5.2)
SS - Yunel Escobar, ATL (4.7)
OF - Matt Kemp, LAD (4.5)
OF - Justin Upton, ARI (3.8)
OF - Jason Bay, NYM (3.7)

Interesting group. I'm surprised by how many sub-4 WAR players make it. And, of course, the real team would have four shortstops and five first basemen.

Wild(ly wrong) Thing

2010-03-05T22:48:00.000-08:00

So I'm watching the MLB Network because I have a horrible addiction to getting hyped for every sport I love about the month before the season starts, and it's less painful than ESPN.

But it still sucks.

I'm watching the 30 in 30 deal where the panel talks about the Phillies upcoming season. Mitch Williams, brought in as an objective commentator with no ties to the team, decides to launch in to how the pivotal point in their rotation is one Cole Hamels. He explains Hamels's "let down" in 2009 thusly:

We thought in 2008 after Cole Hamels went through the post season, MVP of the divisional series, MVP of the World Series. He got caught up in all of this MVP hype. He's a young kid. At that time in your career, you don't want to say no to anyone. You think it's rude to say no. Bottom line is: he didn't get the work done in the winter that he needed to get done because he didn't say no, it caught up to him, and 2009 was a big disappointment.

John Hart -- who the network insists on showing with a Rangers logo every time he talks to make me cry -- agrees.

Well, I'm sure Mitch Williams not only knows Cole Hamels but does this psychoanalysis on his own. So let's see. Hamels struck out .05 more batters per nine. Pretty much the same thing, and, in fact, a little bit improved. He also walked .1 fewer batters per nine, again improvement, but not meaningful. Oh wait, here we go: HE GAVE UP .01 MORE HOME RUNS PER NINE INNINGS! Cole Hamels, you schmuck! You were so full of yourself you gave up a whole extra home run every 900th inning pitched. That's pathetic, man, stop buying in to your MVP hype.

So, atrocious collapse in home runs allowed aside, what else do we have? He actually approved his line drive rate by 1%, again an improvement but not much of one. His ground ball rate also improved by almost 1%. His fly ball rate was exactly the same. So, other than the fact that his home run rate skyrocketed, Cole Hamels was exactly the same pitcher, if not better in 2008 by all this stuff. That seems supported by his FIP being exactly 3.72 both years.

My gosh, what could have changed. Oh yeah, his batting average on balls in play. That thing he has almost no damn control over in any way whatsoever. Oh my god. It went from a very lucky .270 in 2008 to a very unlucky .325 in 2009. You see, Cole Hamels? Are you listening to me, douche? This is what future Hall of Famer (both baseball and psychiatry) Mitch Williams was talking about, dumbass. If you believe your MVP hype KARMA WILL GET YOU!

Seriously, though, I hate you, Mitch Williams. I hate you for getting paid more than I'll ever make to do less homework than I just did in five minutes because you cost your team the World Series once. Cole Hamels, inning for inning, was almost the exact same pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 (that pitcher is pretty awesome, btw). You, however, are too lazy/uneducated to actually figure out what was different about him, so you make up some nonsense that you know the masses will just trust because you played The Game and no one will challenge you on save an anonymous loser with a blog that no one reads. Get off my TV.

ATH on ATH

2010-02-24T14:07:00.000-08:00

Today's little snippet comes from Woody Paige. This is in response to J.A. Adande calling Kobe Bryant the best player in the league at making difficult shots:

I find it funny J.A. said he's (Kobe Bryant) the toughest shot shooter in the league. That's like saying any landing is a good landing. All landings on planes I'm on, when it gets on the ground--same way if the shot goes in, that's not a tough shot.

No idea what Woody was trying to say about planes. Whatever. The shot thing is utterly moronic. Just because the shot goes in doesn't mean that it lacked a greater degree of difficulty. I don't care what you say, Lebron dunking on Nate Robinson is easier than Derek Fisher putting up a shot with 0.4 seconds left and Manu Ginobli on his hip.

Paige is old.

Hot Piece of Chass

2010-02-16T02:08:00.000-08:00

My, oh my, how the time flies. Sorry for the horrific slack job over the last few weeks, people. Discovering the tv show Dexter will do that to you. But much like my favorite prime time serial killer, I'm back to slice up whatever shitty sportswriting that has transpired. What better place to start than with the notorious, multiple-offender Murray Chass? This guy is pissed off that people have the nerve to have an opinion about the stuff he writes on his site published on the world wide web. Let's find out why.

There is nothing in sports that creates the controversy and the debate provoked by voting for the Hall of Fame. More than a week after the results of the latest voting were announced, I was still getting e-mail about the results. Everyone is an expert, fans and bloggers alike. They all know better than the people who actually vote in the election, and they eagerly tell us so.

Kinda comes with the territory, Chassy. Don't consistently post articles on a website (it's not a blog!) and not expect people to comment on what you're saying. If it bothers you so much perhaps you should be posting these articles in a word document, not the internet.

A reader of this site told me in an e-mail that my ballot, which I disclosed before the results were announced, “contains votes for players I do not believe deserve to be in the Hall of Fame and you failed to vote for players who clearly deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.”

Sounds like an intelligent guy--not to mention very level-headed. I would have thrown a few more adjectives in there. I mean, the guy did vote for Jack Morris over Bert Blyleven.

“Clearly deserve” in whose judgment? His, of course. Does that make him right and me wrong? Of course not. Am I right? Yes. Why? Because my opinion counts and his doesn’t. My ballot was one of the 539 counted in the election. He did not have a vote. Therefore, his opinion is worthless as far as the election is concerned.

That's right, everyone. Murray Chass's opinion is correct because he has a vote... So, theoretically, if I had a vote and I voted for Jose Vizcaino (he signed my hat when I was little, ought to be worth a decent amount if he's in the Hall of Fame, right?!), none of the 6 billion other people in the world who do not have a vote could be allowed--nor hold the right-- to criticize, question, or belittle my status as a BBWAA member.

If President Barack Obama decides tomorrow that he wants to suspend the writ of habeas corpus to all Americans, he is right in doing so because he has been placed in that position and all decisions he makes are absent of error.

Makes sense.

That’s the real problem self-proclaimed experts have. They want to be the ones voting, but they don’t have that privilege. It’s their own fault. They chose the wrong profession. Accountants, lawyers, doctors, teachers and salesmen don’t get to vote for the Hall of Fame. Baseball writers do.

I don't think it's so much that they/we want to be the ones voting, it's just that they/we would like it if those incredibly intelligent, righteous, god-like experts already put in the prestigious position of power took more than three hours before the deadline to think about their decision. Is that really too much to ask? They/we don't think so.

When I started out in life, I wanted to be a baseball writer, not so that I could vote for the Hall of Fame. I didn’t know anything about voting then, but it is something that came with the territory.

Awesome. I hope you know that by writing this article you have made it impossible for yourself to ever bitch about any other profession ever again. All of us "self-proclaimed experts" are gonna be on the lookout for when you slip up. Consider yourself warned, sir.

Actually, I don’t believe baseball writers should be voting for the Hall of Fame, though I don’t know of a more qualified group, which is why the Hall maintains its association with the Baseball Writers Association.

You didn't trick anybody here, Chassy. You basically just said that you think baseball writers absolutely should be voting for the Hall of Fame because they are superior beings, and hence the most qualified.

"I don't believe that Albert Pujols should have won the NL MVP last year, though I don't know a more qualified player, which is undoubtedly why he won."

Most of the Hall arguments today seem to be statistics-centered. I get the idea that the stats zealots would draw up charts based on their new-fangled numbers and decide on the basis of the numbers who should be in the Hall of Fame. No thinking necessary.

Dare to dream, right? I have a feeling that you'll do your best to see that such dreams never come to fruition though. I'm curious, what are people supposed to be looking at in terms of qualification for induction? Dominance? Intimidation? How greatly they "stood out among the rest"? None of these things can be accurately determined without the use of statistics, whether you're using Chassy-endorsed stats such as Wins, Losses, and ERA, or more valuable and current statistics such as FIP, WAR, and VORP.

The point is if nobody ever looked at stats the Hall of Fame would be full of guys like Juan Pierre and Bo Jackson... and Derek Jeter would be considered the best defensive shorstop of all time.

Blyleven’s statistics have endeared him to the stats zealots. One of their big numbers is his strikeouts. He had a lot of them, 3,701. Tommy John, who otherwise had similar career statistics to Blyleven’s, struck out 2,245.

Not really sure why Tommy John is all of the sudden thrown into the mix. But okay, I'll play along. Bert Blyleven has the 13th highest Career WAR among pitchers all time (Baseball Projection). He's ahead of pitchers such as Christy Mathewson, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, and Steve Carlton. Yes, he had 3,701 career strikeouts (5th all time). He also finished in the top seven in K/9 fourteen times, had 60 career shutouts (9th all time), and put up an awesome 3.19 career FIP. That FIP is better than Greg Maddux, Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn, Dennis Eckersley, Jim Palmer, and a few thousand other current and former MLB pitchers.

Tommy John is 43rd all time in WAR (Jack Morris was 139th, just fyi) and had a 3.38 career FIP (Morris had a 3.94 career FIP... maybe your argument should have been for him instead of Morris. Granted, Blyleven is still significantly better, but it'd had been less embarrassing for an esteemed, heavenly sportswriter such as yourself to make an argument for John rather than for a player who--had he not pitched one great world series game in 1991--you would not be endorsing so damn persistently).

I think strikeouts get far too much attention and emphasis.

Other than inducing a double-play groundball, there's almost nothing more beneficial for a pitcher and his team. Striking a hitter out reduces the chances of the other team scoring during that at bat by quite a large margin. Let's face it, strikeouts are sexy.

Strikeouts are sexy.

You're sexy.

John, however, was a sinkerball pitcher and got more outs on batted balls and fared just as well as Blyleven. John had a career 288-231 record with a 3.34 earned run average. Blyleven’s record was 287-250 and his e.r.a. 3.31. John retired 57 percent of the batters he faced, Blyleven, with all his strikeouts, 59 percent. Yet in the eyes of the stats zealots, the voters were justified for not electing John but not for rejecting Blyleven.

Do they teach math at the University of Pittsburgh? Hold on, let me check... Interesting. Turns out they do. Yet somehow Mr. Murray here managed to calculate something as simple as Opponents On-Base Percentage COMPLETELY WRONG. If John and Blyleven retired 57 and 59 percent of the batters they faced, then their respective OPP OBP totals would be approximately .430 and .410. That is bad. Perhaps Chass should have spent less time sipping a cola beverage by the jukebox in the diner and more time in the classroom!

Burn.

The arguments will go on incessantly, and the conclusions will be I’m right, you’re wrong. Or is it you’re right, I’m wrong?

The latter...... jackass.

Ranking the Basements

2010-02-09T21:30:00.000-08:00

I found this neat piece via Baseball Think Factory's Newsstand describing the basements of well-known* saberfriendly bloggers. Check it out with a sample about the formerly flanneled one:

Every piece of furniture in Rob Neyer's well apportioned man cave is woven entirely out of flannel, except the 12-foot tall ice sculpture entitled "Lord James in Repose", which is carved from the frozen tears of pure, unrequited love.

*The only one I had not heard of, Hjort, does have a pretty nice blog. His newest post about the Braves's outfield situation is a great read: Outfield Platoon Matrix

A Return to Arms

2010-02-08T18:36:00.000-08:00

That's right. I am back for more and what a better way to restart than to go with one of our old reliables, Bill Plaschke. It's an article outlining how important it is that the Saints win. Since this is coming after the Saints's Super Bowl victory (Congrats to them), I cannot do any playful teasing of him not getting his wish. Even so, it's a Plaschke piece so there's certainly something to say about it. From the LA Times website:

One helmet is an ancient symbol of rebirth, an eternal emblem of hope.

The other helmet is footwear for a horse.

America needs the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl.

One team's history can be found in a museum featuring paper bags once worn by embarrassed fans and tear-stained tissues used by happily weeping fans.

The other team's history can be found in a Mayflower moving truck.

America needs the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl.

Here are three of Plaschke's staples: phrase repetition, multiple contrasts and failure to embrace multiple sentence paragraphs. Now, I am not opposed to people who want to have a single sentence or two stand out for emphasis but for nearly every sentence? For the person who suggested that this is a good idea, shame on you. Then again, the joke might well be on me for picking at this.

Nah, it's on Plaschke. ;)

There is no cheering in the press box, but that rule doesn't apply to the sports section, and so allow me a few moments today to lead America in a chant that nobody really understands for a team that has absolutely no chance in a place that has taken them more than four decades to find.

I may not be the award-winning writer that you are, but I am pretty sure the "no cheering" maxim would apply to the sports section as well. Maybe that's why there are blogs like this because you think it's OK to cheer in the box! If you want to do that on a blog, go right ahead.

Who Dat Say Dey Gonna Beat Dem Saints?

Honestly, I would pay to see him say that. If you are reading this, Mr. Plaschke, I dare you to say this three times on "Around the Horn".

But I'm rooting like crazy for the other guys because America has rarely needed a sports champion the way it needs the Saints.

That they won is a very nice story and I am happy for those fans who have been behind them for many years. Seeing a city win it's first major pro title and particularly one like New Orleans is quite neat. Having said that, the hyperbole is so strong from him.

As our country lurches and heaves through the ankle-deep sand of its economic recovery, it has not helped the national psyche that every time we turn to our national pastimes for assurances that the little guy can still survive, we run smack into Goliath.

-snip-

And now Peyton Manning is getting ready to win another Super Bowl?

No thanks. Not now. Please. America needs to believe in the impossible again. America needs another dose of revival.

-snip-

That cannot be allowed to happen, because perhaps no underdog in Super Bowl history has entered the game as so memorably.

Slow down, man. We are happy for them. Let's not suddenly think this would have been a tragedy for the nation had the Colts won.

The Colts owner, Jim Irsay, is a former bodybuilder still living down the reputation of his late father, Bob, who moved the team to Indianapolis from Baltimore in the middle of the night in 1984.

The Saints owner, Tom Benson, 82, is a round and rollicking man who still celebrates some wins by pulling out an umbrella and prancing along the sidelines as if leading a Mardi Gras parade.

You do realize that if not for this guy among others, that umbrella likely would be strutting elsewhere. Perhaps he would have borrowed a spare Mayflower truck?

Two weeks of hyperbole whittled into two words of meaning.

Go Saints.

Oh now you have realized your ways? Wonderful. You got your wish.

Be happy.

ESPNew York

2010-01-29T15:22:00.000-08:00

Such a website actually exists, but there is actually an ESPN.com meant to be for all sports fans.

On this ESPN.com, you'll find an excellent ranking of every farm system in baseball by resident basement dweller, Keith Law.

On the MLB page (again, this is not ESPN New York), you'll find that article linked to with this summary:

Law: Mets' Farm System Better than Yankees

Inside the article, you'll find roughly equal time given to every team in baseball, with short, informative blurbs on each organization and why they are or are not good. The title of the article inside mentions the still-loadedness of the Rangers' farm system, which is relevant since the Rangers are #1 on his list. You will find a short mention, for sake of example, of the Athletics in the introduction to the rankings. These are the only teams given slightly more notice. There is no mention of how the Mets compare to the Yankees, as this has very little, if anything, to do with Law's article.

So, yeah, I would guess this is a good example of how to summarize an article. ESPN really captured the essence of the piece and truly put to rest cries of a New York bias.

Zack Greinke: Now Officially the Greatest Pitcher in Major League History

2009-11-17T21:01:00.001-08:00

Not because he won his first Cy Young award today in such dominating fashion that it makes me think the BBWAA are on the up-and-up, but because of this:

I thought that could push [CC Sabathia] over the top [in the Cy Young voting], because his won-loss record was way better than mine. But I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control.

*sniff* As if I couldn't love him more.

And oh, my friends, it doesn't end there. From that paragraph on you have Brian Bannister hailing Greinke's greatness as being a result of his understanding of FIP and Zone Rating and so much more.

Joe Posnanski is clearly behind all this.

A Brief Word

2009-11-17T07:16:00.000-08:00

I really like reading this blog. Like, a lot. I should try posting in it some time.

Also, how'd that Harold Reynolds prediction on Pujols go?

Derek Jeter Wins AL Cy Young

2009-11-02T14:36:00.000-08:00

"Derek Jeter wins the Silver Slugger Award for every position, including DH."

"Derek Jeter wins Rookie of the Year in his 15th major league season."

"Derek Jeter wins NL Manager of the Year."

"Derek Jeter wins futuristic Career Clutch Performer Award"

Notice that he didn't win MVP? Apparently that's the only award he can't win, which makes little sense when you consider the infinite amount of tangible intangibles (yeah, his intangibles are THAT valuable) this guy brings to the table each and every day. It's a twisted universe we live in. Okay, so he only won the Hank Aaron Award, but it's still a travesty nonetheless. This man--if you can even call him that, more like a king, or god-- has now won this award twice. It is supposed to go to the best offensive player in each league. Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Ben Zobrist, and Kevin Youkilis are among those who should be upset--as well as those who are fond of logic.

We've addressed the Hank Aaron Award issue a few times at ATH. Originally I was pissed off about most of the previous winners, then Grif was pissed off about Aramis Ramirez winning, and then I was pissed off again. This could be a very prestigious award if it were done right. Sadly, I do not see that being the case in the foreseeable future, so we will inevitably remain pissed off.

Good day.

Tools to Victory: Game 4 Edition

2009-11-01T18:20:00.000-08:00

New spokesperson for Home Depot? I think so. I'd lock this guy up with an endorsement deal for life, brah! Especially with all the brain knowledge he be spittin' out about these victory tools. Case in point:

Yankees

Offensive support for C.C.

Phillies

Blanton, not Lee... We'll see.

Translation: the Yankees need to score runs to win and the Phillies need to... see if Blanton will be better than Lee? See if Blanton will actually be pitching and not Lee? They need to see...... something. I give up. I have no clue how "Blanton, not Lee... we'll see" qualifies for any type of advice or tools for victory. McCarver has entered a new realm of stupidity here, folks. I'm pretty sure he lacks some type of mental capacity.

These "tools" leave the door wide open for what we can expect for the rest of the series.

"Score runs for Lee"

"Francisco, not Stairs... risky affairs"

"Look out for A-Rod!"

"Dynasty? It may be too soon... we'll see"

"Release your inner Phillie Phanatic"

"Jump ahead, stay ahead"

"Win or go home"

I am 83% sure that that last one will be an actual one for the Phillies in game five........... we.will.see.

Tools to Victory!

2009-10-30T01:04:00.000-07:00

I don't know about you, but my favorite part of each and every Joe Buck/Tim McCarver-broadcast is McCarver's segment entitled "keys to victory." Unfortunately for the popular tool franchise, Home Depot drew the short stick when picking advertising space and was stuck with the aptly renamed "Home Depot's Tools to Victory." This is unfortunate for two reasons: 1) Tim McCarver is saying and thinking up the tools to victory and 2) the tools to victory that are being said and thought up are by Tim McCarver. In case you missed it (which I find hard to believe because it is the most thought-provoking, knowledge-based portion of an already crisp, chemistry-filled, intelligently-weaved, and inspiring part of every broadcast), here it is:

Phillies

Playing with house money, Pedro is the croupier.

Yankees

Must win? You better believe it!

That was an actual graphic on a nationally-televised broadcast of the mother thumpin' World Series. The Phillies would have won game 2 Thursday night if only they had envisioned themselves gambling at a casino while Pedro Martinez collected and paid bets of fellow gamblers. Instead, the Phillies spent all their time drinking, gambling, and coming up with half-baked plans to "beat the house" and completely forgot to swing at all of A.J. Burnett's backdoor curveballs. In the meantime, Pedro was going about his business and doing his job as the croupier while Ryan Howard got high in the bathroom laughing his ass off while gazing at "The Men Who Stare at Goats" movie poster. "Clooney is an army Jedi warrior!" he would say as he laughed hysterically, striking out four times and turning fake double plays in the process.

The Yankees executed a much simpler plan of attack against the Phillies: win. I wonder how creative McCarver will get with his game 3 Tools to Victory. I came up with a few that I think should play well.

"Experimenting with Performance-Enhancing drugs, Pettitte is the supplier."

"Flying to Hawaii, Victorino is the travel agent."

"Rising from the dead, Derek Jeter is Christ."

"Touring the red-light district, Jimmy Rolilns is your guide."

"Win or be forced to play Game 4 down 2-1."

"May the best Molina win."

Stay tuned.

Classy Chassy!

2009-10-27T01:00:00.001-07:00

Murray Chass! Murray Chass! Murray Chass!

WILL NO AWARD MAKE GREINKE CRANKY?

I don't know about Greinke, but no award would make Rook cranky. No award for Greinke would make Rook very cranky. Even more cranky than a swanky Yankee who needs a hanky when he's crying and shaky.

Awesome headline. Awesome.

Zack Greinke pitched two seasons in one this season. If he had pitched only the better of the two, he would be a clear-cut winner of the American League Cy Young award. As it is, he will probably win the award anyway, but if I were voting - and I am not - I would vote for Felix Hernandez.

Fair enough. I mean, Felix did have the edge over Greinke in all of the 16 following categories:

ERA
ERA+
FIP
tRA
tRA+
K's
CG
ShO
WHIP
HR/9
K/BB
WHIP
K/9
RAR
WARP1
WAR

My bad. I screwed that up. Greinke beat Hernandez in all of those categories. Felix beat him in W/L and tied him in Intentional Walks. Oh and he beat him in Clutch Wins For A Competitive Team (C.W.F.A.C.T). Sadly, Greinke didn't compile any CWFACT's after May 7th. That's when the Royals realized they had no business leading the division by three games (18-11 record) and quickly returned to their familiar ways by going 47-86 over their last 133 games. Yeah, that's a .353 winning percentage. Can't get any CWFACT's like that!

Greinke was terrific this season, at times awesome, no question about it.

Wait for it...

In many of his games he almost seemed unhittable.

Keep waiting...

He won games on his own.

Almost there...

He had to because he pitches for the Kansas City Royals, one of the worst offensive teams in the major leagues.

Here it comes!

But then, the only worse offensive team is the one Hernandez pitches for, the Seattle Mariners.

Oh shit, son! You thought he was gonna change his mind to Greinke for a second, didn't ya? Wrong!

Fangraphs had the Royals as actually being a little worse offensively, but the Mariners did score fewer runs so I can see where Murray Man's coming from. Does it really matter that Hernandez played for an equally shitty offensive team? Felix had a run support of 5.6 per game and Greinke was at 4.8.

The answer is no, it does not matter.

But there are those two separate seasons Greinke pitched. In his 21 starts before May 31 and after Aug. 3 the 25-year-old right-hander had a 14-2 record and a 1.30 earned run average. Greinke, however, started 12 games from May 31 through Aug. 3, and the results weren’t as dominant as his 21-start performance.

Three stats. You are gonna give me three stats to work with here. ERA. Wins. Losses. Why even cite wins and losses? YOU LITERALLY JUST TALKED ABOUT HOW HE PITCHES FOR ONE OF THE WORST OFFENSES IN BASEBALL. Call me crazy, but I'm thinking that a pitcher's run support generally goes hand in hand with whether or not they win baseball games. Robin McLaurim Williams taught me that, and that man is anything but crazy.

In that stretch Greinke compiled a 2-6 record and had a 3.84 e.r.a. That’s not Cy Young material, and that’s what voters have to consider along with the results of Greinke’s 21 pre-May 31 and post-Aug. 3 starts and his over-all record: 16-8 and a league-leading 2.16 e.r.a.

3.84 ERA? That's the best you could do? Most of that came on the last day of your nitpicking sample size. He gave up six earned runs on August 3rd. That's not good, but it's also one freakin start. You also cited wins and losses again. That aint classy, Chassy. Okay, it's my turn... Felix Hernandez had a 4.13 ERA after his first nine starts to start the season. During that time he also put together a 1.34 WHIP. Now if that doesn't spell "Cy Young" I don't know what does. Booyah!

Bee-Tee-Dub, why is "e.r.a." not capitalized? That kinda bugs me. Whatever. Murray Chass is old.

In a different kind of separation Greinke pitched five complete games in his first 11 starts, then only one in his next 22 starts. Let’s not hold that against him, though.

Okay cool. So that means you're not going to include it in this article, right?

Hernandez has had only two complete games all season. On the other hand, Hernandez pitched a league-leading seven games without allowing a run in at least seven innings.

Yes, but Greinke threw more nine inning games without allowing a run. What are those called? Ah... I remember: shutouts. An actual statistic, not one you had your grandson look up on the computer thingy that Vorpies play with in their mother's basements.

Hernandez, a 23-year-old right-hander, did not survive the season without a “poor” period, but he limited the damage. In four games in May he lost three times, didn’t win once and had a 6.75 e.r.a. That, however, was the extent of his off-peak pitching.

I found a nine-start stretch that wasn't very spectacular either. Your grandson must think he's pretty slick, huh? Well I'm onto you Murray Chass III!!!

With a scheduled Sunday start against Texas and 17-game winner Scott Feldman remaining, Hernandez had 18 wins (only 5 losses), a .783 winning percentage, a 2.48 e.r.a., a .230 opponents batting average and 211 strikeouts in 232 innings. Those figures all placed in the top four in the A.L., a status unmatched by any other pitcher.

Cranky Greinke had 25 more strikeouts and a 2.16 ERA. Mister Chassy goes on to say more nonsense about wins and how amazing they are and how Hernandez could have ended up with 20 if he had a good offense behind him blah blah blah etc. etc. etc.

Alas, I am done with you, Chass. I will not take your sass, your tone is too crass. You tell time with an hourglass and watch baseball games with a spyglass. You, my dear friend, are an ass.

Rook is out!

McGwire Hired As Cards Hitting Coach

2009-10-26T19:49:00.000-07:00

Here's the story from MLB.com. In the article, McGwire reveals his simple 3-step plan for offensive success.

1. Acquire the needle.
2. Drop the pants.
3. Insert the needle.

.
..
...
....
.....
......

Yeah... that was tasteless, and maybe mildly humorous at best, but I couldn't resist.

Speechless

2009-10-18T22:00:00.000-07:00

If you think the title of my post is regarding some of the classic games that have gone on during the 2009 MLB playoffs, you would be wrong. What I'm about to show you is possibly the worst baseball article we have linked to on ATH. I cannot even muster the energy to rip this. It's just too painful. You will just have to see for yourself with a brief snippet From Philly.com; Do not say I didn't warn you:

The Dodger Crips, should we fear them?

A little.

They have a tequila- strong lineup, but their starting pitching is light beer.

Basically, Dodger Crips are a bunch of Porsche-driving, starlet-chasing, cocaine-sniffing, surfboard-waxing, Armani-wearing, spritzer-drinking, sunshine-soaking, tofu-eating, leg-hair-waxing, sunglasses-wearing weinies.

*mouth agape*

The Six Months Awards-- Final Edition

2009-10-06T22:20:00.000-07:00

AL MVP- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Joe Mauer, Ben Zobrist, Justin Verlander

AL Cy Young- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez

Donald Zackary Greinke finished first in the American League in the following categories: ERA, ERA+, tRA, tRA+, tRA*, pRAA, WHIP, FIP, VORP, HR/9, WARP1, WARP2, WARP3, and WAR. He also finished second in CG, Shutouts, and K's. Since 2002, only two other pitchers have put together a WAR of at least 9.3--Randy Johnson in '04 and Curt Schilling in '02. I don't expect him to win the actual MVP trophy when it's announced in a couple weeks (and that's okay, Mauer had an awesome season, too), but at the very least he should walk away as the clear-cut choice for the Cy Young. These kind of pitching seasons don't come around too often nowadays.

BBWAA AL MVP Prediction: Joe Mauer, MIN
BBWAA AL Cy Young Prediction: Zack Greinke, KCR

NL MVP- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman

I suppose there's no real surprise here. Defensively he put up great numbers as always. He finished first amongst NL first basemen with a +14 from John Dewan's Plus/Minus fielding system, his 8.5 WAR was easily the best in the league, and he led just about every valuable offensive metric imaginable. El hombre es la máquina y se eliminará la que.

BBWAA NL MVP Prediction: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Javier Vazquez, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright

Much like Greinke, Lincecum led in a large number of categories. Some of these included FIP, tRA, K's, K/9, WAR, etc. It was a rather easy decision when you take everything into account, such as innings pitched along with the philosophy of evaluating a pitcher based on what is within his control. Sadly, though, I don't think Lincecum will win.

BBWAA Prediction: Chris Carpenter, STL

NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez

AL Hank Aaron- Joe Mauer, MIN
Honorable Mention: Mark Teixeira, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter

NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Honorable Mention: Brian Wilson, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell

AL Reliever of the Year- Matt Thornton, CHW
Honorable Mention: Mike Wuertz, Andrew Bailey, Phil Hughes

NL Rookie of the Year- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
Honorable Mention: Seth Smith, Randy Wells, Tommy Hanson

AL Rookie of the Year- Brett Anderson, OAK
Honorable Mention: Elvis Andrus, Jeff Niemann, Andrew Bailey

NL Least Valuable Position Player- Alfonso Soriano, CHC
Dishonorable Mention: Garret Anderson, Emilio Bonifacio, Jeff Francoeur

AL Least Valuable Position Player- Yuniesky Betancourt, SEA/KCR
Dishonorable Mention: Aubrey Huff, Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye

NL Cy Yuk- Braden Looper, MIL
Dishonorable Mention: Jeff Suppan, Chris Volstad, Jamie Moyer

AL Cy Yuk- Armando Galarraga, DET
Dishonorable Mention: Mark Hendrickson, Fausto Carmona, Kyle Davies

-NL Gold Gloves-
P- Aaron Cook, COL
C- Russell Martin, LAD
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- Brendan Ryan, STL
OF- Nyjer Morgan, PIT/WAS
OF- Randy Winn, SFG
OF- Mike Cameron, MIL

-AL Gold Gloves-
P- Mark Buehrle, CHW
C- Gerald Laird, DET
1B- Kendry Morales, LAA
2B- Ben Zobrist, TBR
3B- Chone Figgins, LAA
SS- Elvis Andrus, TEX
OF- Franklin Guttierez, SEA
OF- Carl Crawford, TBR
OF- Ryan Sweeney, OAK

-NL Silver Sluggers-
P- Micah Owings, CIN
C- Brian McCann, ATL
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Pablo Sandoval, SFG
SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF- Ryan Braun, MIL
OF- Adam Dunn, WAS
OF- Jayson Werth, PHI

-AL Silver Sluggers-
C- Joe Mauer, MIN
1B- Mark Teixeira, NYY
2B- Ben Zobrist, TBR
3B- Kevin Youkilis, BOS
SS- Derek Jeter, NYY
OF- Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
OF- Jason Bay, BOS
OF- Jason Kubel, MIN
DH- Adam Lind, TOR

MNF

2009-10-05T18:33:00.001-07:00

Am I the only one who didn't know that Brett Favre wasn't 40 years old yet? Apparently he turns 40 on Saturday. Didn't he start for the Packers back in 1978? I could've sworn him and Montana faced off in some epic battles.

Oh well. The Ageless Wonder is leading Minnesota over the Packers 14-7 in the second quarter.

Most Disappointing = Least Valuable?

2009-10-03T20:36:00.000-07:00

At the conclusion of every season, Jayson Stark writes a column handing out numerous traditional and not-so-traditional awards throughout the league. These include one of our recent favorites here at ATH, the prestigious Least Valuable Player Award. Now even though this award is completely fictitious and bears no significance whatsoever, I feel the need to make sure that no stupid selections for imaginary hardware go unnoticed.

One game left in the 2009 regular season. Let's do this.

Least Valuable Players

That's the title for this portion of his article. Looks familiar, right? Bastard stole it from the article written here the other day with the title of the same name. I'm pretty sure it's copyright infringement. We're looking into it.

NL: Milton Bradley, Cubs

Something is about to occur that happens very rarely throughout the sports world. More rare than a Pittsburgh Pirates playoff birth. More rare than a Cubs World Series win. More rare than a Derek Jeter-bashing article. More rare than an Alex Rodriguez-praising article. Even more rare--dare I say-- than a Juan Pierre homerun. Here it is... Milton Bradley is about to be DEFENDED, rather than condemned. I know. Mind-blowing. This is the kind of absurdity that Mr. Stark has forced upon me.

Is "disaster" too strong a word to describe the calamitous marriage of Bradley and a team that had won more games than any club in the National League in the two years before he showed up?

Yes. It is too strong of a word. "Disappointing" is acceptable, but not "disaster."

All right, how 'bout "catastrophe"?

Nah. Still too strong. Probably even stronger than your last adjective as a matter of fact.

Or "fiasco"?

I'd say that's about halfway between "disaster" and "catastrophe." Not really sure which direction you're trying to go here.

Whatever, the ever-combustible Bradley had himself about as cataclysmic a Cubs mini-career as anyone since, well, who? George Bell? Mel Rojas? Benito Santiago?

Neifi Perez? Todd Hollandsworth? Nomar Garciaparra? Eric Karros? Todd Hundley? Ismael Valdez? Eric Young? Willie Greene? Is the fact that there are so many players who had a "mini-career" with the Cubs that was as bad or worse than Bradley's hurting your case at all? Seems like it.

Bradley waged regrettable wars with his favorite umpires, bleacher creatures and media pals. He yanked himself out of games, lost track of the outs and -- maybe most amazing of all -- didn't do the one thing he'd done all his life: hit.

First of all, if you knew anything about Milton Bradley at all, you would know that he has a track record of being somewhat of a distraction. He didn't get along with Manager Eric Wedge when he was on the Indians. He threw things at fans while he was on the Dodgers. He missed the playoffs with the Padres after injuring himself during an altercation with an umpire (that one wasn't completely his fault, but still). It's not like this guy doesn't have a history of making mistakes. It should come as no surprise that the non-baseball aspect of Milton Bradley was once again an issue. The Cubs should have expected this going in.

Now, secondly, Mr. Bradley was not as awful of a hitter as you're making him out to be, Mr. Starky. He had a .378 OBP, which was second best of anyone on the team who played at least 85 games, and it was actually above his career average. His .345 WOBA was third highest on the team (.001 behind Fukudome) and not too far off from his career .357 mark. Overall, his offense was probably about the 4th most valuable on the team. And yet you chose this man as the Least Valuable Player in the entire National League.

He made it to home plate 553 times -- and still thumped fewer homers (12) than Kurt Suzuki, hit fewer doubles (17) than Everth Cabrera, drove in fewer runs (40) than Mike Fontenot and slugged under .400 (.397) for the first time since he was an Expo (2000 and 2001).

Kurt Suzuki had a .313 OBP and Cabrera had a .317 WOBA. Mike Fontenot--who is also on the Cubs-- had a .296 WOBA!!! Despite your misleading comparison tools, none of these players even came close to having the kind of offensive season that Bradley had. Not even close I say!

We'll never know what might have been if Bradley had just hit .318 in April instead of .118.

Bradley basically had two bad months this season. Okay, he had two awful months this season. Those two months came in April and September. For a four month span, though, he was actually really good.

May 1st-August 31
.282/.405/.429

Believe it or not, he had a .401 OBP on August 30 (.821 OPS) before he imploded with a horrible September. Obviously the first and last months count just as much as the four months in between, but it wasn't all bad for the Hasbro man this year (Hasbro. Milton Bradley. Get it? Hilarious). If I were to choose a "Least Valuable Player" for the Chicago Cubs this season, Hasbro wouldn't even be a finalist. Some Cubbies more deserving of the LVP would include Kevin Gregg, Alfonso Soriano, Angel Guzman, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot, Carlos Marmol, and Mike Hoffpauir. I would probably give the (dis)honor to Soriano. As you can see in our previous LVP post, he wasn't too impressive this season.

But it's too late now. The saddest part of this story is that this man doesn't just need a new team. He needs help.

That may be true. It's probably not good to speculate on one's mental status, but at the very least it seems that he may have some anger issues. However, it is a far cry to say he was the least valuable player on the Cubs, let alone in the entire league. This man had a 1.2 WAR. He was actually more valuable than the $5 million the Cubs paid him this year. Among players with at least 200 PA, there are literally 78 position players with a better case for LVP than that of Milton Bradley.

Okay. I'm done. The "once in a blue moon" occurrence is over. Based on Juan Pierre's last 1610 plate appearances, his next homerun will occur sometime between 2011 and 2012. Stay alert, people!

2009 Least Valuable Players

2009-10-02T14:53:00.001-07:00

I've decided to wait and hand out the final edition of the monthly awards until the conclusion of the regular season for reasons that I'm sure are obvious to all human beings. In the meantime, however, I thought it'd be fun to revisit a segment that gives special recognition to the players who least deserve it. That's right, these are the guys that make us wonder why their managers would continue to write their names on the lineup card day in and day out. They're categorized by position (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OFs, SP, RP) and each hitter was required to have a minimum of 370 plate appearances. These very prestigious awards are only reserved for the ones who continued their (lack of) performance embarrassingly deep into the season.

So, without any further adu, your 2009 LVP's!

C- Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay Rays
Stats:
.219/.259/.317
49 OPS+
.255 WOBA
-0.1 WAR

1B- Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers
Stats:
.242/.310/.388
80 OPS+
.298 WOBA
-3.1 UZR
-1.2 WAR

2B- Luis Valbuena, Cleveland Indians
Stats:
.244/.295/.403
79 OPS+
.301 WOBA
-5.3 UZR
-0.1 WAR

3B- Garret Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Stats:
.220/.300/.333
63 OPS+
.283 WOBA
-2.0 UZR
-0.9 WAR

SS- Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle Marines/Kansas City Royals
Stats:
.244/.273/.350
65 OPS+
.270 WOBA
-20.7 UZR
-2.1 WAR

OF- Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins
Stats:
.273/.296/.397
86 OPS+
.297 WOBA
-14.2 UZR
-1.6 WAR

OF- Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
Stats:
.232/.319/.438
93 OPS+
.331 WOBA
-16.9 UZR
-1.0 WAR

OF- Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Stats:
.241/.303/.423
85 OPS+
.314 WOBA
-12.4 UZR
-0.9 WAR

SP- Braden Looper, Milwaukee Brewers
Stats:
5.10 ERA
82 ERA+
1.47 WHIP
5.82 FIP
-0.8 WAR

RP- Seth McClung, Milwaukee Brewers
Stats:
5.10 ERA
83 ERA+
1.63 WHIP
6.12 FIP
-0.9 WAR

Don't give up, guys. Just last year Michael Bourn won an LVP award and he bounced back to have a 4.3 WAR. There's still hope. My apologies to Garret Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Emilio Bonifacio, Jeff Suppan, Chris Volstad and countless others. Perhaps you can make it all the way to the top (or bottom) next season!

Wishes Really Can Come True

2009-10-02T12:00:00.000-07:00

This is a couple weeks old, but I'm just now seeing it for the first time. If you too have missed out thus far, I encourage you to try and remain calm, as the following link may cause you to go into cardiac arrest.

FJM Reunion

That's right. It happened, people.

Joe Morgan's Eyes >>> Replay

2009-09-27T20:04:00.000-07:00

If you have been following Sunday Night Baseball for any of the past twenty years, you would have noticed that one of Joe Morgan's less redeeming qualities as a broadcaster is his reluctance to accept a dissenting opinion. Now, I'm not here to say that he's alone in this regard (I still think the WB made a mistake cancelling Road Rovers. Who cares that the ratings were bad?) but today's 438th edition of the Red Sox-Yankees Rivalry (TM) this season brought about this wonderful example of Joe's stubbornness (from MLB.com):

The Video

If you can't see the video, here is what happened:

With Nick Swisher on 2nd and no one out, Robinson Cano flied out to Jacoby Ellsbury on a fairly shallow fly ball. Swisher tags up and advances to third. Given the shallowness of the foul ball and Swisher's less than blinding speed, Joe Morgan thought that Swisher may have left early. Moments later, Paul Byrd throws to 2nd on appeal and Swisher is called out. On the replay where the catch and Swisher's tag attempt are synchronized, Swisher's foot is still on the bag. At worst, he left at the same time according to that view. For some reason, instead of agreeing with that assessment as Jon Miller did, Morgan somehow thinks he has the same view of the play as the umpire.

This leads to two questions:
1) How in the world can you have the same view if you're yards away?
2) How can you not see that his foot was still on the bag? Only because he leaned as if he left early? (though not in this video, Joe insinuated this)

If you think this is his first time overstating the margin of error of technology relative to his observation, read this piece from Baseball Analysts in 2006.

It is absurdity at it's finest.

Just When You Thought Fangraphs Couldn't Get Any Better

2009-09-16T01:26:00.000-07:00

They go and write something like this. I encourage you to read the comments as well.

Reynolds Recall Part III

2009-09-10T01:37:00.000-07:00

Albert Pujols hit two homeruns today, so naturally I decided that it was time to revisit our old friend, Harold Reynolds, from the MLB Network. If you're unfamiliar with the story I implore you to go here and catch up. This is a brief summation of Mr. Reynolds commenting on the apparent absurdity of the baseball predictions system, PECOTA--back in February:

"There aint no way Albert (Pujols) is getting 133 RBI's with that club. It aint happenin!"

A lot of time has passed since we last checked in on Pujols' RBI status back in June. Since then he's had to endure a couple of cold streaks, including a 15-game stretch in which he hit .207 with only 3 Runs Batted In (omg!). Let's take a gander at his progress, shall we?

Total: 124 RBI (2nd in ML)
Current Pace: 143 RBI

The Cardinals still have 21 games left, people. I wonder if they'll let the old scout in the straw hat make predictions on the show next year. Him and the futuristic, nerdy PECOTA computer thingy should face off. That would be epic...

Extremely Stupid Poll Nothingness

2009-09-03T12:58:00.000-07:00

I made that ESPN acronym up all by myself. Cool, right? Thanks. Here's a link to ESPN's latest poll question enititled "Who is the tougher out?" The options are none other than Albert Pujols and Babe Ruth. Yup. Babe Fuckin Ruth. The Saltan of Swat. The King of Crash. The Colossus of Clout. THE GREAT BAMBINO! (Yeah, Sandlot)

As of 1:09 p.m. on Thursday, September 3rd, approximately 8,033 people have voted. The results:

Albert Pujols- 51%
Babe Ruth- 49%

That's right, people. I didn't think it would be possible to overrate perhaps the greatest baseball player of our era, but sadly I was mistaken. Now don't get me wrong, Albert Pujols is awesome. I think it's safe to say that he is easily the best player in the game today. However, as good as he is, he drastically fails in comparison to Ruth. Allow me to demonstrate.

Career
Ruth- .474 OBP (2nd All Time--121 points above league avg)
Pujols- .427 OBP (13th All Time--88 points above league avg)

The Bambino also leads the Machine in SLG, OPS, OPS+, EQA, WOBA, and pretty much any other statistic you can think of--by a lot. But for the sake of this question all you have to do is look at OBP because the question specifically asks who is a tougher out. Obviously it shouldn't even be a debate. Offensively speaking, PRINCE Albert virtually has no chance of reaching the status of the KING of Crash (See what I did there? Prince/King... Classic. Plaschke would be proud). I realize that I'm probably setting myself up for disappoint by viewing any ESPN poll, but I felt the need to stick up for good 'ol Mr. Ruth. After all, if it wasn't for him I would have never been able to witness Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez steal home against the San Francisco Giants and then give a cool thumbs-up to Smalls up in the play-by-play booth.

The Five Months Awards

2009-09-02T08:52:00.000-07:00

AL MVP- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Joe Mauer, Ben Zobrist, Justin Verlander

AL Cy Young- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay

NL MVP- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Javier Vazquez, Dan Haren

NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder

AL Hank Aaron- Joe Mauer, MIN
Honorable Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis, Ben Zobrist

NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Honorable Mention: Brian Wilson, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell

AL Reliever of the Year- Joe Nathan, MIN
Honorable Mention: Andrew Bailey, Mariano Rivera, Matt Thornton

NL Rookie of the Year- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
Honorable Mention: Colby Rasmus, Seth Smitch, J.A. Happ, Randy Wells

AL Rookie of the Year- Elvis Andrus, TEX
Honorable Mention: Jeff Niemann, Brad Bergesen, Andrew Bailey, Brett Gardner

NL Least Valuable Position Player- Jeff Francoeur, ATL/NYM
Dishonorable Mention: Alfonso Soriano, Emilio Bonifacio, Willy Taveras

AL Least Valuable Position Player- Vernon Wells, TOR
Dishonorable Mention: Aubrey Huff, Orlando Cabrera, David Ortiz

NL Cy Yuk- Braden Looper, MIL
Dishonorable Mention: Chris Volstad, Ross Ohlendorf, Jamie Moyer

AL Cy Yuk- Trevor Cahill, OAK
Dishonorable Mention: Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie

-NL Gold Gloves-
P- Aaron Cook, COL
C- Bengie Molina, SFG
1B- Travis Ishikawa, SFG
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- Brendan Ryan, STL
OF- Nyjer Morgan, PIT/WAS
OF- Randy Winn, SFG
OF- Tony Gwynn Jr., SDP

-AL Gold Gloves-
P- Ricky Romero, TOR
C- Jason Varitek, BOS
1B- Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B- Ben Zobrist, TBR
3B- Evan Longoria, TBR
SS- Jack Wilson, PIT/SEA*
OF- Franklin Gutierrez, SEA
OF- Carl Crawford, TBR
OF- Rajai Davis, OAK

-NL Silver Sluggers-
P- Mike Hampton, HOU
C- Brian McCann, ATL
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Mark Reynolds, ARI
SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF- Adam Dunn, CIN
OF- Ryan Braun, MIL
OF- Matt Kemp, LAD

-AL Silver Sluggers-
C- Joe Mauer, MIN
1B- Miguel Cabrera, DET
2B- Ben Zobrist, TBR
3B- Michael Young, TEX
SS- Derek Jeter, NYY
OF- Shin-Soo Choo, CLE
OF- Jason Bay, BOS
OF- Johnny Damon, NYY
DH- Adam Lind, TOR

*I couldn't help it. Jack Wilson's defense has been so unbelievable that it just didn't feel right to not give him a gold glove. Technically he's played the bulk of his games in the National League this year...oh well.

JoeChat

2009-08-07T09:13:00.000-07:00

Alright, this obviously isn't FJM, but somebody's gotta tear this up, right?

Buzzmaster: Hey everyone. Joe's running about 10 minutes late. So we'll get started around 11:10 a.m. ET.

This should not come as a surprise to those who know Joe. He isn't a huge fan of computers, so to think that he would spend any more time than necessary on one is absurd. ABSURD I TELL YOU!

Buzzmaster: We've got Joe!

Yes! It was only a matter of time before he figured out that "internet" thing on his dial-up imac. Now let's brace ourselves for Joe's opening statement.

Joe Morgan: I want to clarify my position on the 103 list of people who tested positive in 2003. I do not view all the players as suspects, because I do not know who's on the list. The only time I'm suspicious of players is when it's been called for suspicion. Because I don't konw (sic) who's on the list, I do not look at Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter and Jason Varitek and think they are suspects. I do not use the lack of knowledge of names on the 103 list to form my own list. I believe people are innocent until proven otherwise.

So basically Joe will not be suspicious of players until they have tested positive. I'm not really sure why you would need to be suspicious of a player taking steroids if it's already been confirmed that the player took steroids. Whatever. Thanks for the heads up, Joe.

Gary (Buckeye ,Az): Joe, did you like the White Sox trade for Jake Peavey?

Joe Morgan: I didn't until I realized that he's going to pitch until the end of this month.

This makes no sense. Peavy won't be back until the end of this month. Okay, now we can move on.

When I first thought that he was out for the season, I didn't think it was a good move. But Ken Williams says they can get 6 starts out of him down the stretch. So then I think it's a good move. They're also looking at next year too.

A lot of things have to go right in order for Peavy to be back by the end of this month, let alone have six starts. Even so, I'm a little reserved about the move. His career numbers on the road, while pretty good, aren't nearly as impressive as they are at pitcher-friendly Yellowstone Park in San Diego. Peavy's thrown 114 fewer innings on the road throughout his career, yet he's given up 33 more homeruns. U.S. Cellular Field is also considerably favorable to hitters. Fangraphs did a nice piece on the trade. The White Sox gave up quite a bit, and Peavy's owed upwards of $15 million each of the next three seasons.

Anyways, at least Joe answered the question, even if it wasn't very helpful.

Sam (Boca): what moves can the Yankees make to improve their rotation before the postseason? one injury and they will have trouble brewing.....
Joe Morgan: Well, if they think they need that, they will make a move. I think they did a smart thing by not giving away players and making deals. Now if they get to September and have to do a waiver deal or something, they'll try to do it. I still think they need another starter, but I think they can get it done later without paying too hefty of a price.

Rook: Joe, what moves can the Yankees make to improve their rotation?

Joe Morgan: Well, Rook, they can make moves.

Rook: Perfect. Thanks.

Kent (Greenville): Do you think the Home Run Derby is the cause for Pujols' recent slump. Not a hit this past weekend. When was the last time that happened?

Joe Morgan: He didn't do well in the Home Run Derby either. He only had about 20-30 swings. I think he was on such a torrid pace and played at such a high intensity level, I think he needs a breather. I think he's mentally tired. He didn't get any time off during the all-star game, because he was the unofficial host. I think he needs a couple of days off and then he'll be back on track.

Gary (Buckeye,Az): Joe,what is your take on Milton Bradleys struggles this year?

Joe Morgan: I think it started when he first got hurt and the fans were expecting so much from him and he was expecting from himself and he put pressure on himself. He played maybe when he shouldn't have played. Baseball is a tough game to play when you're healthy, let alone when you're injured. I think he has time to regroup and get hot. I think between now and the end of the season he will get hot and raise his average. He's not a .240-.250 hitter. I think there's still more to come from him if he can get mentally focused.

Let's play a drinking game. Go back and read these last two responses from Joe and take a shot every time he says "I think." If you're not wasted by the fifth sentence then you are drinking water. If you don't have any alcohol, caffeinated beverages will also get you drunk. Good luck reading the rest of this post.

Edward (Nashville): Who is going to be the "under the radar" team in the playoffs this year?

Joe Morgan: I don't see anyone getting hot like the Rockies did a couple of years ago. But I do see some of the teams that are playing well now getting hot and maybe opening up a lead. I do see that happening. I don't think the races are going to be as close as they are now.

Rook: Joe, who is going to be the "under the radar" team in the playoffs this year?

Joe Morgan: A team that is playing well will perhaps get hot and open a lead.

Rook: Okay cool. Wait, you didn't say a team, though.

Joe Morgan: A team not like the Rockies.

Rook: Alright, that's better. For a second I thought you weren't gonna answer my question. That would've been funny, huh?

Joe Morgan: Well I can't say for sure whether or not it would have been funny because there's no way of knowing. And I don't want to speculate. There is perhaps a possibility that it could have been borderline humorous.

Rook: (**searches for upcoming Rob Neyer chats**)

Chris (Cincy): Why are there no consistently great teams like your Reds teams of the 70's? Even the top teams this year (Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers) seem to struggle with their consistency. What do you think is the cause of this?

Chris is definitely baiting him here. Two "consistents" in the middle of a comparison to the "good 'ol days." Nice. My guess is that Joe is going to hold a great deal of bias for his era while giving almost zero credit to today's MLB teams.

Joe Morgan: Well, that's a great observation. The point is that there aren't any great teams any more. Great teams have speed, pitching, defense, hitting, power. You don't have anybody with that combination any more.

Yankees, Angels, Rays.... Usually the teams with the best records are the ones that can hit, run, play defense, etc. The correct answer is the developmental progress of free agency. It is more difficult to keep a team together in today's game than it was in the 50's 60's or 70s. There are still great teams year in and year out, it's just nearly impossible to sustain that success within a franchise unless you have unlimited access to money, which I'm pretty sure is not the case with any team in professional sports. Yes, I know that includes the Yankees, but even they have a limit.

You have good teams, not great teams. The weaknesses show up more. Any time that happens, you'll lose 3-4 in a row. When your strengths show, you win 5 in a row. That's why the good teams have stretches. The Yankees won 9 in a row, but then lost 3 straight in Chicago. One thing to watch the rest of the way is whichever team can shorten their losing streaks, that team will win the division.

Teams that win more games than they lose will be more successful if they win a lot of games in a row and don't have long losing streaks. Grade "A" analysis brought to you by an Emmy Award Winner from your Worldwide Leader in Sports.

Elvis (Graceland): Do you think Matt Holliday can keep it up? Why was he not playing like this in Oakland?

Joe Morgan: Well, first, it's kind of like what I said about Milton Bradley. Holliday is a good hitter. He struggled early on, but he started to get hot right before he left Oakland. That doesn't mean he'll hit like that the rest of the season. Playing in Oakland was a downer for him, because you're playing on a team that doesn't excite you. It's a boring team to watch. They either strike out, walk or try to hit HRs. Jack Cust is a typical Oakland hitter. He either walks or hits home runs. It's just not an interesting team and that had an effect on Holliday. Plus the ball park is not easy to hit in.

2009 Oakland Athletics

694 Strikeouts--24th most in MLB
363 Walks-- 19th most in MLB
89 Homeruns-- 27th most in MLB

The A's have had 4,228 plate appearances so far this year. All of 1,146 of those plate appearances have ended in either a strikeout, walk, or homerun. That's good for 27 percent. Joe also said that Cust either walks or hits homeruns. This has happened in 18 percent of his plate appearances this year and 22 percent over the course of his career.

Oh, and since when were homeruns not exciting?

Kevin (Connecticut): Who are your AL and Nl Cy Youngs/MVPs right now?

Joe Morgan (11:37 AM): Well, the one thing to remember, there's a long way to go. In all of those awards, someone can still step forward. I think Pujols is the MVP in the NL. I still think Prince Fielder and Braun are legit candidates if the Brewers can win the division. As far as Cy Young, that's even more difficult for me, because I think people want to lean toward Tim Lincecum, but they ignore what Matt Cain has done. I think he's pitched more consistently from his first start to his last start than Lincecum. He's not going to get a lot of votes, but I think Jason Marquis has done a great job in Colorado. You always have to look at Santana, because of what he does for his team. He can get hot down the stretch and win many games in a row. It's hard to make a call, but those would be my leaders at the moment.

Cain has been more consistent than Lincecum..... Sometimes I think that Joe would prefer "consistency" over anything else. Even if the player is consistently bad, it seems like Mr. Morgan would give him credit and say stuff like "well you always know what you're getting with this guy." Lincecum leads Cain in the following categories: ERA, K's, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BAA, WHIP, K/BB, FIP, RAR, and WAR. Also, while I'm not really a fan of the statistic, he leads Cain in Quality Starts as well (19 to 15). I guess you could kinda use that as a measure of consistency. Whatever.

Buzzmaster: Thanks for chatting Joe!

I don't think that these chats serve any real purpose for humanity, other then to entertain the blogosphere. For all our sakes, I hope ESPN never realizes this.

Failure Isn't Immune to Broadcasters and Sportswriters

2009-08-07T00:01:00.001-07:00

While we here at ATH are proud to bring you sports with a hint of sarcasm at the expense of those covering sports, I thought it would be about time to give you an example of a fan taking failure into his own hands. Don't worry, it looks as though he will make a full recovery. (from theTampa Tribune website):

St. Petersburg authorities are investigating a man's fall at Tropicana Field on Wednesday night as the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox drew to a close.

The man was watching the game from the stadium's third level with his family, and when he boarded an escalator to get to the lower level, he hopped up on the railing and tried to ride it sidesaddle, St. Petersburg Fire & Rescue Lt. Joel Granata said.

If this man ends up suing the Rays for his own stupidity, I hope he spends the next week watching an infinite loop of this year's Home Run Derby.

The Four Months Awards

2009-08-02T02:11:00.000-07:00

NL MVP- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Chase Utley, Albert Pujols, Dan Haren, Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez

AL MVP- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Ben Zobrist, Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander

AL Cy Young- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez

AL Hank Aaron- Justin Morneau, MIN
Honorable Mention: Joe Mauer, Ben Zobrist, Kevin Youkilis

NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Honorable Mention: Rafael Soriano, Brian Wilson, Heath Bell

AL Reliever of the Year- Joe Nathan, MIN
Honorable Mention: J.P. Howell, David Aardsma, Andrew Bailey

NL Rookie of the Year- Colby Rasmus, STL
Honorable Mention: Andrew McCutchen, Randy Wells, J.A. Happ, Seth Smith

AL Rookie of the Year- Brad Bergesen, BAL
Honorable Mention: Brett Gardner, Andrew Bailey, Rickey Romero, Elvis Andrus

NL Least Valuable Position Player- Jeff Francoeur, NYM
Dishonorable Mention: Willy Taveras, Emilio Bonifacio, Daniel Murphy

AL Least Valuable Position Player- Vernon Wells, TOR
Dishonorable Mention: Jason Giambi, Aubrey Huff, Magglio Ordonez

NL Cy Yuk- Braden Looper, MIL
Dishonorable Mention: Jeff Suppan, Todd Wellemeyer, Bronson Arroyo

AL Cy Yuk- Trevor Cahill, OAK
Dishonorable Mention: Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Saunders, Armando Galarraga

-NL Gold Gloves-
P- Aaron Cook, COL
C- Bengie Molina, SFG
1B- Travis Ishikawa, SFG
2B- Felipe Lopez, MIL
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- J.J. Hardy, MIL
OF- Nyjer Morgan, WAS
OF- Colby Rasmus, STL
OF- Brett Carroll, FLO

-AL Gold Gloves-
P- Brad Berguson, BAL
C- Jason Varitek, BOS
1B- Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B- Ben Zobrist, TBR
3B- Joe Creded, MIN
SS- Jack Wilson, PIT
OF- David DeJesus, KCR
OF- Franklin Gutierrez, SEA
OF- Ryan Sweeney, OAK

-NL Silver Sluggers-
P- Mike Hampton, HOU
C- Brian McCann, ATL
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Mark Reynolds, ARI
SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLO
OF- Ryan Braun, MIL
OF- Raul Ibanez, PHI
OF- Adam Dunn, WAS

-AL Silver Sluggers-
C- Joe Mauer, MIN
1B- Justin Morneau, MIN
2B- Aaron Hill, TOR
3B- Kevin Youkilis, BOS
SS- Derek Jeter, NYY
OF- Shin Soo Choo, CLE
OF- Carl Crawford, TBR
OF- Bobby Abreu, LAA
DH- Adam Lind, TOR

Joe Morgan

2009-07-21T14:32:00.000-07:00

Taken from today's Joe Chat in reference to replay challenges being used in baseball as they are in football:

Joe Morgan: It's a very difficult thing to use replay in baseball. It's not like football. Football is segmented. Here's a play, here's a play. But baseball has one play following another.

This is probably the best thing I've read in approximately 8 months and 8 days. I miss FJM... and I love you, Joe.

Franklin Gutierrez Wins Games (or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Advanced Defensive Statistics)

2009-07-11T03:06:00.000-07:00

Win Probability, UZR, Batting Average on Specific Pitches or hit location, OPS, swinging strike rate. You may have heard some or all of those on baseball broadcasts lately. Given that such mentions aren't yet as commonplace as the triple crown stats or fielding, seeing or hearing such things is quite pleasant. Here's an example of that from the Seattle Mariners broadcast from last night (capture made by Jeff from the blog Lookout Landing in this post):

Too bad .png files aren't made of chocolate or else I'd eat it up.

Don't Hate the Player, Hate the Writer

2009-07-10T23:56:00.000-07:00

Gwen Knapp of the San Francisco Chronicle decided to write an article about Roger Maris. I decided to write about that article.

This is our 236th post. Let's do this thing.

Every time another slugger of recent vintage becomes linked to steroids, an array of old-timers weighs in on his viability for the Hall of Fame. After the New York Times reported two weeks ago that Sammy Sosa had tested positive in ostensibly confidential screening from 2003, Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg said that his fellow ex-Cub did not deserve a place in Cooperstown.

It's true that a lot of ex-ballplayers tend to this, and truth be told, it's getting kinda annoying. To all of the Hall of Famers who are reading this right now (which I'm fairly certain is roughly 68% of all inductees), I beg you to put an end to this trend. We the people all know that each and every one of you were perfect in every way. Nobody ever did anything illegal back in "the good 'ol days." Ty Cobb never bet on baseball or threatened players' careers in the middle of games by constantly going into bases spikes up, Gaylord Perry never rubbed vasoline on the top of his hat, Hank Aaron never took amphetamines. Real ballplayers threw back a bottle of whiskey each day and did pushups till their all-natural muscles couldn't bear to lift them anymore.

We get it. You guys were magnificent, incorruptible creatures. Let's move on.

Mark McGwire's rejection by the voters so far suggests that Sosa, his sidekick from the 1998 home run record chase, can hold off on writing an induction speech. But veterans won't get a say on this generation's integrity or Hall of Fame credentials for at least 15 years. Until then, the call belongs to a group of sportswriters.

In all honesty, I'm not sure if I'd vote Sosa in anyways. His numbers are good, but don't let those 609 home runs fool you too much (that sounds like a downright idiotic statement, I know). It's a tough call. That's a satirical banter for another day, though.

The old-timers, however, do have a solution. The Hall's Veterans Committee can make a statement about steroids and home runs without rushing to judgment or even punishing a single player. In fact, this solution is a feel-good maneuver: Bring Roger Maris into Cooperstown.

That's your "feel-good maneuver"? Complicating an already complicated voting process by letting in a player who isn't even remotely worthy? To whom would this make feel good? Yankee fans? Billy Crystal? Barry Pepper? Can I ask any more questions in a single paragraph? No?

His record of 61 home runs can never be restored. It's impossible, even though the report on Sosa supported a very strong suspicion that no one in major-league baseball ever hit 62 home runs in a season without chemically inflating his muscles.

There's simply not enough proof to strip the statistics from the three men who surpassed Maris a total of six times: Barry Bonds, McGwire and Sosa. But the Veterans Committee can rewrite history, cleaning up some of the damage left by other, very negligent guardians of the game.

I agree, there's not enough proof to strip the statistics and records from McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds. Is there enough proof that Roger Maris is deserving of being inducted into the Hall of Fame? Thus far I have seen no such evidence. The only support for induction that's been given is one season. Better yet, ONE STATISTIC from that season.

The committee has repeatedly rebuffed Maris, whom the sportswriters also snubbed. But his 1961 season deserves a fresh look. Can anyone argue that it isn't more impressive today than it was in the entire 37 years that Maris held the home run record?

Eh, I actually think it would be more impressive if the mark were set today, seeing as the game has expanded quite a bit since the cool whiskey-wielding 60s. Also, it is hilarious--and at the same time extremely aggravating-- that she says Maris has been "snubbed" by the sportswriters. This man has a career WAR worse than Julio Franco, Tony Fernandez, Devon White and even--gasp-- JIM RICE! Yeah, I went there.

So far, Maris' overall career totals have been the impediment to induction. He finished with 275 home runs and a .260 batting average over 12 seasons, numbers that don't warrant a place in Cooperstown.

Numbers.That.Don't.Warrant.A.Place.In.Cooperstown.

Why is this article being written again? Oh, that's right, to convince us that Maris deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Maris' claim to a plaque would be that one magical summer. Yes, winning back-to-back MVP awards in 1960 and '61 should count for something, but the 61 home runs are his ticket.

To say that Roger Maris being inducted into the Hall of Fame would be a grave injustice is an understatement. Nay, if Maris were inducted it would serve as the SINGLE GREATEST MOCKERY IN THE HISTORY OF PROFESSIONAL SPORTS!... Okay, so I followed up an understatement with a slight exaggeration. I'll leave it up to you to find the middle ground.

The committee already has admitted several people with career statistics that don't overshadow Maris'.

I literally just looked up every single non-negro league player ever voted in by the Veterans Committee. Overall, there are roughly about 100 (yeah, it took me a while). Since WARP from BP is the only thing that goes back far enough it will be used as the main tool of comparison. Out of all of those Hall of Famers, I found five with a career WARP3 total less than that of Roger Maris. I will now list those five players, along with a modern day player who's overall career production mirror that same player. Here we go:

Hall of Famer (Modern Day Player)

Tommy McCarthy (Scott Podsednik)
Heinie Manush (Adam Kennedy)
Rube Marquard (A.J. Pierzynski)
Chick Hafey (Cliff Floyd)
George Kelly (Mark Kotsay)

Yup, that's right, voting in Roger Maris would be saying that he is slightly better than an Oakland A's second baseman with a .329 Career OBP and a .260 Career EQA (Kennedy). And for that this man deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.

I grew up listening to Richie Ashburn do Phillies radio broadcasts and knowing that he was my mother's favorite player, so I should be pretty biased. But Ashburn does not belong in Cooperstown any more than Maris does. He was a .308 hitter with a .396 on-base average, and he was a beloved announcer. But he didn't hit for power, didn't steal many bases and never finished higher than seventh in the MVP balloting.

Richie Ashburn... You chose RICHIE ASHBURN. I gave you five perfectly awful-as-shit players, and you decided to settle with Richie Ashburn??? Tommy McCarthy compiled a 15.9 Career WARP3 over 13 seasons. That's right, he averaged a WARP3 of 1.2 per season. In fact, in six of his thirteen seasons he had a negative impact in production (including a season in which he was worth -5.5 wins!). And yet, you did not choose this man. Nope, instead you decided to go with someone who is widely considered to be one of the best centerfielders of all time. Let's see how this comparison holds up:

Career WARP3
Ashburn- 76.2
Maris- 34.6

Best 5 Year Stretch
Ashburn- 35.8 ('51-'55)
Maris- 23.1 ('60-'64)

Career OBP
Ashburn- .396
Maris- .345

Ashburn's five year peak was more valuable than Maris' entire career. Yup, the only way this would have been a good comparison is if back in 1952 little boy Richie had decided to call it quits after his first few seasons in the big leagues. Unfortunately for this article, though, history was not nice to its credibility. There are hundreds of players in the Hall of Fame. A handful of them probably don't deserve to be there, but I am of the opinion that Ashburn is definitely not one of them.

Some people might argue that drugs were around in Maris' day. But even the earliest steroid users lifted weights, a practice most baseball players mocked well into the '70s, saying it would damage their swings.

So now Roger Maris should be rewarded because of a common misconception throughout baseball prior to the 1970s? Okay, I'm cool with that. Although, to be fair, we must now include all the pitchers who didn't throw a split-finger for the first 100 years of baseball, because the pitch had not yet been invented. Let's be just here, people!

My favorite part of the article comes here at the very end: Maris' plus and minuses.

HALL WORTHY?

MARIS PLUSES

Oh man. I'm excited. Are you excited? I'm excited.

-- Did not do steroids

I would venture a guess that there are over 100,000 players that have met this same criteria.

-- Two-time AL MVP (1960, '61)

Eh, that's pretty cool, I guess. But you're still only citing two seasons, and it's debatable whether or not he deserved those MVP's in the first place.

-- 61 home runs in a season, breaking Babe Ruth's record. All who have surpassed Maris have been linked to steroids.

One season. This entire article is basically endorsing Maris' Hall of Fame candidacy on one season. He had a .372 On-Base Percentage in that season.

MARIS MINUSES

Here we go. By now I think I could write a fuckin novel on "Maris Minuses."

-- 275 home runs and a .260 batting average over 12 seasons.

That's the end of the article... I am now going to watch the movie "*61" so that Barry Pepper can make me not hate Roger Maris.

Wins Are A Very Valuable Statistic For Pitcher Evaluation

2009-07-08T16:51:00.000-07:00

Exhibit A:

Colorado Rockies pitcher, Alan Embree, didn't even have to throw a single pitch in order to pick up the win in Tuesday's game against the Nationals.

I know the Nationals are bad and all, but you should have to throw a goddamn pitch in order to get a win. I vote for a rule change. Either make it necessary that a pitcher has to throw a pitch before they can be considered the pitcher of record, or get rid of win/loss records for pitchers altogether.

I would vote for the latter.

The Three Months Awards

2009-07-02T01:36:00.000-07:00

AL MVP- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, Roy Halladay

AL Cy Young- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez

NL MVP- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Tim Lincecum, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, Josh Johnson

AL Hank Aaron- Kevin Youkilis, BOS
Honorable Mention: Russell Branyan, Ben Zobrist, Justin Morneau

NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez

AL Reliever of the Year- Andrew Bailey, OAK
Honorable Mention: J.P. Howell, Joe Nathan, David Aardsma

NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Honorable Mention: Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson

AL Rookie of the Year- Brett Gardner, NYY
Honorable Mention: Elvis Andrus, Nolan Reimold

NL Rookie of the Year- Colby Rasmus, STL
Honorable Mention: Seth Smith, Casey McGehee

AL Least Valuable Player- Vernon Wells, TOR
Dishonorable Mention: Orlando Cabrera, Jose Guillen

NL Least Valuable Player- Brian Giles, SDP
Dishonorable Mention: Garret Atkins, Jimmy Rollins

AL Cy Yuk- Kyle Davies, KCR
Dishonorable Mention: Armando Galarraga, Trevor Cahill

NL Cy Yuk- Josh Greer, SDP
Dishonorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo, David Bush

-AL Gold Gloves-
P- Bradley Bergesen, BAL
C- Jason Varitek, BOS
1B- Paul Konerko, CHW
2B- Placido Polanco, DET
3B- Joe Crede, MIN
SS- Marco Scutaro, TOR
OF- David DeJesus, KCR
OF- Nelson Cruz, TEX
OF- Franklin Gutierrez, SEA

-NL Gold Gloves-
P- Aaron Cook, COL
C- Bengie Molina, SFG
1B- Adrian Gonzalez, SDP
2B- Brandon Phillips, CIN
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- Jack Wilson, PIT
OF- Nyjer Morgan, WAS
OF- Matt Kemp, LAD
OF- Colby Rasmus, STL

-AL Silver Sluggers-
C- Joe Mauer, MIN
1B- Russell Branyan, SEA
2B- Aaron Hill, TOR
3B- Evan Longoria, TBR
SS- Jason Bartlett, TBR
OF- Ben Zobrist, TBR
OF- Torii Hunter, LAA
OF- Ichiro Suzuki, SEA

-NL Silver Sluggers-
P- Dan Haren, ARI
C- Brian McCann, ATL
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- David Wright, NYM
SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLO
OF- Raul Ibanez, PHI
OF- Ryan Braun, MIL
OF- Carlos Beltran, NYM

What's Wrong with This Headline?

2009-06-26T18:08:00.000-07:00

From the Daily News: The Mets they are thriving just by surviving obstacles

For those interested in reading the full article, here it is.

Reynolds Recall Part II

2009-06-23T00:18:00.001-07:00

In case you missed it the first time around, this is Harold Reynolds commenting on the apparent absurdity of the baseball predictions system PECOTA--back in February:

"There aint no way Albert (Pujols) is getting 133 RBI's with that club. It aint happenin!"

Well, Harold, when we last addressed this Pujols was on pace to shatter the projection. Since then he's slowed down a bit, but I'm still satisfied with the results over the first 70 games.

Total: 68 RBI (1st in ML)
Current Pace: 156 RBI

Do you still think the old man in the straw hat could do a better job?

Lineup Malfunction?

2009-06-20T21:21:00.000-07:00

I'm watching the Dodgers/Angels game tonight and I notice something unusual: Matt Kemp is batting ninth. I thought this to be rather strange because I was fairly certain he was having a pretty good year. So I paused Battlestar Galactica, rolled over on my mother's couch, put on my reading glasses (they almost broke recently, by the way, luckily I was able to save them with some masking tape), saved my World of Warcraft game, and did some good 'ol statistical investigating on the computer. Here's what I found:

2009
.315/.381/.482
.381 WOBA
125 OPS+
18 SB (85%)

I'm dumb-founded on this one guys. Maybe Torre thought HCG'd-out Manny Ramirez was occupying spots #1-8? Either that or he confused Kemp's stats with that of Furcal (246/.325/.333) or Loney (.279/.345/.374) or Mark Freakin Loretta (.244/.354/.280). My most educated guess would be that he called up Dusty Baker before the game and asked him for suggestions.

Thoughts? I know I'm missing some obvious explanations.

Intangibilistic Infatuations

2009-06-19T00:58:00.000-07:00

Okay, "intangiblistic" isn't technically a word, but role with me on this. More than any other sport, Major League Baseball seems to be the most attractive for pointing out the "intangibles" of a player. Perhaps it's the history of the game, perhaps it's the poetry (am I right, Plaschke?), or perhaps it's the fact that it's been forever dubbed America's National Pastime. The fact is that very seldom does someone who is very good at their job get recognized for what they actually do well. Chase Utley is a prime example of this.

Today, in June, Rick Sutcliffe will attempt to explain why Utley is emerging as the next MVP candidate on the Phillies. That's right, it is never too early to start MVP talk, even when there's three and half months left in the season.

The Phillies might have another MVP on their hands. Ryan Howard won the MVP award in 2006 and Jimmy Rollins won it in 2007, but it's another name from the Phillies' lineup that comes to my mind for the 2009 National League MVP trophy.

Chase Utley is one of the most--if not the most--underrated players in all of baseball. The fact that he's never even come close to winning an MVP is pretty mind-boggling when you consider the numbers he's put up the past four seasons:

2005- 7.4 WAR (T-3rd in NL)
2006- 6.8 WAR (4th in NL)
2007- 8.0 WAR (2nd in NL)
2008- 8.1 WAR (2nd in NL)

You could very easily make a case that this man has been the best player in baseball since 2005. And yet, twice he has been deemed to not even be the best on his own team. Anyways, the point is that recognition for Chase Cameron Utley is long overdue.

Also, this is an MVP article in June.

No, not Raul Ibanez, although his numbers obviously have been very impressive so far and he certainly could get consideration come award season. The guy I'm focused on right now for MVP is second baseman Chase Utley. When you talk to the team, the name mentioned most often when you are talking about what manager Charlie Manuel calls "special players" is Utley's.

Cool. They say he's "special" because of his great defense, right? Or perhaps the fact that he is continually able to produce far better offensively (defense, too) than any other second basemen in the game?

(Sidenote: Does anyone else think it's weird that Sutcliffe ended the paragraph with "Utley's"?)

Utley is special. Obviously, the fans have known this for a while. He is leading the National League votes for the All-Star Game and has been voted to start the past three All-Star Games. Look at his offensive numbers (.309, 15 homers, 44 RBIs, 47 runs scored) and you notice he is strong in all categories, especially when you consider those numbers are coming from a middle infielder. Utley, however, did go 0-for-4 Wednesday in the Phillies' loss to the Blue Jays.

Alright, we got our first mention of stats. Albeit they aren't really beneficial at all for evaluation, but stats nonetheless. So, Sutcliffe, what else makes this guy really valuable?

What makes his performance even more special is the fact that he is coming off extensive hip surgery in the offseason. Right around the start of May 2008, he started feeling pain in that hip, but he somehow gutted through the rest of the year all the way through October. This guy is tough; he could have been a really good boxer.

He could have been a really good boxer..... I feel like Manny Pacquiao would be extremely insulted by Sutcliffe's apparent ignorance as to just how much pain an everyday boxer is forced to endure. Oh, and this is still an MVP article in the middle of June.

We know he can take a punch. He has those lightning-quick hands that he shows off all the time in batting practice. Coaches and players talk about his tremendous strength from the elbows down, and that gives Utley the ability to take the bat anywhere in the zone at any time. That is part of why he is so successful at the plate. As with Howard, Utley's defense is getting better each and every year.

First of all, I can't believe that you are continuing to compare the characteristics of a Major League Baseball Player to that of a freakin boxer. A BOXER. A man who gets punched in the face, ribs, sternum, collarbone, and abdomen for a living (among other things). Also, while Utley's defense has been utterly awesome throughout the course of his career, he's been rather subpar so far this season. His 0.6 UZR ranks 11th among all second basemen, his .825 RZR is 13th, and his 15 OOZ are good for 12th. History tells us these numbers are going to rise by season's end, but it would seem as though he's most likely not going to match the defensive prowess he obtained last season. By the way, you'd be hard-pressed to find any evidence that suggests Utley's defense is "getting better each and every year". His amazing defensive display in 2005 pretty much shoots down this theory. I hate it when writers say things just to say them. C'mon Sutcliffe, you should know by now that there are entire blogs dedicated to scrutinizing stupid shit sportswriters put out on a daily basis. We live in our mothers' basements, we will find you. Trust me, we have nothing better to do.

I should mention that my mother's basement does have a calendar, though, and it says we're in the month of June, and yet I'm reading an article about the candidacy of a player for MVP...Weird.

But something that was said a few years back really illustrated just how special Utley is. His former teammate, Aaron Rowand, paid him the ultimate compliment by saying Utley was everything you could ask for in a teammate, a friend, a husband, a father and a man. To me, that says everything you need to know about the guy.

How to score big points with Rick Sutcliffe so he writes a column about you deserving to be an MVP candidate:

Step #1- Become his friend.
Step #2- Become a woman's BOYfriend, propose to her until she says yes, and then proceed to marry her.
Step #3- Make a baby with said wife (or perhaps someone else instead, it would appear that either are acceptable).
Step #4- Possess both the X and Y chromosomes.

We are five paragraphs into this column and the only tangible evidence brought forth for Utley's MVP candidacy were four statistics--if you can really call them that-- which were mentioned in parenthesis. Instead, Sutcliffe has opted to go more in depth about boxing and how hitting a baseball with a bad hip is like getting punched in the face by Floyd Mayweather.

It's so hard to repeat as champions, but a lot of people think that, at least on paper, this year's team is better than last year's Phillies. That's an awfully big compliment, considering the 2008 squad won 92 games and the World Series. There are two big reasons people are saying this group is better: The Phillies added Ibanez to the lineup, and, at least so far, it appears they are headed toward an entire season with a healthy Utley. Every special team has at least a couple of special players. Utley certainly fills that role for the Phillies.

Believe it or not, that is the end of the column. Rick "Red Baron" Sutcliffe took time out of thousands of humans' lives to say absolutely nothing... in about 483 words. I think we've all learned a few things here today: first, don't read columns that have the word "MVP" in them until September. Second, don't read Rick Sutcliffe columns that have words in them. And third, Chase Utley sadly remains one of the most underrated players in the game--at least for what he does on the field. He is, however, becoming more and more recognized for being a great four-tool teammate (friend, husband, father, man). I guess that's a start.

A King is Crowned

2009-06-09T16:04:00.000-07:00

Although this is not how I imagined it happening:

Finally

2009-06-04T16:54:00.000-07:00

Finally, after what seemed like months of playoffs (oh wait, it was) the Finals begin tonight. I'm aware that any type of prediction I make will be discredited due to an admittedly large amount of bias, so I'll refrain from doing such. However, suffice to say that I have claimed from the beginning that the Magic presented the toughest matchups for the Lakers. I wouldn't be surprised if the series went seven games, or if went five. I would be surprised, though, if it went as many as Tony Kornheiser's prediction--three.

The Two Months Awards

2009-06-01T17:09:00.000-07:00

AL MVP- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria, Justin Verlander, Jason Bartlett

AL Cy Young- Zack Greinke, KCR
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee

NL MVP- Raul Ibanez, PHI
Honorable Mention: Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Mike Cameron
NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum, SFG
Honorable Mention: Javier Vazquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Johan Santana

AL Hank Aaron- Justin Morneau, MIN
Honorable Mention: Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, Evan Longoria
NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols, STL
Honorable Mention: Raul Ibanez, Adrian Gonzalez

AL Reliever of the Year- Scott Downs, TOR
Honorable Mention: Jose Arredondo, J.P. Howell, Darren Oliver
NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Honorable Mention: Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero

AL Rookie of the Year- Elvis Andrus, TEX
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello, Scott Richmonds
NL Rookie of the Year- Seth Smith, COL
Honorable Mention: Ryan Roberts, Ramon Troncoso

AL Least Valuable Player- David Ortiz, BOS
Dishonorable Mention: Yuniesky Betancourt, Josh Fields
NL Least Valuable Player- Garret Atkins, COL
Dishonorable Mention: Brian Giles, Chris Young

AL Cy Yuk- Armando Galarraga, DET
Dishonorable Mention: Scott Baker, Trevor Cahill, Fausto Carmona
NL Cy Yuk- Jeff Suppan, MIL
Dishonorable Mention: Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers, Braden Looper

-AL Gold Gloves-
P- Gil Meche, KCR
C- Jason Varitek, BOS
1B- Lyle Overbay, TOR
2B- Placido Polanco, DET
3B- Adrian Beltre, SEA
SS- Elvis Andrus, TEX
OF- Nelson Cruz, TEX
OF- Franklin Gutierrez, SEA
OF- Ichiro Suzuki, SEA

-NL Gold Gloves-
P- Aaron Cook, COL
C-Geovany Soto, CHI
1B- Travis Ishikawa, SFG
2B- Brandon Phillips, CIN
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- J.J. Hardy, MIL
OF- Nyjer Morgan, PIT
OF- Colby Rasmus, STL
OF- Mike Cameron, MIL

-AL Silver Sluggers-
C- Joe Mauer, MIN
1B- Justin Morneau, MIN
2B- Ian Kinsler, TEX
3B- Evan Longoria, TBR
SS- Jason Bartlett, TBR
OF- Jason Bay, BOS
OF- Adam Jones, BAL
OF- Torii Hunter, LAA
DH- Luke Scott, BAL

-NL Silver Sluggers-
P- Micah Owings, CIN
C- Brian McCann, ATL
1B- Albert Pujols, STL
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
3B- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF- Raul Ibanez, PHI
OF- Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF- Justin Upton, AZD

The Greatest Site in the History of Mankind.

2009-05-30T00:34:00.001-07:00

In honor of his first game in the bigs (for those wondering about that 0 for 4, he wanted to show compassion to as a single hit from his bat would have caused the city of Detroit to disappear from the map), I give you this: The Official Matt Wieters Facts Site

Also, our earlier homage to Mr. Wieters: The Word

Objectivity?

2009-05-27T02:09:00.000-07:00

I would like to announce that I am officially jumping on the "Zack Greinke Bandwagon." Sure, it's still extremely early, but here's to him attempting to have one of the best seasons by a pitcher. Ever.

Join me?

Screw Being PC!

2009-05-26T22:29:00.000-07:00

Interim GM of the Nationals, Mike Rizzo, on Daniel Cabrera being designated for assignment (from MLB Trade Rumors):

According to Chico Harlan of the Washington Post, the Nationals designated pitcher Daniel Cabrera for assignment tonight. Acting GM Mike Rizzo was frank: "I was tired of watching him." We all were, Mike. Cabrera told Harlan he would not accept a minor league assignment.

Live Blog: Memorial Day Sunday Race Day

2009-05-23T16:26:00.000-07:00

Live Blog: Memorial Day Sunday Race Day

Meaningless Miscellaneous

2009-05-19T12:39:00.000-07:00

The following is a compilation of the best active players to have never been selected as an All-Star for their respective leagues. In the interest of full disclosure I should clarify that I think it's foolish to put any stock into All-Star selections when evaluating a player, this is just more of an interest piece than anything else. To qualify a player must have played in at least five seasons in the Major Leagues (prior to the 2009 season), currently be a member of a MLB team, and--most importantly--never been an All-Star. Relievers were required to have played in four seasons prior to 2009.

Listed under each player is what I deemed to be their most "All-Star caliber" season. Unfortunately, Fangraphs' WAR figures only go back to 2002, so I was forced to use Chone's Baseball Projection system instead. It's still very good, the downside is that the WAR values on pitchers appear to not include FIP, which is why I made sure to list that as well. The same goes for position players and WOBA. Here's the results:

-Starting Lineup-

C- Bengie Molina
2005: 2.5 WAR, .335 WOBA, 108 OPS+
1B- Carlos Pena
2007: 5.4 WAR, .430 WOBA, 172 OPS+
2B- Chone Figgins
2005: 4.5 WAR, .339 WOBA, 101 OPS+
3B- Adrian Beltre
2004: 10.1 WAR, .424 WOBA, 163 OPS+
SS- Orlando Cabrera
2003: 3.4 WAR, .354 WOBA, 105 OPS+
OF- Matt Stairs
1998: 4.1 WAR, .380 WOBA, 132 OPS+
OF- Pat Burrell
2002: 4.3 WAR, .390 WOBA, 146 OPS+
OF- Raul Ibanez
2006: 2.9 WAR, .359 WOBA, 125 OPS+
DH- Travis Hafner
2006: 6.2 WAR, .449 WOBA, 179 OPS+

Honorable Mention: Juan Pierre, Jose Guillen, Aubrey Huff, Chris Gomez, Julio Lugo, Kevin Millar, Doug Mientkiewicz, Adam Kennedy, Fernando Tatis, Mark DeRosa, Craig Counsell, David Dellucci

-Starting Rotation-

SP- Tim Wakefield
2002: 3.7 WAR, 3.62 FIP, 162 ERA+
SP- Kelvim Escobar
2007: 5.1 WAR, 3.39 FIP, 134 ERA+
SP- Aaron Harang
2007: 5.7 WAR, 3.71 FIP, 125 ERA+
SP- A.J. Burnett
2002: 3.8 WAR, 3.19 FIP, 122 ERA+
SP- Jarrod Washburn
2002: 4.3 WAR, 3.71 FIP, 141 ERA+

Honorable Mention: Jeff Suppan, Rich Harden, Ryan Franklin, Jeff Weaver, Brett Myers, Brett Tomko

-Bullpen-

RP- Scot Shields
2006: 2.8 WAR, 3.27 FIP, 159 ERA+
RP- Rafael Betancourt
2007: 4.3 WAR, 2.22 FIP, 312 ERA+
RP- Huston Street
2005: 3.2 WAR, 2.75 FIP, 253 ERA+
RP- Octavio Dotel
2002: 3.8 WAR, 2.43 FIP, 234 ERA+
RP- Latroy Hawkins
2003: 3.2 WAR, 2.38 FIP, 243 ERA+

Honorable Mention: Dave Weathers, Bobby Howry, Jorge Julio, Alan Embree, Matt Herges, Julian Tavarez, Jonathan Broxton, Kyle Farnsworth

More Meaninglessness...

-Adrian Beltre currently has 1,613 hits and is 30 years old (I know, he seems older, but I'm pretty sure the Dodgers signed him when he was like eleven, so he's been around for a while. Anyway...). If he were to play ten more seasons in the Major Leagues (including this one) while averaging a mere 142 hits a year, he would finish with 3,000 for his career. Bill James' Career Assessments Tool has him at a 23.3% chance of reaching that exclusive club.

-Edgar Renteria, 33 years old, could reach 3,000 hits by averaging 133 over the next seven seasons (including this one). Bill James has him at a 34.4% chance. Derek Jeter currently has a 97% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Ichiro is at 27.6% and A-Rod has a 90.2% chance.

-Zack Greinke's 2009 statline thus far:
1.61 FIP, 0.833 WHIP, 766 ERA+, 9.75 K/9, 6.50 K/BB

-Juan Pierre has been more valuable through 31 games than he was in 119 games last season. He has a 0.7 WAR so far this season compared to a 0.1 WAR last year. Current season totals: .419/.476/.554--.452 WOBA

-The Pittsburgh Pirates' pythagorean W/L record actually puts them above .500. So far this season, the unluckiest teams have been the Pirates, Indians, Rockies, and Nationals, all of whom have underperformed their pythagorean records by at least three games.

-There is a very simple formula for defeating the Oakland Athletics: throw a left-handed pitcher. Oakland has the worst record in baseball at 3-11 against lefties, compared to a 10-10 record against righties. Statline against LHP: .201/.284/.285.

-Victor Martinez has the best VORP in baseball, followed by Longoria, Beltran, and Bartlett (who continues to play out of his mind).

-Christian Guzman has walked once in in 124 plate appearances. Lucky for him he has a very good batting average (.385) so his OBP isn't struggling... yet. Others have not been so fortunate. Bengie Molina has walked twice in 141 plate appearances for an OBP of .312. Dioner Navarro has two walks through 122 plate appearances with a .205 OBP. Jeff Francoeur, who is usually such a big condoner of walking, has a whopping five walks through 154 plate appearances, which is good for a .266 OBP.

-Franklin Gutierrez is insanely good at defense. He is far and away the best outfielder in the AL and through 307 innings has a 1.000 Revised Zone Rating (RZR). He also has the fourth most Out Of Zone plays(OOZ) of any player at any position.

That's all I've got for now. I'll be sure to get back to more sarcastic satirical banter as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

Great Moments in Crow Eating

2009-05-16T13:51:00.000-07:00

In the 11th inning of today's Twins-Yankees game, play-by-play man for YES Michael Kay suggested that the Yankees should have one Alex Rodriguez bunt over Mark Teixeira over to 2nd. To be fair, A-Rod was in a funk similar to his '05 ALDS where he didn't hit but walked plenty. Having said that, it's still ALEX FREAKING RODRIGUEZ!

Might be time to re-check Baseball-Reference.com, Mikey.

The Hard Hitting Analysis of Baseball Tonight

2009-05-14T19:23:00.000-07:00

Eduardo Perez delivered a segment discussing the woes of the Seattle Mariners where he mostly just talked about nothing. And he punctuated it with this brilliant insight:
And one thing I can tell you: baserunning, hitting, pitching -- and especially the bullpen -- is not only important in the National and the American League, but all around baseball.

This is the kind of great stuff you can only get from the World Wide Leader in Sports.

I just have to say ...

2009-05-11T20:09:00.000-07:00

... that I think the Lakers should be embarrassed* AND the Rockets should get some fucking credit.**

:)

Rockets in 6.

*Aaron Brooks is like a baby.
**Aaron Brooks is all of 6'0" and managed to make up for Yao's offensive production. What?

With All The Steroids And Question Marks Surrounding Players Throughout The Sports World, Only One Thing Is Certain

2009-05-08T13:01:00.001-07:00

Brett Favre will never, ever really retire.

Moneyball: the Movie is Getting Weird

2009-05-08T01:30:00.000-07:00

I've been openly excited about the idea of Moneyball: the Movie on this space before. I think the story makes a good baseball movie. I assumed the stats would have little part in it, which makes sense. As much as I'm a stat-head, it just doesn't make a great film.

But, apparently they're going to have a pretty big spot in the movie, since Bill James is going to be a main character.

Oh, and he's also going to be a cartoon.

“My current plan is to animate him,” Soderberg revealed to MTV News while promoting his Tribeca Film Festival entry, “The Girlfriend Experience.”

“We have this sort of oracle character that appears throughout and declaims various issues and he’s essentially supposed to be Bill James,” Soderberg said. “He’s your host in a way…. The background will be real but the person who is supposed to be him will be animated.”

Why the switch between realism and animated fantasy in this case? “It needs a gimmick,” Soderberg explains. “It needs something to make it not Masterpiece Theatre. His writer voice is so big, I thought to literalize it is going to actually harm it. I need to make his voice funny and when he comes on you’re happy to see it.”

No rickroll this time. Bill James is a cartoon.

Um, whatever. I guess we'll wait and see. I guess it has some random potential to be. . . good. . .

Joe Posnanski, though, is the best baseball writer on the planet, and he likes it. And he also contributed this greatness inspired by the Rays cartoon adventures:

“Oh no, Professor Francoeur has taken on-base percentage off the scoreboard!”
“Now we’re stuck with just batting average!”
“Leave slugging percentage up there, man!”
“I have no idea what the true value of Kenji Johjima is now!”

Then, Big Bill James walks over. And he says to the last fan: “Uh, Johjima’s plate discipline isn’t too good. He has only walked once this year. He only walked 19 times in 409 plate appearances last year.”

Professor Francoeur: So, at least we meet, Mr. Bill James.
Bill: Yes, it’s nice to meet you.
Professor Francoeur: Likewise. But now, I will take your statistic, on-base percentage, off the scoreboard forever! Ah ha ha ha!
Bill: It’s not my statistic. It has been around for more than a hundred years. Branch Rickey was a big proponent of on-base percentage, for instance.
Professor Francoeur: Yes, well, if you had not written that book Moneyball …
Bill: I didn’t write Moneyball.
Joe Morgan (special guess appearance): He’s right. It was Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane!
Professor Francoeur: Um, well, fine! So, if Billy Beane had not written that book Moneyball …
Bill: It wasn’t Billy Beane either. It was Michael Lewis.
Professor Francoeur: Michael Lewis? The guy who wrote The Blind Side and Liar’s Poker?
Bill: I guess so, yeah.
Professor Francoeur: Well, um, OK, I’m confused now. Joe, as long as you’re here, can you talk about how you were able to walk as much as you did?
Joe Morgan: It’s about heart, Jeff.

Why Jeff Francoeur Will Never Be A Good Hitter

2009-05-05T13:01:00.000-07:00

A comment by Jeff Francoeur taken from Jerry Crasnick's most recent article on plate discipline:

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"

Wow. This man has walked four times in 105 plate appearances and has an OBP of .305.

LBJ MVP

2009-05-04T16:57:00.000-07:00

Lebron James is the 2009 NBA MVP. No surprise here, he was obviously the right choice for the award, and not because of the everlasting intangible-infested reasons cited on Around The Horn today. He was the right choice because he had the most Win Shares ever for an NBA player in a single season who is not named Michael Jordan. He also had the best PER (Player Efficiency Rating) in basketball, right in front of Dwayne Wade and Chris Paul. It perplexes me as to how it took so long for James to get this first MVP, since he's arguably been the most valuable player for the past few seasons.

Congratulations on the award, King James. It's just too bad you'll have to wait at least another year for that other trophy.

One Month Awards

2009-05-02T03:29:00.000-07:00

Believe it or not, we've already wrapped up the first month of Major League Baseball. It seemed to have gone by so quickly with the majority of attention and excitement being drawn to the NBA playoffs, NFL draft, Tiger Woods, etc. But since we are officially out of April, I thought I'd go ahead and give out a number of MLB awards. I fell a little behind and didn't get this done right at the conclusion of April, so the following are what my votes would look like were the season to end today, which is the second of May. Bon appetit!

AL MVP- Zack Grienke
Honorable Mention- Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis
NL MVP- Albert Pujols
Honorable Mention- Chase Utley, Dan Haren

AL Cy Young- Zack Grienke
Honorable Mention- Gil Meche, Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young- Dan Haren
Honorable Mention- Javier Vazquez, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana

AL Reliever of the Year- Scott Downs
Honorable Mention- Frank Francisco, Jose Arredondo
NL Reliever of the Year- Jonathan Broxton
Honorable Mention- Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez, Ryan Franklin

AL Hank Aaron- Kevin Youkilis
Honorable Mention- Victor Martinez, Evan Longoria
NL Hank Aaron- Albert Pujols
Honorable Mention- Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez

AL ROY- Ricky Romero
Honorable Mention- Andrew Bailey, Scott Richmond
NL ROY- Brian Barden
Honorable Mention- Mark Difelice, Jordan Schafer

AL LVP- Ty Wigginton
Dishonorable Mention- Alexi Casilla, David Ortiz
NL LVP- Brian Giles
Dishonorable Mention- Cody Ross, Edwin Encarnacion

AL Cy Yuk- Mark Hendrickson
Dishonorable Mention- Brandon McCarthy, Fausto Carmona
NL Cy Yuk- Aaron Cook
Dishonorable Mention- Jeff Suppan, John Lannon, Brett Myers

AL Gold Gloves
P- Gil Meche
C- Jason Varitek
1B- Chris Davis
2B- Placido Polanco
3B- Joe Crede
SS- Marco Scutaro
OF- Nelson Cruz
OF- Franklin Gutierrez
OF- David DeJesus

NL Gold Gloves
P- Paul Maholm
C- Bengie Molina
1B- Casey Kotchman
2B- Kazuo Matsui
3B- Geoff Blum
SS- J.J. Hardy
OF- Jay Bruce
OF- Nyjer Morgan
OF- Eric Byrnes

AL Silver Sluggers
C- Victor Martinez
1B- Kevin Youkilis
2B- Ian Kinsler
3B- Evan Longoria
SS- Marco Scutaro
OF- Adam Jones
OF- Jason Bay
OF- Nick Swisher
DH- Adam Lind

NL Silver Sluggers
P- Yovani Gallardo
C- Yadier Molina
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Chase Utley
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
SS- Ryan Theriot
OF- Raul Ibanez
OF- Manny Ramirez
OF- Carlos Beltran

Notes: Hanley Ramirez is actually having the second best fielding season of any shortstop in the National League. It's doubtful that he'll be able to keep that up, but he did show vast improvement last year in comparison to the season before. If he can keep up this defense and just get his hitting back to where it normally is, he'll probably become the best player in baseball... Javier Vazquez continues to fly well under the radar. He has the second best FIP in the MLB, behind only Zack Grienke... The Silver Sluggers actually seem pretty close to what they'll probably end up being by season's end, save the shortstop position, which I'm sure will be different next month... Among all qualified players, Brian Giles has actually been the least valuable in baseball with a -0.9 WAR. That's pretty surprising. What's also surprising are some other names that make out the bottom 25 position players: Jimmy Rollins, Derrek Lee, David Ortiz, Garret Atkins, and Jason Giambi... Albert Pujols is awesome.

One month down, five to go.

Reynolds Recall

2009-04-30T18:03:00.000-07:00

Remember when Harold Reynolds so adamantly objected to PECOTA's prediction that Albert Pujols would drive in 133 runs this year? He said,

"There aint no way Albert (Pujols) is getting 133 RBI's with that club. It aint happenin!"

Well, while I put hardly any stock into the RBI statistic at all, I found it satisfyingly interesting to see Pujols' total through the first 23 games of the season.

Total: 28 RBI (1st in ML)
Current Pace: 197 RBI

Stick that stogie in your mouth and smoke it!

The Plaschke Papers

2009-04-30T12:32:00.000-07:00

Reading a Bill Plaschke article in the LA Times is like reading poetry. Sheer poetry, as if it were written by Walt Whitman himself... while drunk... and high on drugs.

Who's ready to talk NBA Playoffs?!

The most important celebrity at Staples Center on Monday night wore no baseball cap, beard stubble or attitude.

Eva Longoria-Parker? Nah, she was probably at a different game. Dyan Cannon? Clay Aiken?

The most important celebrity at Staples Center did not have torn jeans, a pouty smile or affected swagger.

Hmmm... Meryl Streep? It's gotta be Meryl Streep. She fits the bill perfectly.

But, like the rest of them, he didn't stroll in until the second quarter.

And, at times, it did seem as if he wasn't really watching the game.

Ouch! Celebrities show up late and don't pay attention to the games. Burn! Also, I'm a HUGE fan of those one sentence paragraphs, especially when they both begin with unnecessary conjunctions.

So awesome.

And, no, we're not sure when he's coming back.

Damn. I just now noticed it's a "he." That rules out Streep. We're 73 words into this column and have gotten absolutely nowhere.

On a night when Will Ferrell or Leonardo DiCaprio filled the room, the most important celebrity was Andrew Bynum.

It's weird that he says "or" instead of "and" between the mentioning of Will Ferrell and Leornardo DiCaprio. Is he not sure if one or both were there? Can he not tell them apart? I wonder if he's ever seen a Will Ferrell movie, or a DiCaprio movie since Titanic. Anyways, at least we've finally named a basketball player!

On a night the Lakers smoothly paved over their first-round series against the Utah Jazz with a 107-96 victory and a four-games-to-one clinching, there remained an unsettled rumbling.

What next?

Bynum or sell?

Bynum or sell. Cute. I think Reali would "mute" him for that one, though.

Waiting for Lakers in the second round is probably Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets. Waiting for them is probably an inside threat that the Jazz could only fake.

Waiting for them is the first big postseason mission for Andrew Bynum.

Who continues to keep the Lakers waiting.

Let's play a game. Go back and see how many grammatical errors you can find in those last four sentences (if you can call them sentences). Although, in the interest of full disclosure, I should tell you that it will take a long time and won't be very fun.

Also, does anybody else feel like watching the movie "Waiting"?

On Monday, for the fifth consecutive postseason game, he stumbled and hacked and was taken out before he could hurt anybody.

In a dozen minutes he had five rebounds but zero baskets and two turnovers and an embarrassing late stretch in which he allowed the Jazz's Paul Millsap to score nine consecutive points.

Andrew Bynum tore his MCL. The severity of the tear usually needs 3-4 months to heal before beginning sports activity. He came back in a little more than two months time. He also missed 32 games, so it's probably a bit premature to write him off after a few poor playoff games.

His quickest move was after the game, when he left before reporters could ask the questions that I'll ask right now.

Has he recovered enough from this season's knee injury to make an impact here? Are his legs strong enough? Is his focus sharp enough?

After watching him this last week, which included an early exit from a practice with knee issues, the answer would be no.

Obviously. I mean he did tear his MCL and all. Plaschke then goes on to cite quotes from various Lakers players (and Phil Jackson), who basically all share the same sentiment: it takes time.

"In the playoffs, the intensity is different, the energy is different, the officiating is different, you just have to get used to it," said Gasol. "It takes a while."

And it can't happen on the bench, which is where Bynum spent much of the last three games of the series, even joking there with the struggling Jordan Farmar on Monday, which is certainly symbolic of something.

How dare he talk to a fellow player on the bench! While smiling no less!

Yep, Bynum finished a far distance from the starting lineup in which he began these playoffs.

But game by game, it became apparent that something was wrong. Either he couldn't stay out of foul trouble, or he couldn't stay in the moment, and finally Jackson just couldn't trust him.

He had 15 rebounds the entire series. He made nine baskets the entire series. He averaged one foul about every five minutes.

He also averaged a mere 15 minutes played per game. Over the last three games of the series he played 7, 7, and 12 minutes respectively. Obviously his numbers are going to be down with such an insufficient amount of playing time. There were some things he did well, such as blocking four shots in game two while making 5 of 11 from the field. Not exactly what the Lakers would like from him right now, but still pretty good.

If the Lakers had blown this game (Game 5), the onus would have been on Bynum. Yet with only practices on the schedule in the coming week, is there any way that he can get into strong enough playoff-playing shape to make sure this doesn't happen again?

I believe he can absolutely get to where he needs to be in order to be effective, just probably not in the time span that most Lakers' fans would like. Keep in mind that the NBA playoffs last about nineteen months, so he's still got a good amount of time until he has to be ready for someone like Denver or Cleveland, for instance. Did you know the NBA takes 16 teams to the playoffs, out of 32? Can you imagine if the MLB took 16 teams for the playoffs? I bet that would make Grif pretty happy.

Moving on.

The Lakers reached the NBA Finals last year without him, and against a clearly depleted Western Conference there seems little doubt they don't need him to get that far again.

But the kind of Lakers team that shows up in the NBA Finals depends on the kind of toughness and presence that Bynum can give them before then.

Honestly, I feel like a healthy Bynum wouldn't make THAT much of a difference if the Lakers were to make it to the NBA Finals. In all likelihood, it's going to be the Cavs or Celtics, neither of which have a dominating inside presence to begin with (barring some type of return by Garnett). The only scenario that would prove difficult in the paint--in my opinion--would be the Orlando Magic, whom the Lakers lost both games to this year, with Bynum showing little effectiveness in either of them. They would definitely need him to be healthy in order to combat the inside presence of Dwight Howard, especially if he decides to elbow Pau Gasol in the chest, hence damaging Gasol's spine and leaving his body paralyzed from the neck down.

Like I said, though, the NBA playoffs go on for an eternity, so Bynum will probably be much further along by the time the Finals roll around.

Yet after one series, the most important celebrity in the Staples Center on Monday night could only be described with the most infamous celebrity announcement.

Andrew Bynum has left the building.

No colon? Really? Did you ever take an English class?

Bill Plaschke, the man who refuses to write paragraphs containing more than two sentences, writes for the LA Times and has previously won an award for National Sports Columnist of the Year.

And... he likes to eat genitalia.

Steve Phillips: Homework Optional

2009-04-29T12:17:00.000-07:00

Reader Gina sent an email with a quote from Steve Phillips on Sunday Night Baseball. Apparently, he could be heard saying:

[The Cardinals] don't K much, but they don't walk much either. They just put the ball in play.

The St. Louis Cardinals don't walk much, even though they're 5th in baseball. So I guess we can file this under, "Announcers Saying Things Just to Sound Smart Without Doing Their Homework."

Did That Just Happen?

2009-04-28T23:45:00.000-07:00

I really like Matt Vasgersian as a PBP guy. He's usually bright, speaks well, and keeps a game from being boring or brain-dead. So he's not usually the type of "bad sports journalism" that we tend to go after here, but, in the words of George Oscar Bluth: come on!

For when this video comes down, after the chilling footage of Brad Hawpe being taken off the field following an errant throw that landed on his head, Vasgersian tries to ease the awkward segue. . . and fails miserably. His response? Interrupting Mitch Williams's statement that you, "never like to see that," by asking if the EMT working on the situation is Donovan McNabb. Vasgersian is then reminded by his producer that he's live. As Billy Ripken says in appropriate response: "Dude. What's wrong with you?"

For whatever it's worth, Vasgersian showed up in the Kissing Suzy Kolber comments section to offer this statement:

I am an idiot .. Save the racial stuff which is just flat out wrong, almost all of what has been posted on my regrettably horrific timing is spot on .. It was a bad decision made on live tv and i can absolutely understand how that make an announcer sound insensitive. Bad on the spot judgment. Nobody feels worse about it than I do guys.

The War of the Baseball Highlight/Analysis Shows Continues

2009-04-23T21:52:00.000-07:00

I just tuned in to the midnight version of Baseball Tonight. Guess who stopped by? Why none other than Mr. PECOTA himself, Nate Silver:

I'm guessing this is his "Soon I shall rule the world" face. Anyway, it was pretty neat seeing him. I do not know if he'll be a semi-regular but it seems as though BBTN just went "check" to MLB Tonight. Who will win this war? Who knows? I still think MLB Tonight has a few more pawns left. As long as the bar continues to rise, we should all be happy.

Also, did anyone notice how flustered Buck Showalter seemed when they made note of defensive efficiency? A Harold Reynolds moment, perhaps?

Photo from Minnesota Independent

This is Incredibly Fitting

2009-04-21T15:56:00.000-07:00

Katey Rich, who has been covering Moneyball: the Movie for Cinemea Blend (and is very good at her job usually), had this to say:
Soderbergh's planned adaptation of the best-selling non-fiction book about... baseball statistics.

I have absolutely no idea why anyone would be interested in this movie, even with the added value of Pitt and Martin.

Just one example of this type of commentary I've come across since the project was announced.

Considering how much type baseball pundits spend arguing about "moneyball" without actually understanding the theories behind it, people arguing about how bad a movie the book will be without actually understanding what the book is about is no less than perfect.

DePo Gets Cast

2009-04-21T15:10:00.000-07:00

In our ongoing attempt to be your Entertainment Weekly of films based on sports books based on a geeky culture, we have a Moneyball: the Movie update.

According to Variety, Billy Beane's wunderkind assistant has finally been cast.

Who is our useless computer geek who says stupid things like, "maybe we should look in to this Youkilis character?"

Demetri Martin?

So, I've never heard of Demetri Martin. I don't know a thing about him. I've never even seen his face before. Apparently he's from Comedy Central, which doesn't match the DePodesta in the book, but it does match the DePodesta in real life.

In any case, I want to combine my amatuer baseball analysis with my amatuer film affection in to an interpretation of what this will mean for the film, but I don't have any sort of base of knowledge by which to postulate here.

So, instead, here are nine minutes of Paul DePodesta live on stage:

A Guide to Sabermetric Satire

2009-04-20T15:03:00.000-07:00

Instead of doing either a parsing of bits of a poorly written/misinformed article or a serious mini-survey of an issue that comes to mind, I will make an attempt at giving those who dislike statistical analysis or the people who perform such studies some tips on how to write proper satire of such subjects. The genesis of this comes from a pair of blog posts at Seattle Sportsnet

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

Alex, if you happen to read this, just think of this as an olive branch. ;)
Now that we got that out of the way, here are a few things to keep in mind:

1) Get our heroes right
In any good anti-sabermetric diatribe, it's essential to latch onto the right people. This could be analysts, front office people, well known blog writers, or players. One of those surely isn't Steve Balboni. He's neither the powerful, plodding walk machine that people assume was the ultimate point of "Moneyball" nor is he the underrated, defensive wizard that seems to be the raison d'être for those who don't give a darn about stat analysis. Attacking false idols isn't funny. It's just a bunch of fail.

2) Keep our ballpark activities straight
There's really no one way we enjoy the game just like there's no one single way those who don't know UZR if it smacked them in the behind. If there is something that we like, it's this: Good baseball! We do enjoy baseball. Instead of attacking how we don't enjoy it, just be creative in poking fun at what we enjoy at the park. Just keep in mind that what people write about and what they do at the ballpark tend to be different. ;) If saber-friendly people don't enjoy Felix Hernandez, why do USSMariner and Lookout Landing get tremendous joy from seeing him pitch (that is, when Felix isn't ODing on fastballs earlier).

3) Keep up with the trends
Topical humor works. Dated humor is tougher to pull off. As I mentioned in Point 1, we're past the point of praising Adam Dunn. That's so 2003.

So the next time you want to get your piece mocked on ATH, keep these rules in mind. Don't mess up so badly that I have to do satire theory posts.

What Year Is It?

2009-04-16T11:30:00.000-07:00

Bob Costas is doing the play-by-play on MLB Network right now for the Indians/Yankees game. I'm confused, because it automatically makes me feel like the game holds a significant amount of importance, like it's the playoffs or something. It also makes me feel like it's 1998.

Weird... Kinda cool, though.

A Hilarious and Absurd Soap Opera Gets Better

2009-04-16T03:20:00.000-07:00

I really, really hate putting Jim Rome on this blog, but this is the only audio I could find of this, and it's just too hilarious to pass up.

(Pro Tip: Fast forward to 2:08 to minimize the Romesuck.)

My word that's awesome. It's just so perfect.

(Also, just this little clip and hearing Rome's shtick and need to drive absolutely every point in to the ground and spell out ever single joke reminds me why I hate him so much.)

Gotta Look Out For Them Former Phillies!

2009-04-14T16:42:00.000-07:00

Mitch Williams of the esteemed "MLB Network" just said, and I quote, "Bobby's (Abreu) not a bad outfielder."

-Abreu's UZR last three years-
2006: -14.4
2007: -2.8
2008: -25.6

-Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus last three years-
2006-2008: -52

That -52 over the last three years is good for fourth worst among all MLB right fielders. It's barely better than Adam Dunn and more than twice as bad as Ken Griffey Jr., who I'm pretty sure hasn't been able to sprint since 2001.

Bobby Abreu is many things, a bad outfielder is certainly one of them.

Andruw Jones Likes Me More Than He Likes Rook

2009-04-14T01:08:00.001-07:00

2/3 with two walks, a double and a home run.

Does It Get Any Better Than This?

2009-04-12T17:24:00.000-07:00

Steve Phillips is now a part of the "Sunday Night Baseball" broadcast team, alongside Joe Morgan and Jon Miller. This, without a doubt, is the best news of the young season. I've watched half an inning of the Cubs/Phillies game and already we have a gem from our good friend, Joey M. (I like to rhyme). For a few minutes, Joe went on about how the Cubs manager, Lou Piniella, splits up his righties and lefties in the batting order and how it isn't smart to give your best hitter, Aramis Ramirez (presumably), fewer at-bats because it really doesn't make much of a difference to have consecutive righties or lefties. Okay, sounds reasonable enough, right? Ah, but wait, this is Mr. Morgan we're talking about, we should know by now that he just can't leave it at that. So he proceeds to say this:

**Paraphrase**
"You see, in Philadelphia their three best hitters--Rollins, Utley, and Howard-- are left-handed, but they bat them all in a row. That's the difference between Manuel (Phillies Manager) and Lou."

He goes on to cite this quite a few times as he chastises Piniella for batting Ramirez fifth in the lineup as opposed to having his best hitters in their deserving spots regardless of whether they bat right or left. There's only one thing wrong with this comparison that Joe keeps pointing to: THE PHILLIES HAVE NOT ONCE HAD A ROLLINS/UTLEY/HOWARD BATTING ORDER THIS SEASON. In fact, the only time Manuel did that during the entire '08 season was that strange two week stretch where he had Utley batting second, followed by Rollins and Howard (not a horrible idea, btw, just strange in the sense that he never did it again).

I don't understand how Joe Morgan can consistently be allowed to consistently say stupid shit on a consistent basis despite his consistent idiotic remarks week in and week out.

Yes, it's now been nearly five months since FJM disbanded, and I am sad.

Andruw Jones Likes Grif Better Than Me

2009-04-10T02:19:00.000-07:00

In his first 46 plate appearances with the Dodgers, Andruw Jones had four hits.

In his first 5 plate appearances with the Rangers, Andruw Jones has three hits.

In 75 games with the Dodgers, Andruw Jones never had a three-hit game.

In 1 game with the Rangers, Andruw Jones has one three-hit game.

$18 Million.... Unbelievable.

R.I.P Nick Adenhart: 1986-2009

2009-04-09T14:10:00.000-07:00

This is a photo from Adenhart's performance last night, in which he pitched six scoreless innings while striking out five against the Oakland Athletics. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Adenhart's family, friends, and the Angels organization.

"He's really their team MVP."

2009-04-08T16:22:00.000-07:00

Dave O'Brien on Jason Bartlett. Let's have a look at the Rays' individual WAR totals in 2008.

Evan Longoria 5.3
B.J. Upton 4.6
James Shields 4.2
Carlos Pena 3.7
Andy Sonnanstine 3.6
Matt Garza 2.9
Carl Crawford 2.7
Akinori Iwamura 2.7
Dioner Navarro 2.7
Grant Balfour 2.2
Gabe Gross 2.2
Scott Kazmir 2.0
Eric Hinske 2.0
Jason Bartlett 1.8

Well, I mean, Gabe Gross and Eric Hinske aside, it sure does seem obvious to me that no one helped the Rays win games more than Jason Fucking Bartlett.

Oh, and as far as that "terrific" defense? At least in 2008. . .

UZR: 1.9
+/-: -1

Yup.

AtH Bracket Challenge Final

2009-04-07T01:47:00.001-07:00

I win.

Hey, it's Opening Day

2009-04-06T11:47:00.000-07:00

This was going on outside when I woke up:
... and this season's Opening Day is happening almost a week later than usual! (Retractable roofs, please!)

Yesterday when I was driving back to Michigan from Earlham College in Richmond, Indiana I caught a sports show on a radio station out of Cincinnati. The host (Allen/Alan something) spent about 6 minutes talking about how STUPID it is to have Willy Taveras lead off because his OBP is so low and more importantly, how it doesn't matter what the leadoff hitter's
batting averge is so long as he's getting on base. He went on to say he knows that Dusty Baker is a scribbler so SURELY he has scribbled out a lineup that has Willy T hitting somewhere other than first. (The only place he SHOULD be hitting is 8th, unless you're a manager named Tony La Russa.)

Then he went on to talk about, like, football or some shit so I tuned out. And the station got fuzzy anyway and the only thing I could get to come in on AM was some financial show out of Detroit.

I just realized that I'm watching the Reds right now, and ... Taveras isn't even playing. And oh shit, the guy who is not Steve Phillips is talking about how teams are trying to quantify defense! This will be good!

And Phillips is talking about how all of these people working on it are making judgment calls about how hard balls are hit and that means it's flawed. "Because the statistics don't match what my eyes say, it makes me doubt the veracity of the statistic." I'm pretty damn sure he actually said what his eyes SAY. (That was after talking about how one metric came out and said that Jeter's the worst defensive shortstop and Chase Utley's the best at second, neither of which he agrees with.)

I .... don't even know what to say. Hahaha.

ATH Bracket Challenge: Final Four Update

2009-04-02T11:42:00.000-07:00

So with the Final Four this weekend, here's a little look at how we've all done, with nifty graphics. Click the pictures for a full view of every bracket.

First thing you should know: we all suck.

Matt

Matt's doing pretty well, leading the group with 45 correct picks and 88 points (19 ahead of second place); though he's second by a small margin in potential points remaining. He got half his Final Four correct, but he's hurt by his champ, Louisville, getting eliminated in the Elite Eight.

If North Carolina loses -- even though he has them in the title game -- Matt wins.

Goose

Goose solidly going in to the Elite Eight (5/8, one Final Four team lost). Then, in two days, his bracket fell apart, losing his entire remaining Final Four in those games.

He did well enough through the early rounds he could still finish second, but he doesn't have a chance to move beyond that anymore. That's rough.

Grif

The only games that matter for ATH are games involving North Carolina. Grif is in third, despite a historically bad showing getting just one of his Final Four correct. He is the only person whose champ is still alive, so if North Carolina wins it all, Grif wins the Challenge of Fail. If UNC beats Villanova, he clinches second. If they lose, the standings are set with Matt in first, Goose in second, Grif in third and. . .

Skye

Skye actually did the best in the opening weekend, but lost advancing teams at a high rate. She lost Final Four cinderellas Maryland and Texas in the second round, and the rest of her F4 was eliminated in the Elite Eight. With no teams still playing, she's doomed to last.

We should all bury this and pretend it never happened.

To Anyone Confused About Yesterday

2009-04-01T23:25:00.000-07:00

With April 1st now come and gone, I thought I would put down an explanation of yesterday's post.

I first read the Curious Case of Sidd Finch in a Best of Sports Illustrated book I had as a kid. At first I believed it and wanted to know where this man had gone. Then I figured out it was a joke a long time later (you must remember, Wikipedia didn't exist then) when SI ran a little piece on it. It has since earned a place in my heart as one of the greatest pieces of sports literature ever put to paper.

With April 1st around the corner this year, I decided to make a playful homage to the article in a contemporary setting using my own favorite team. After doing so, another Rangers fan told me how I could take it from playful homage to hilarious in joke: make it about Neftali Perez.

To those who follow the Rangers, Neftali Perez is a legend. We hear writers and announcers for other teams rave about him constantly and how great a pitcher he is. How his arm is going to single-handedly turn the team around.

Making him even more amazing is this: no one has ever seen Neftali Perez. There's a Rangers prospect named Neftali Feliz who gets a lot of hype, but no Perez. So, in Rangers circles, the enigmatic Perez has become a figure of legend.

I hate explaining jokes, but I understand my piece of whimsy yesterday may have gone over more than a few heads. You may now laugh.